And this point dovetails with the other point as far as since we don't pretend to know the precise timing of
when bubbles kind of unwind or
when the busts will finally reach a bottom, the idea is that we can actually be in the right quartile of activity, in other words I never try to
catch the very top of a bubble, I don't try to ride things to the very end, and similarly I don't mind
catching falling knifes.
[People tend to forget how long commodity cycles actually last, so they keep trying to
catch a
falling knife, and / or pick a bottom... but the best time to buy only comes
when people finally & completely abandon the sector].