We want to be on — and stay on — the short - term Phillips curve associated with 2 — 3 per
cent price expectations.
Not exact matches
Given the fragile nature of
price expectations and the importance of getting actual inflation back towards 2 1/2 per
cent relatively quickly to reinforce the stability of
price expectations, the response of policy, even with the benefit of hindsight, seems about right (Graph 3).
Home resales were already on a downward track before the British Columbia government introduced a 15 per
cent tax on home purchases by foreign nationals in Metro Vancouver, and area resales could see further significant weakness in the near term if there is a sharp downgrading of future
price expectations and a drop in speculative activity.
The critical issue here is that even though inflation rose and fell over the course of the cycle,
price expectations did not move — even when inflation was running at 5 per
cent, the community at large expected it would soon be back to its normal lower pace.
With the economy expected to resume above - potential growth in the near term, our
expectation is that inflation will converge on 2 per
cent as the output gap closes and the temporary effects of low oil
prices and past exchange rate depreciation dissipate.
In contrast, medium - term inflation
expectations implied by financial market
prices, which are calculated as the difference between nominal and indexed bond yields, have been broadly stable at around 2.6 per
cent over the past nine months.
The materials sector has risen by 16 per
cent, boosted by continuing strength in base metals
prices and
expectations of substantial increases in contract
prices for coal and iron ore.
Price expectations, which are now seen as occupying a central role in the inflationary process, have been cracked; given this, together with continued policy vigilance, there is no reason why the current underlying inflation rate of 2 to 3 per
cent can not be sustained.
The median
expectation of consumer
price inflation over the year ahead now stands at 3.5 per
cent, compared with levels of well over 4 per
cent in the previous couple of years.
It found that
price expectation shocks accounted for 30 per
cent of the increase in home values between 1996 and 2006, larger than all other factors driving
price gains, such as housing supply, housing demand or mortgage rates.
The subsidy is only for financial year 2016, so in 2017 the
price will be between $ 4.75 and $ 5, a big relief for rival milk producers such as Bega, which had its stock rally more than 3 per
cent on
expectations of a more rational milk market.
Yowie said the launch of its lower -
price brand, called Discovery World, had failed to live up to
expectations, while the total chocolate market in North America declined by 1.5 per
cent during the December quarter.
One - third of farmers have a negative outlook for commodity
prices, while 28 per
cent have positive
expectations.
Fuelling the meteoric share
price rise (up some 80 per
cent since the start of the year) are big earnings
expectations, though it's worth noting the share
price run is easily outpacing the expected earnings growth.
The results of the study, co-authored with Dr Lorenzo Neri from QMUL, show that a three percentage point increase (from a baseline of 26 per
cent) in the number of students who perform above
expectations at Key Stage 2 increases local house
prices by 1.5 per
cent.
Pioneered by self published authors, the 99
cent price may be reshaping customer
expectations.
TORONTO — TD Bank is estimating Canadian home
prices are about 10 per
cent overvalued given the
expectations for rising interest rates.