(Anything that changes when a forcing changes and also
causes a change in the surface temperature.)
my concern is that is no physical way to link a change it tropopausal RF to
causing a change in surface temperature.
Not exact matches
One of the subtle
changes visible
in the new data - set is how the Amazon's greenness corresponds to one of the long - known
causes of rainfall or drought to the Amazon basin:
changes in sea
surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, called the El Nino Southern Oscillation.
This is a strong indication that agriculture, and not
changing sea
surface temperature,
caused the regional
changes in climate during the last third of the 20th century, the researchers say.
The problem is that unless the core is properly contained, the
change in pressure and
temperature at the
surface can
cause it to explode, says Edwards.
The effects of wind
changes, which were found to potentially increase
temperatures in the Southern Ocean between 660 feet and 2,300 feet below the
surface by 2 °C, or nearly 3.6 °F, are over and above the ocean warming that's being
caused by the heat - trapping effects of greenhouse gases.
Hence, relatively small exchanges of heat between the atmosphere and ocean can
cause significant
changes in surface temperature.
To contribute to an understanding of the underlying
causes of these
changes we compile various environmental records (and model - based interpretations of some of them)
in order to calculate the direct effect of various processes on Earth's radiative budget and, thus, on global annual mean
surface temperature over the last 800,000 years.
During El Nino events the ocean circulation
changes in such a way as to
cause a large and temporary positive sea
surface temperature anomaly
in the tropical Pacific.
The new study used calculations and models to show that the cooling from this
change caused surface temperatures to increase about 25 percent more slowly than they would have otherwise, due only to the increases
in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
Threats to the auklet include introduced carnivores (particularly
in Alaska), oil spills, and
changes in sea
surface temperature (
caused by El Niño events).
Your earlier # 182 was equally disconcerting where you quoted Norris and Slingo (2009) saying «At present, it is not known whether
changes in cloudiness will exacerbate, mitigate, or have little effect on the increasing global
surface temperature caused by anthropogenic greenhouse radiative forcing.»
But I just read
in the press release: «Hence, variations
in cloud cover
caused by cosmic rays can
change the
surface temperature.
Consequently, as they say slightly earlier
in the abstract: «At present, it is not known whether
changes in cloudiness will exacerbate, mitigate, or have little effect on the increasing global
surface temperature caused by anthropogenic greenhouse radiative forcing.»
Global average
surface temperatures are not expected to
change significantly although
temperatures at higher latitudes may be expected to decrease to a modest extent because of a reduction
in the efficiency of meridional heat transport (offsetting the additional warming anticipated for this environment
caused by the build - up of greenhouse gases).
Indeed, there is a clear physical reason why this is the case — the increase
in water vapour as
surface air
temperature rises
causes a
change in the moist - adiabatic lapse rate (the decrease of
temperature with height) such that the
surface to mid-tropospheric gradient decreases with increasing
temperature (i.e. it warms faster aloft).
Within the troposphere and between that and the
surface, convection (and at the
surface, conduction and molecular mass diffusion) are also important — these also respond to
changes in temperature so that an imbalance
causes a
temperature change that
causes the imbalance to decay.
Temperature tends to respond so that, depending on optical properties, LW emission will tend to reduce the vertical differential heating by cooling warmer parts more than cooler parts (for the surface and atmosphere); also (not significant within the atmosphere and ocean in general, but significant at the interface betwen the surface and the air, and also significant (in part due to the small heat fluxes involved, viscosity in the crust and somewhat in the mantle (where there are thick boundary layers with superadiabatic lapse rates) and thermal conductivity of the core) in parts of the Earth's interior) temperature changes will cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differenti
Temperature tends to respond so that, depending on optical properties, LW emission will tend to reduce the vertical differential heating by cooling warmer parts more than cooler parts (for the
surface and atmosphere); also (not significant within the atmosphere and ocean
in general, but significant at the interface betwen the
surface and the air, and also significant (
in part due to the small heat fluxes involved, viscosity
in the crust and somewhat
in the mantle (where there are thick boundary layers with superadiabatic lapse rates) and thermal conductivity of the core)
in parts of the Earth's interior)
temperature changes will cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differenti
temperature changes will
cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differential heating.
If the
surface temperature is slow to catch up to that imbalance then the energy imbalance remains large, and we can have sufficient net heating to
cause much faster
changes in the ice sheets than from the comparatively smaller imbalances
caused by the
changes in Earth's orbit associated with the glacial periods
in the past.
There will be Regionally / locally and temporal variations; increased
temperature and backradiation tend to reduce the diurnal
temperature cycle on land, though regional variations
in cloud feedbacks and water vapor could
cause some regions to have the opposite effect;
changes in surface moisture and humidity also
changes the amount of convective cooling that can occur for the same
temperature distribution.
Here we would like to try to distinguish between warming
in the nocturnal boundary layer due to a redistribution of heat and warming due to the accumulation of heat... It is likely that the observed warming
in minimum
temperature, whether
caused by additional greenhouse forcing or land use
changes or other land
surface dynamics, is reflecting a redistribution of heat by turbulence - not an accumulation of heat.
But the
change in surface temperature would also
cause a
change in radiative forcing.
In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report stated a clear expert consensus that: «It is extremely likely [defined as 95 - 100 % certainty] that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic [human - caused] increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.&raqu
In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change Fifth Assessment Report stated a clear expert consensus that: «It is extremely likely [defined as 95 - 100 % certainty] that more than half of the observed increase
in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic [human - caused] increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.&raqu
in global average
surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was
caused by the anthropogenic [human -
caused] increase
in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.&raqu
in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.»
