Sentences with phrase «century time scales»

The quality of agreement between model simulations with 20th century forcing and observations supports the likelihood that models are adequately simulating the magnitude of natural internal variability on decadal to century time scales.

Fraedrich & Blender did find long - range persistence on century time scales, but only for fluctuations (not for temperature), and only in the output of computer model runs.

The fact that «more rapid sea level rise on century time scales can not be excluded» means little more than «we don't know».

You can do as Lovejoy (2014, Clim Dyn) did, which is to derive a natural variability of global surface temperature from solar and volcanic forcing which is 0.2 C for decades to century time scales.

I co-edited and contributed to the 2003 American Geophysical Union Monograph: The North Atlantic Oscillation: significance and environmental impact and was one of the authors of the 1995 National Academies report on Climate Variability on Decade - to - Century Time Scales.

«we are fooling ourselves to think that CO2 control knob really influences climate on these decadal or even century time scales,»

Robert R. Dickson, «The local, regional, and global significance of exchanges through the Denmark Strait and Irminger Sea,» in Natural Climate Variability of Decade - to - Century Time Scales (National Academy Press 1995), pp. 305 - 317.

The relationships between the NAO and deep water production are discussed by R. Dickson, «Observations of DecCen climate variability in convection and water mass formation in the northern hemisphere,» in the CLIVAR Villefranche workshop summary at http://www.dkrz.de/clivar/villesum.html. More generally, see the Climate Research Committee, National Research Council, Natural Climate Variability on Decade - to - Century Time Scales (National Academy Press 1995).

They wrote that their comparisons of sea - level pressures, sea - surface temperatures and land - based air temperatures provided «consistent evidence for strong» regulation of temperatures by changes in ocean cycles «from monthly to century time scales.»

natural internal variability can be pretty large on decadal to century time scales, and minimization of this variability by the hockey team has been very damaging to the science and the identification and intepretation of natural variability.

And the gut feeling by IPCC is everything from a walk in the park to catastrophe: «The equilibrium climate sensitivity quantifies the response of the climate system to constant radiative forcing on multi - century time scales.

The IPCC treats natural internal variability as «noise»; we argue that it is the fundamental climate signal on decadal to century time scales, with external forcing projecting onto these modes.

Paleontological records indicate that global mean sea level is highly sensitive to temperature (7) and that ice sheets, the most important contributors to large - magnitude sea - level change, can respond to warming on century time scales (8), while models suggest ice sheets require millennia to approach equilibrium (9).

The previous message mentioned CENTURY TIME SCALES, not INTERANNUAL variability.

If you study the data in detail, and have the «skillz» to do so, it's obvious that for estimating sea level acceleration on century time scales quadratic fits just ain't right.

She goes so far as to say (in her post responding to Gavin's post, but responding to something else) «I do regard the emerging realization of the importance of natural variability to be an existential threat to the mainstream theory of climate variations on decadal to century time scales.»

Gavin, if you're still reading these (sometimes interminable and garbled) posts, could you affirm (or not) that the figures for methanes GWP from Schindell et alia http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/326/5953/716 of 35xCO2 for century time scales and 105xCO2 for decadal time scales is true?

They wrote that their comparisons of sea - level pressures, sea - surface temperatures and land - based air temperatures provided «consistent evidence for strong» regulation of temperatures by changes in ocean cycles «from monthly to century time scales.»

Yet we suggest that a pathway is still conceivable that could restore planetary energy balance on the century time scale.

But on the century time scale, 50 - 70 cm of sea level rise is not tiny.

The climate research community on the whole believes in the predictability of the large features of climate on the century time scale, though possibly not on the millenial time scale or longer.

I imagine Jim Cripwell looking at the rising curve I posted and saying to himself «no» he doesn't see anything even suggestive of CO2 effects happening over the century time scale.

above are fit to simulate climate change on a century time scale.

It remains to be demonstrated whether this bias extends to the traditional estimates for the rise in sea level on a century time scale.

The mitigation focus is on global climate and the century time scale, whereas the adaptation focus is regional and on timescales from the seasonal to decadal.

The point is that people and decision makers care more about climate on the time scale of a season and ~ 10 years than they do about the century time scale, which is reflected by many of the articles in the media and the blogosphere.

