Very few of them dispute that this has already
caused average global temperatures to rise roughly 1 degree.
The 1991 volcanic eruptions (Pinatubo, Hudson) injected 23 Megatonnes of SO2 into the stratosphere, leaving a sulfurous cloud that circled the globe for about 2 years before finally settling out (together with a large quantity of fine particulate matter which rapidly settled out) The sulfurous cloud
caused average global temperatures to drop by 0.55 deg.
Meanwhile, production of greenhouse gases — which linger in the atmosphere much longer than sulfate aerosols — has continued,
causing average global temperatures to rise.
Positive feedback means runaway warming «One of the oft - cited predictions of potential warming is that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from pre-industrial levels — from 280 to 560 parts per million — would alone
cause average global temperature to increase by about 1.2 °C.
Global Warming: an unhealthy amount of greenhouse gasses
causing the average global temperature to increase.
18 Unnatural Climate Changes Global Warming: an unhealthy amount of greenhouse gasses
causing the average global temperature to increase.
Therefore, the average flux of solar power striking on the surface, after attenuation by the atmosphere, is 342 W / m ^ 2, which
causes an average global temperature of ~ 20 K. No need to invent a nonexistent greenhouse effect.
AGW says that the average of energy received by the surface of the Earth, after attenuated by the atmosphere, is 161 W / m ^ 2, which
causes an average global temperature of — 42.3 °C.
Not exact matches
Most scientists and climatologists agree that weird weather is at least in part the result of
global warming — a steady increase in the
average temperature of the surface of the Earth thought to be
caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gasses produced by human activity.
Many governments believe that holding the
average global temperature rise
caused by man - made warming to 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels gives the world the best chance to avoid dangerous climate change.
Considering all these factors, Smith and Mizrahi suggest that targeting methane and soot will
cause global average temperatures to be only 0.16 °C lower by 2050 than they would have been otherwise, the researchers report today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
While 2014
temperatures continue the planet's long - term warming trend, scientists still expect to see year - to - year fluctuations in
average global temperature caused by phenomena such as El Niño or La Niña.
And a strong La Niña could also
cause the
global average temperature to fall off the record pace it's been on.
However, at the increased levels seen since the Industrial Revolution (roughly 275 ppm then, 400 ppm now; Figure 2 - 1), greenhouse gases are contributing to the rapid rise of our
global average temperatures by trapping more heat, often referred to as human -
caused climate change.
For example Pinatubo
caused the
global average temperature of the Earth to cool by about 0.5 degrees C for about 3 years.
«It is thus extremely likely (> 95 % probability) that the greenhouse gas induced warming since the mid-twentieth century was larger than the observed rise in
global average temperatures, and extremely likely that anthropogenic forcings were by far the dominant
cause of warming.
However,
global warming is
caused by natural events and human that is believed to contribute to increases in
average temperature.
Global warming can be referred to as climate change that
causes an increase in the
average temperature.
It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in
global average surface
temperature from 1951 to 2010 was
caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.
But because of the necessary caveats that must be applied due to the state of the science I am starting to feel unable to say much about climate change apart from: «The increase in CO2 will very probably
cause an overall increase in
Global Average Temperature.
AR5: It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in
global average surface
temperature from 1951 to 2010 was
caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.
Narrowly scoped, the present situation is either strictly
caused by solar variations (in which case I believe the «solar variation» crowd will inappropriately gain credibility over the next 10 to 20 years as we work through the next below
average solar cycle or two), or strictly
caused by CO2 concentrations (in which case I believe the «CO2 concentrations» crowd will inappropriately lose credibility as the non-linear relationship (sensitivity is based on doublings, not linear increases) between increased CO2 concentrations, and forecasts for below
average solar cycles reduces the longer term upward trend in
global temperatures).
Item 8 could be confusing in having so many messages: «It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in
global average surface
temperature from 1951 to 2010 was
caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas... The best estimate of the human - induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period....
The most recent report concluded both, that
global temperatures are rising, that this is
caused largely by human activities and, in addition, that for increases in
global average temperature, there are projected to be major changes in ecosystem structure and function with predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystems, e.g. water and food supply.
Global average surface
temperatures are not expected to change significantly although
temperatures at higher latitudes may be expected to decrease to a modest extent because of a reduction in the efficiency of meridional heat transport (offsetting the additional warming anticipated for this environment
caused by the build - up of greenhouse gases).
I think I know where I've been going wrong: it'll still be colder at the poles (or at high altitude) whatever the
average global temperature: the ice is a symptom of that, not a
cause.
