A human -
caused warming signal is embedded in the rich, year - to - year and decade - to - decade noise of natural internal climate variability.
The hockey stick provides compelling evidence for the emergence of a human -
caused warming signal from the background noise of natural fluctuations in climate.
Not exact matches
Other research
signals that the albedo effect «
causes so much
warming that permafrost thaws even despite the cooling from shrubs,» he said.
The goal is to capture natural variations in the climate, like changes in ocean circulation or features like the El Niño Southern Oscillation, that are swamped by the
signal of human -
caused warming when looking out to the end of the century.
Unfortunately, it is also dealing with potential design flaws that
cause the tablet to become very
warm and experience weak Wi - Fi
signals.
NOAA research shows that the tropical multi-decadal
signal is
causing the increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995, and is not related to greenhouse
warming.»
Fundamentally, a number of physically plausible hypotheses about what else might be
causing the 1950 - present
warming signal are being evaluated.
By the way, low clouds in darkness increase surface temperature, sort of like the inverse property of commonly understood Cosmic ray effect, not
causing a cooling because there are more CR's, but rather a
warming, which only low clouds in total darkness can do, so the probable CR temperature
signal gets cancelled from one latitude dark vs bright region to the next.
Adjusting for El Nino might be difficult in that global
warming may
cause change in frequency of El Nino hence such adjustment might remove some of the
signal as well as some of the noise.
Some climate denialists continue to try and argue that rather than with a steady man - made
warming signal, the data are better fit with abrupt step changes
caused by El Niño events, followed by flat periods.
Against such a noisy background, it is hard to detect the
signal from any changes
caused by humanity's increased economic activity, and consequent release of atmosphere -
warming greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.
Dr Nisbet's hypothesis about the tropical wetlands is the most alarming, for it could
signal an Arctic - like feedback loop there, whereby global
warming could be
causing them to release more methane by making them hotter and wetter.
In fact this «pause»
signal may be best interpreted as
warming because normally when the PDO is negative it
causes «global cooling» in the atmosphere.
He goes on to conclude that the small fractional change in station wind - speed values relative to reanalysis values are unlikely to have
caused a global bias in trends of Tmin in calm conditions approaching -0.1-C over the 50 - year period, equivalent to -0.02-C / decade, 1 / 10 - th of the observed
warming signal.
So we have no correlation between solar activity and strong
warming in 2007 morphing to the new view that solar changes are
causing cooling and masking the AGW
signal.
But now we see that it's the urban areas that are
cause the ambient
warming signal, if any.
Warming and cooling
signals in weather noise is not so easy to determine as to the
cause.
The purpose IS as you said: to «extract the most reliable global
warming signal», which is POSTULATED, not theorized, to exist, certify that it is
caused by ACO2, and provide a laundry list of undesirable to catastrophic consequences which ARE befalling us (present tense) and which will continue and escalate unless political action is taken to drastically curb our use of fossil fuels.
In other words natural variability dominates the observed record making it impossible to detect any human -
caused global
warming signal even if one were to exist (which there is no proof of).
Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) have published a paper in Environmental Research Letters seeking to extract the human -
caused global
warming signal from the global surface temperature and lower troposphere temperature data.
So if CO2 increases
cause the 20th century global
warming then clearly changes in the CO2 concentration should dominate the global temperature
signal over that period (CO2 lagged, but not much one suspects, and potentially non-linear)?
You are now talking about showing the «global
warming signal is clear» not addressing the evidence for CO2 being the dominant
cause of it (which is what we were both talking about to begin with).
For example a paper on measuring the global
warming signal in the instrumental temperature record may say nothing about the
cause.
If you look at the information closely, there is NO hard causal link between CO2 and global heating, AND there certainly is NO human CO2
signal that can even be detected as a
cause for
warming.
Barnett et al. (2005) investigated the
cause of this
warming signal, and concluded as follows.
As Curry observes, an infinite number of statements could have been made, ranging from «it is extremely likely that the anthro pogenic increase in greenhouse gases has
caused some
warming» (not very informative, since an infinitesimally small
warming is of no policy relevance) to «it is about as likely as not that greenhouse - gas - induced
warming exceeds the total observed
warming» (which indicates the size of the greenhouse
signal, but understates our confidence in attribution).
I'll stick with AC exhausts near thermometers
causing a spurious
warming signal, Marco (I can test that one all by myself).
If these are near the measuring device, they will
cause a spurious
warming signal; this does not take «rocket science» to figure out.
Watts» claim that AC exhausts, heated buildings and asphalt parking lots, etc.
cause a spurious
warming signal has NOT been refuted at all by Menne, contrary to what you claim.