Sentences with phrase «century temperature observations»
However, detection and attribution analyses based on climate simulations that include these forcings, (e.g., Stott et al., 2006b), continue to detect a significant anthropogenic influence in 20th - century temperature observations even though the near - surface patterns of response to black carbon aerosols and sulphate aerosols could be so similar at large spatial scales (although opposite in sign) that detection analyses may be unable to distinguish between them (Jones et al., 2005).
https://www.ipcc.ch/ Not exact matches
«Using observations and model simulations, we've demonstrated that rising Pacific - Atlantic temperatures were the major driver of rapid Arctic warming in the early 20th century.»
Using updated and corrected temperature observations taken at thousands of weather observing stations over land and as many commercial ships and buoys at sea, the researchers show that temperatures in the 21st century did not plateau, as thought.
For the earlier generation of models, results are based on the archived output from control runs (specifically, the first 30 years, in the case of temperature, and the first 20 years for the other fields), and for the recent generation models, results are based on the 20th - century simulations with climatological periods selected to correspond with observations.
«A new study based on satellite observations finds that temperatures could rise nearly 5 °C by the end of the century.»
Or you could just quote the relevant sections of Arthur Holmes's standard textbook «Principles of Physical Geology» that spells out a century's worth of observations, a calculation of CO2 rise due to oil and coal combustion, a 12 degree F temperature rise, and the resulting impact on glaciers and sea level — all published in the 1960s.
* However, the same panel then concluded that «the warming trend in global - mean surface temperature observations during the past 20 years is undoubtedly real and is substantially greater than the average rate of warming during the twentieth century.
Improved constraints on 21st - century warming derived using 160 years of temperature observations.
Figure 2 displays annual maximum temperature projections until the end of the century (2100) based on observations from 1950 to 2005, employing two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5, left and RCP 8.5, right)[13].
While land surface observations go back hundreds of years in a few places, data of sufficient coverage for estimating global temperature have been available only since the end of the 19th century.
Most proxy - only reconstructions show the mid-20th century (not late) to be the warmest period — which we know, according to surface temperature observations, is incorrect.
Even putting aside the OHC data and fingerprinting, there is absolutely no evidence in model simulations (or in prevailing reconstructions of the Holocene), that an unforced climate would exhibit half - century timescale global temperature swings of order ~ 1 C. I don't see a good theoretical reason why this should be the case, but since Judith lives on «planet observations» it should be a pause for thought.
Or you could just quote the relevant sections of Arthur Holmes's standard textbook «Principles of Physical Geology» that spells out a century's worth of observations, a calculation of CO2 rise due to oil and coal combustion, a 12 degree F temperature rise, and the resulting impact on glaciers and sea level — all published in the 1960s.
that climate models can not account for the observations we already have let alone make adequate predictions about what will happen in the future.that century - scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.»
The hottest topic in climate research is the observation that global average surface temperature, as well as satellite observations of temperatures in the atmosphere, has shown little or no warming during the 21st century.
Because the new precise observations agree with existing assessments of water vapor's impact, researchers are more confident than ever in model predictions that Earth's leading greenhouse gas will contribute to a temperature rise of a few degrees by the end of the century.
Among the observations reported are reports of warming in the early part of the century and direct measurements of Arctic water temperature by Spielhagen in 2010 who reported temperatures that never had been reached in the previous two thousand years.
«More than a century's worth of detailed climate observations shows a sharp increase in both carbon dioxide and temperature.
Based on the same observation one could argue that the hockeystick methodology is correct to pick out the bristlecones because it is the only proxy that shows a climate signal consistent with a 20th century rise in temperature as measured by meteorological stations.
# 1: Historical surface temperature observations over since the middle of the 20th century show a clear signal of increasing surface temperatures.
In addition to the increasing trend of recent CO2 content in atmosphere, according to my interpretations, empiric observations prove that the trends of CO2 content in atmosphere have followed temperature during the last century, during the glacial and interglacial eras, and during the last 100 million years.
The proposition to be proved (# 7) is assumed in premise # 3 by virtue of kludging of the model parameters and the aerosol forcing to agree with the 20th century observations of surface temperature.
Confidence in premises 1 - 6 is enhanced by the agreement between the simulations and observations of the 20th century surface temperature and the distinct signals produced by the various forcing mechanisms.
A change in the type of thermometer shelter used at many Australian observation sites in the early 20th century resulted a sudden drop in day time temperature an increase in minimum temperatures which is entirely spurious.
This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations» — Stenni et al., 2017 http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/cp-2017-40/cp-2017-40.pdf «No continent - scale warming of Antarctic temperature is evident in the last century.
As Mosher points out, we don't need no stinkin» Modulz to understand that CO2 is overwhelmingly the dominant driver of temperature trends since the mid-20th Century... for that we've got observations.
Working with a total of 2,196 globally - distributed databases containing observations of NPP, as well as the five environmental variables thought to most impact NPP trends (precipitation, air temperature, leaf area index, fraction of photosynthetically active radiation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration), Li et al. analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of global NPP over the past half century (1961 — 2010).
The other fun observation is temperatures track with cloud cover better than CO2 for the last 30 years (less clouds — higher temperature) with cloud cover being basically flat in the 21st century.
