This might
cause changes in cloud cover, due to consequent reductions in relative humidity, so you have to stop those too because they are a feedback.
No matter what (unknown) physical process
causes the changes in cloud cover, these changes are observed during a sun cycle.
Nowhere in the paper is there a mention of a «mechanism», which
caused this change in cloud cover and reflectivity.
Not exact matches
This flexibility is designed to facilitate a higher concentration of intermittent renewable resources — such as wind and solar — than is currently possible because, by having such flexible gas - fired plants, grid operators can respond to sudden
changes in renewable generation
caused by variations
in wind speed or
cloud cover.
But I just read
in the press release: «Hence, variations
in cloud cover caused by cosmic rays can
change the surface temperature.
I know Lindzen has a theory that a
change in tropical
cloud cover will offset greenhouse - gas -
caused warming, the unproven «iris effect».
For example, episodic deviations
in cloud and snow
cover, dust and smoke, etc, will have some radiative effect that could
cause some global average temperature
change.
This would
cause a
change of 4.75 degrees K for the 100 % reference
change in GCR over the 11 year solar cycle (and a non physical decrease of more than 100 %
in cloud cover — are negative high
clouds cooling and negative low
clouds warming?
If the loss of heat by the oceans is
caused by a
change in radiation balance, the primary source of the
change should be a
change in (mainly tropical)
cloud cover.
WASHINGTON — A study on how much heat
in Earth's atmosphere is
caused by
cloud cover has heated up the climate
change blogosphere even as it is dismissed by many scientists.
The satellite data shows that
changes in cloud cover was the
cause of all recent warming.
Dr. Roy Spencer has proposed a hypothesis whereby some unknown internal mechanism
causes cloud cover to
change, which
in turn
changes the reflectivity (albedo) of the planet, thus
causing warming or cooling.
In short, Dessler argues that
cloud cover change is a feedback to a radiative forcing, for example increasing greenhouse gases, while Spencer argues that
clouds are
changing due to some other, unknown
cause, and acting as a forcing themselves.
You have not cited a third possibility (out of the infinite range of possibilities), no climate
change associated with CO2 (due to, for example,
cloud cover providing negative feedback), with current increase due to natural variability; or how about possibility four, that increase
in CO2 concentrations are
caused by the temperature rise, which is
in turn
caused by (for example) increased solar activity resulting
in increased biomass activity etc. etc..
This effect
causes a total swing of about three percent
change in cloud cover.
«The overall slow decrease of upwelling SW flux from the mid-1980's until the end of the 1990's and subsequent increase from 2000 onwards appear to
caused, primarily, by
changes in global
cloud cover (although there is a small increase of
cloud optical thickness after 2000) and is confirmed by the ERBS measurements.»
The Pavlakis et al (2008) paper «ENSO Surface Shortwave Radiation Forcing over the Tropical Pacific» identifies the variations
in surface downward shortwave radiation over portions of the Pacific Oceans
caused by El Nino - produced
cloud cover changes.
A slight
change of ocean temperature (after a delay
caused by the high specific heat of water, the annual mixing of thermocline waters with deeper waters
in storms) ensures that rising CO2 reduces infrared absorbing H2O vapour while slightly increasing
cloud cover (thus Earth's albedo), as evidenced by the fact that the NOAA data from 1948 - 2008 shows a fall
in global humidity (not the positive feedback rise presumed by NASA's models!)
From Tallbloke's pdf: «The coincidence of these three spikes raises the question of whether the spike
in the SST series was even
caused by bucket - intake
changes, since such
changes obviously could not have
caused the spikes
in the MAT and
cloud cover series.»
The cooling of the sea between 1948 and warming thereafter are entirely accounted for
in the shift
in the mass of the atmosphere that lies behind the
change in wind strength and the flux
in ozone that
causes the
cloud cover to
change.
Instead, Spencer believes most climate
change is
caused by chaotic, natural variations
in cloud cover.
But when they discussed
changes in cloud cover, they mentioned that they couldn't tell from their data whether Spencer and Braswell's thesis about
cause and effect applied.
New paper finds
changes in cloud cover caused global brightening & dimming, not man - made aerosols
Again I want to emphasize that my use of the temperature
change rate, rather than temperature, as the predicted variable is based upon the expectation that these natural modes of climate variability represent forcing mechanisms — I believe through
changes in cloud cover — which then
cause a lagged temperature response.This is what Anthony and I are showing here:
«The overall slow decrease of upwelling SW flux from the mid-1980's until the end of the 1990's and subsequent increase from 2000 onwards appear to
caused, primarily, by
changes in global
cloud cover (although there is a small increase of
cloud optical thickness after 2000) and is confirmed by the ERBS measurements... The overall slight rise (relative heating) of global total net flux at TOA between the 1980's and 1990's is confirmed
in the tropics by the ERBS measurements and exceeds the estimated climate forcing
changes (greenhouse gases and aerosols) for this period.
Spencer has postulated elsewhere that natural factors, such as PDO swings, might be the underlying
cause for
changes in cloud cover, which result
in changes in global temperature, IOW that
clouds act as part of a natural forcing, rather than simply a feedback to anthropogenic (or other) forcing.
Moreover, a more careful look at the
changes of ISCCP
clouds by
cloud type shows that the increase
in total
cloud cover from 2000 to 2004 is due to a small increases
in high - level
clouds and a larger increase
in middle - level
clouds that are mostly thermally neutral and therefore could not
cause warming (see figures, data).
Moreover, the uncertainty as such doesn't negate that climate
change over the last many decades is 100 % anthropogenic
in nature — unless you can point to some non-anthropogenic factor that
causes cloud cover to
change in a way that would
cause warming.
This is not perfect because it is likely that climate effects such as ocean currents and oscillations,
changes in biology, ice extent and volume
changes,
cloud cover variations, etc... are
causing a kind of climactic Brownian Motion, hiding the signal
in what, lacking deep understanding of these issues, we can only call noise.
The potential for
changes in cloud cover as a result of the
changes in sea ice makes the evaluation of the actual forcing that may be realized quite uncertain, since such
changes could overwhelm the forcing
caused by the sea - ice loss itself, if the cloudi - ness increases
in the summertime.