Graph 8 shows the net result of the linkage: a 1 per cent increase in the real cash rate, lasting for two years, would raise the exchange rate by around 3 per cent and would trim 0.3 per
cent off inflation, with a lag which reaches its peak effect in ten quarters.
Not exact matches
Since 1993, when the 2 — 3 per
cent objective was first articulated, average CPI
inflation (excluding the one -
off GST effect) has been 2.5 per
cent.
If it raises rates too quickly, the bank risks choking
off economic growth, falling short of its ideal
inflation target of two per
cent and could lead to the type of financial stability risk it's trying to avoid, he said.
An exception is China, where the
inflation rate has climbed to 3.2 per
cent — the fastest increase in prices since early 1997 — although this partly reflects one -
off factors that saw food prices soar.
This will hit the poorest by far the hardest: three per
cent inflation would see the poorest lose 3.3 % of their disposable income, compared with 1.6 % for the best -
off.