One of the best long - term (on a century time scale) estimates of Arctic sea ice is the Walsh & Chapman data set (described in Walsh & Chapman 2001, Annals of Glaciology, 33, 444 - 448).

Deforestation carbon is more uncertain and potentially can be offset on the century time scale by storage in the biosphere, including the soil, via reforestation and improved agricultural and forestry practices.

The development of the Galilee Basin would play a major part in widespread suffering over a century time scale and beyond.

Yet we suggest that a pathway is still conceivable that could restore planetary energy balance on the century time scale.

Fraedrich & Blender find persistence up to decades, Kiraly et al. find persistence lasting several years, so even if their analysis applied to temperature time series (which it doesn't) rather than fluctuations (which it does), those time scales aren't long enough to explain the trend on a century time scale in observed temperature time series.

background info doesn't indicate existential threat over century time scale.

Although we can not establish a clear connection between SAA dynamics and global warming, the strong correlation between the former and global sea level supports the idea that global warming may be at least partly controlled by deep Earth processes triggering geomagnetic phenomena, such as the South Atlantic Anomaly, on a century time scale.

Wigley states, «If one accounts for the ocean damping effect using either a PD or UD model, and, if one assumes that greenhouse gas forcing is dominant on the century time scale, then the climate sensitivity required to match model predictions is only about 0.4 deg C / wm -2.

Not exact matches

The end - times of the late twentieth century are on a global scale, and it is not only Christians who are at risk.

It is Lasch's contention that when one takes all this civic activity into account, and adds the wage work of lower - class women, one has to move the appearance of full - time homemaking on a broad scale from the late nineteenth century to the post-World War II period.

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«This is the first evidence ever offered for sea - level rise on a time scale ranging from decades to one century, and our colleagues expected ironclad evidence to back that claim.»

Predictions of weather and climate for months, seasons and decades ahead lie between normal weather forecasts and climate projections for the coming century — concerning both what influences the climate on these time - scales, and the methods required to make such predictions.

Modern cosmology depends so thoroughly on Einsteinian notions of curved space - time, the large - scale homogeneity of matter, and the equivalence of all reference frames that many scientists forget that these ideas were radical speculations less than a century ago.

«The climate transitions that we studied took place on millenial time scales, less than a thousand years, with some occurring over just decades to centuries,» Gibson says.

The Second Century collaboration will initially focus on science issues associated with Acadia National Park, with the intention of scaling nationally over time, Shaw said.

For significant periods of time, the reconstructed large - scale changes in the North Pacific SLP field described here and by construction the long - term decline in Hawaiian winter rainfall are broadly consistent with long - term changes in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) based on ENSO reconstructions documented in several other studies, particularly over the last two centuries.

«Ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation are essentially irreversible on centennial time scales,» found the Royal Society, a London - based group specializing in scientific research, in a 2011 paper, «[O] nce these changes have occurred, it will take centuries for the ocean to recover.

Decision - and policy - makers and stakeholders are increasingly asking for reliable predictions of extremes on time scales from days to seasons to centuries.

1) the atmosphere (which can also be subdivided into northern and southern hemispheres, and even into Hadley Cells) all with fairly short time constants 2) the upper ocean — time constant on the order of years to decades 2a) the biosphere — time scale from 1 year to decades and even centuries and millennia for some processes 3) abyssal ocean (timescale of many decades to ~ a century or more) 5) the geosphere — timescale of millennia to eons.

Paleoclimate data show that on century and millennial time scales the slow feedbacks are predominately amplifying feedbacks.

Terrestrial permafrost emissions of CH4 and CO2 likely can occur on a time scale of a few decades to several centuries if global warming continues [215].

Studies of modern, scaled - up programs that intend to impact long - term child development find, unlike the studies of small hothouse programs from the last century, that improvements in children's measurable skills and dispositions found at the end of participation in such programs usually fade away entirely by the time children are in the first few grades of elementary school.

In my last Century post, I highlighted another conclusion: My belief that the correct ranking, in terms of scale & timing, for inflation plays is: i) Property, then ii) Natural Resources, and then iii) Agri.