The lighter shaded areas depict the change in this uncertainty range, if carbon cycle feedbacks are assumed to be lower or higher than in the medium setting... Global mean temperature results from the SCM for anthropogenic and natural forcing compare favourably with 20th - century observations (black line) as shown in the lower left panel (Folland et al., 2001; Jones et al., 2001; Jones and Moberg, 2003).
In the opinion of the panel, the warming trend in global - mean surface temperature observations during the past 20 years is undoubtedly real and is substantially greater than the average rate of warming during the twentieth century.
In the most realistic case of half - field capacity, the July daily minimum temperature in the California Central Valley increased by 3.5 °C, in agreement with station observation trends over the past century in the same area.
Summer (June — August) mean temperature in the region has increased by 0.82 °C since reliable observations were established in the 1950s, with the five hottest summers all occurring in the twenty - first century.
I like borehole data as they seem to reflect real world observations and instrumental records which demonstrate that temperatures have been rising for some 300 years, not just the last century.
The Sedlacek and Knutti paper is only about oceanic temperatures, not the land record, it shows that the models do a poor job matching observed oceanic changes over the 20th century when relying only on natural forcing, and that if the natural - only runs are scaled to have an overall trend that matches the observations, the models predict a more heterogeneous distribution of trends than was observed.
A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions We examine tropospheric temperature trends of 67 runs from 22 «Climate of the 20th Century» model simulations and try to reconcile them with the best available updated observations (in the tropics during the satellite era).
Global Warming Theory «Completely Disconnected From the Observations» Extensive analysis of temperature trends in the Arctic reveals that there has been no detectable long - term change since the beginning of the 20th century, and thus predictions of a sea ice - free Arctic in the coming decades due to dramatically rising temperatures are not rooted in observation.
[v] Gillett N.P., V. K. Arora, G. M. Flato, J. F. Scinocca, K. von Salzen, 2012: Improved constraints on 21st - century warming derived using 160 years of temperature observations.
«The remarkable turn of the climate of Europe towards greater warmth from soon after the beginning of the eighteenth century and affecting all seasons of the year in the 1730 ′ s seems to have produced little comment at the time, though by then the temperatures were being observed with thermometers and entered into regularly maintained observation books in a number of places.»
To expand the coverage of global gridded reanalyses, the 20th Century Reanalysis Project is an effort led by PSD and the CIRES at the University of Colorado to produce a reanalysis dataset spanning the entire twentieth century, assimilating only surface observations of synoptic pressure, monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice distriCentury Reanalysis Project is an effort led by PSD and the CIRES at the University of Colorado to produce a reanalysis dataset spanning the entire twentieth century, assimilating only surface observations of synoptic pressure, monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice districentury, assimilating only surface observations of synoptic pressure, monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice distribution.
The point they make may be summarized by the following quote: «While in the observations such breaks in temperature trend are clearly superimposed upon a century time - scale warming presumably due to anthropogenic forcing, those breaks result in significant departures from that warming over time periods spanning multiple decades.»
The also used observation data: ``... inferred them from observations of barometric pressure, sea surface temperature, and sea - ice concentration using a physically based data assimilation system called the 20th Century Reanalysis.»
«The assessment is supported additionally by a complementary analysis in which the parameters of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) were constrained using observations of near - surface temperature and ocean heat content, as well as prior information on the magnitudes of forcings, and which concluded that GHGs have caused 0.6 °C to 1.1 °C (5 to 95 % uncertainty) warming since the mid-20th century (Huber and Knutti, 2011); an analysis by Wigley and Santer (2013), who used an energy balance model and RF and climate sensitivity estimates from AR4, and they concluded that there was about a 93 % chance that GHGs caused a warming greater than observed over the 1950 — 2005 period; and earlier detection and attribution studies assessed in the AR4 (Hegerl et al., 2007b).»
The tree - ring reconstruction method used for the «hockey stick» could be checked against actual physical temperature observations over the late 20th century.
If our technique is confounded by this signal, there should be a substantial trend in the inferred global mean temperature over the 20th century in both the models and observations, matching the trend in this signal.
Which leads to another observation about natural global warming and climate change: past empirical evidence from earlier in the 20th century confirms that Earth's natural climate oscillations can produce periods of significant temperature change increases that even exceed the most recent temperature climate change.
However, we lack one century's worth of temperature observations WITHIN THE OCEAN.
As Media Matters has noted, the IPCC's 2007 «Synthesis Report» concluded that» [w] arming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level» and that» [m] ost of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [defined in the report as a» > 90 %» probability] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic [human - caused] GHG [greenhouse gas] concentrations.»
The agreement between 20th century global surface temperature observations and simulations with natural plus anthropogenic forcing provides the primary evidence to support this conclusion.
For late - 20th century warming to be attributed to natural variability, you'd need (a) a previously unknown mode (b) that shared all or most of the observed structure of recent temperature changes (c) with perhaps observation error accounting for the rest of it.
This study reconstructs a century - long SAMOC index, from 1870 to present, using sea surface temperature (SST) from 1993 to present, the period for which Expendable Bathythermographs (XBT) and satellite altimetry observations of SAMOC are available.