His estimate for the
surface temperature rise due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 for the zero feedback case is 0.5 C which is further reduced to 0.3 C due to negative feedback
caused by the increase
in planetary clouds which is
in agreement with Idso's experimental analysis to determine the planet's response to a
change in forcing.
The
change in the amount of total solar irradiance (TSI) reaching the Earth's
surface is directly proportional to the
temperature change it
causes.
What's lost
in a lot of the discussion about human -
caused climate
change is not that the sum of human activities is leading to some warming of the earth's
temperature, but that the observed rate of warming (both at the earth's
surface and throughout the lower atmosphere) is considerably less than has been anticipated by the collection of climate models upon whose projections climate alarm (i.e., justification for strict restrictions on the use of fossil fuels) is built.
They describe abnormally warm or cool sea
surface temperatures in the South Pacific that are
caused by
changing ocean currents.
The long - term trend of TSI is most probably
caused by a global
temperature change of the Sun that does not influence the UV irradiance
in the same way as the
surface magnetic fields.
A variation that could
cause a whopping 0.1 C + / - 0.1 C
change in surface temperature.
It is defined as the
change in global mean
surface temperature at equilibrium that is
caused by a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration.
This is a strong indication that agriculture, and not
changing sea
surface temperature,
caused the regional
changes in climate during the last third of the 20th century, the researchers say.
The CO2 forcing can be viewed as directly suppressing the precipitation
in this experiment,
causing precipitation to decrease even without
surface temperature change.
Specifically, Trenberth must find mechanisms
in the oceans that are characteristic of the oceans but not
caused by
changes in temperature or radiation at the ocean's
surface.
Changes in instrumentation and data availability have
caused time - varying biases
in estimates of global - and regional - average sea -
surface temperature.
How hurricanes develop also depends on how the local atmosphere responds to
changes in local sea
surface temperatures, and this atmospheric response depends critically on the
cause of the
change.23, 24 For example, the atmosphere responds differently when local sea
surface temperatures increase due to a local decrease of particulate pollution that allows more sunlight through to warm the ocean, versus when sea
surface temperatures increase more uniformly around the world due to increased amounts of human -
caused heat - trapping gases.25, 26,27,28
We use a one - dimensional radiative - convective model for the atmospheric thermal structure to compute the
change in the
surface temperature of the earth for large assumed increases
in the trace gas concentrations; doubling the N2O, CH4, and NH3 concentrations is found to
cause additive increases
in the
surface temperature of 0.7 °, 0.3 °, and 0.1 ° K, respectively.
Change in El Nino intensity (As El Nino intensity is
in part based on sea
surface temperatures, rising
temperatures will
cause more intense El Ninos
causing flooding, droughts, wild fires and famines.
The slowed
surface warming is due
in large part to
changes in ocean cycles, particularly
in the Pacific Ocean,
causing more efficient ocean heat uptake, thus leaving less heat to warm
surface temperatures.
Longer Title: Do Multidecadal
Changes In The Strength And Frequency Of El Niño and La Niña Events
Cause Global Sea
Surface Temperature Anomalies To Rise And Fall Over Multidecadal Periods?
Since Global SST anomalies respond to
changes in NINO3.4 SST anomalies, this relationship implies that the strengths and frequencies of El Niño and La Niña events over multidecadal periods
cause the multidecadal rises and falls
in global sea
surface temperatures.
In a study last year, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program indicated that an increase in sea - surface temperatures would lead to a proliferation of ocean bacteria species like Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio parahaemolyticus that cause seafood - borne disease
In a study last year, the U.S. Climate
Change Science Program indicated that an increase
in sea - surface temperatures would lead to a proliferation of ocean bacteria species like Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio parahaemolyticus that cause seafood - borne disease
in sea -
surface temperatures would lead to a proliferation of ocean bacteria species like Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio parahaemolyticus that
cause seafood - borne diseases.
The NAO's prominent upward trend from the 1950s to the 1990s
caused large regional
changes in air
temperature, precipitation, wind and storminess, with accompanying impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and contributed to the accelerated rise
in global mean
surface temperature (e.g., Hurrell 1996; Ottersen et al. 2001; Thompson et al. 2000; Visbeck et al. 2003; Stenseth et al. 2003).
If a black body with a fixed - rate energy source is
in radiation - rate - equilibrium with the vacuum of space at 0 Kelvins, placing additional material separate from but surrounding the black body will likely
cause the
temperature of the
surface of the black body to
change in such a way that energy - rate - equilibrium is re-established for the black body.
Climate sensitivity is the
change in surface air
temperature caused by a
change in radiative forcing.
Changes in ocean
surface temperatures caused by El Niño significantly affect where cumulonimbus clouds form
in the ITCZ and, therefore, the geographic structure of the Hadley cell.
Also we well know how ENSO events
cause changing CO2 content
in atmosphere when tropical sea
surface temperature is
changing.
Concerning decadal
changing trends of CO2 content
in atmosphere I have expressed that they are
caused by
changing temperatures of sea
surface water on the seasurface areas where seasurface CO2 sinks are.
As for «raising the
surface pressure»
causing changes in temperature — well, if the
surface in question is the cylinder of a gas piston that is being compressed, I beg to differ, especially if it is done rapidly.
The pattern of
temperature change through the layers of the atmosphere, with warming near the
surface and cooling higher up
in the stratosphere, further confirms that it is the buildup of heat - trapping gases (also known as «greenhouse gases») that has
caused most of the Earth's warming over the past half century.
The Lewis and Curry paper said the best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity — the
change in global mean
surface temperature at equilibrium that is
caused by a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration — was 1.64 degrees.