Let's start with the question of
cash as ballast.
Cash can serve as portfolio stabilizer just like bonds, and because cash is so stable, you can use less
cash as ballast and achieve the same outcome as more bond ballast in a mixed portfolio.
Going a step further, you can approximate the effect of bond ballast using smaller amounts of
cash as ballast instead.
With
cash as ballast, the above graph shows the ride along the way is much less bumpy than using 100 % stocks and not too different than using larger amounts of bond ballast.
In Article 7.3, we found that the normal advantage of bonds over
cash as ballast in a mixed portfolio with stocks is currently absent, because bonds are not expected to provide a real return above inflation anytime in the foreseeable future.
Not exact matches
But Constellation's $ 1 billion all
cash deal for
Ballast Point isn't panning out quite
as well
as company executives had hoped.
At the same time, bonds still perform a similar
ballast function
as cash.
As interest rates rise, intermediate duration bonds are expected to slowly return to their proper place in the mid-term bucket, but for right now, an equally good choice for «safe»
ballast in the mid-term bucket is
cash.
However, to select a percentage of bonds within this range we must also factor in the amount of
ballast held
as cash in the short - term bucket.
We saw in Article 7.3 that small amounts of
cash can provide very stable portfolio
ballast as compared to larger amounts of bonds.
But there are times, like right now, where
cash is nearly
as good
as bonds, and can be used just
as effectively
as bonds for the short - term
ballast portion of your portfolio.
But there are times, like right now, where
cash is nearly
as good
as bonds, and can be used just
as effectively
as bonds for the short - term
ballast portion of your portfolio (
as discussed more in Articles 7.3 and 8.3).
The approach of using
cash for
ballast now and bonds for
ballast when interest rates rise, does not completely address the advantages of
cash as a reserve for short term expenditures and investment opportunities.
The end result using less
cash ballast is nearly the same
as using larger amounts of intermediate term bond
ballast.
When intermediate bonds yields become measurably better than
cash, say about 4 %, it is probably time to reconsider using bonds
as ballast instead of
cash.
As you would expect, over the long term the bond
ballast (Portfolio 3) does better than the
cash ballast (Portfolio 2).