For example, episodic deviations in cloud and snow cover, dust and smoke, etc, will have some radiative effect that could
cause some
global average temperature change.
The increase in these winds has
caused eastern tropical Pacific cooling, amplified the Californian drought, accelerated sea level rise three times faster than the
global average in the Western Pacific and has slowed the rise of
global average surface
temperatures since 2001.
Starting from an old equilbrium, a change in radiative forcing results in a radiative imbalance, which results in energy accumulation or depletion, which
causes a
temperature response that approahes equilibrium when the remaining imbalance approaches zero — thus the equilibrium climatic response, in the
global - time
average (for a time period long enough to characterize the climatic state, including externally imposed cycles (day, year) and internal variability),
causes an opposite change in radiative fluxes (via Planck function)(plus convective fluxes, etc, where they occur) equal in magnitude to the sum of the (externally) imposed forcing plus any «forcings»
caused by non-Planck feedbacks (in particular, climate - dependent changes in optical properties, + etc.).)
It is extremely likely * that human activities have
caused more than half of the observed increase in
global average surface
temperature since the 1950s.
Redistribution of heat (such as vertical transport between the surface and the deeper ocean) could
cause some surface and atmospheric
temperature change that
causes some
global average warming or cooling.
It is entirely plausible that high enough
global average temperatures may suppress more extreme events than are
caused.
Today scientists have very high confidence about human -
caused global average surface
temperature increase — a key climate indicator.
«Future projections based on theory and high - resolution dynamical models consistently suggest that greenhouse warming will
cause the globally
averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms,» Knutson et al. (2010); Grinsted et al. (2013) projected «a twofold to sevenfold increase in the frequency of Katrina magnitude events for a 1 °C rise in
global temperature.»
Caused by the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, agricultural practices, and other human impacts, climate change has currently raised
global temperatures 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.44 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the Industrial Revolution
average.
In the entirely subjective opinion of a particular group of IPCC authors, it's «extremely likely» (95 % certain) that «more than half of the observed increase in
global average surface
temperature from 1951 to 2010» was
caused by human - generated greenhouse gas emissions (see the bottom of p. 13 here).
In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report stated a clear expert consensus that: «It is extremely likely [defined as 95 - 100 % certainty] that more than half of the observed increase in
global average surface
temperature from 1951 to 2010 was
caused by the anthropogenic [human -
caused] increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.»
Two major volcanoes — El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991 —
caused global average temperature to dip as a result of volcanic ash, soot and debris reflecting sunlight back into space.
What I mean is simply that we have as much actual empirical evidence for the existence of even one unicorn in this world as we have for the basic AGW claim that more CO2 in the atmosphere can, will and does
cause a net rise in Earth's
average global surface
temperature, i.e. NONE whatsoever!
Global average temperature didn't
cause the ice age.
Proof that CO2 has no effect on climate and identification of the two factors that do
cause reported climate change (sunspot number is the only independent variable) are at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com (now with 5 - year running -
average smoothing of measured
average global temperature (AGT), the near - perfect explanation of AGT since before 1900; R ^ 2 = 0.97 +).
And I will disagree with you on which would be more catastrophic, a Younger Dryas type drop in
global average temperature of 3 - 5 degrees, or an increase due to anthropogenic
causes of 3 - 5 degrees.
It seemsthe observed increase in trade winds lead to the surfacing of cooler waters in the Eastern Pacific ocean and this phenomenon is found by models to
cause global average temperatures to cool.
«Few scientists now dispute that today's soaring levels of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere will
cause global temperature averages to rise by as much as nine degrees Fahrenheit sometime after the year 2000.»
This backs up the IPCC attribution statement «It is extremely likely [95 percent confidence] more than half of the observed increase in
global average surface
temperature from 1951 to 2010 was
caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.»
There is little doubt that a
global average rise in
temperatures of 4 degrees Celsius would render a majority of our planet's 100 - largest urban areas non-viable due to water supply shortages and
cause immense refugee flows.
Over geologic time, increases in carbon dioxide almost always
caused increases in the
average global temperatures.
Again IPCC attribution statement: «It is extremely likely [95 percent confidence] more than half of the observed increase in
global average surface
temperature from 1951 to 2010 was
caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.»
Changes in instrumentation and data availability have
caused time - varying biases in estimates of
global - and regional -
average sea - surface
temperature.
Now, the only way that a business recession could
cause a temporary rise in
average global temperatures is for the reduced industrial activity to result in a reduction in the amount of SO2 aerosol emissions into the troposphere.