Late Twentieth
Century Warm Period would be LTCWP, for example.
As I discussed previously, the Arctic has warmed rapidly over the last century but this warming has occurred in two phases with an early
century warm period (1910 - 1950) and a late -
century warm period (1975 - present).
It may well be that the recent warm period was warmer than the early 20th
century warm period, as the raw data suggests... Or it may be that biases in the raw data are substantial, and the early 20th
century warm period was just as warm as the recent warm period, or maybe even warmer.
So, we don't know how they behaved during the early 20th
century warm period (1920s - 1940s).
Increases in GrIS melt and runoff during this past
century warm period must have been significant and were probably even larger than that of the most recent last decade (1995 - 2006).»
â $ œOscillating warm and cold periods could be related to the 20th
century warm period, the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Warm Period, the Dark Ages Cold Period, and the Roman Warm Period.â $ http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL026151.shtml
SAT observations and model simulations indicate that the nature of the arctic warming in the last two decades is distinct from the early twentieth -
century warm period.
a) Our models can not explain the early 20th
century warming period b) We know that the (statistically indistinguishable) late 20th century warming was caused principally by human - caused forcing.
Obviously, this type of decadal analysis reveals an abundance of similarities shared by the two 20th
century warming periods.
The above paper refers to the late 20th
century warming period when the stratosphere was cooling and ozone was falling.
A substantial concern for me when preparing my initial Model description was that for the sequence of events to be true the cooling of the stratosphere during the late 20th
century warming period had to be natural without needing to invoke human CO2 or CFCs.
All we know clearly is that CO2 doesn't appear to have been a significant factor in the early 20th
Century warming period, but does appear to be at least a significant factor in the warming between 1970 and around 2000.
Note that I research and illustrate the late 20th
Century warming period for a number of reasons.
Greenhouse gas forcing of the late
century warming period increased by 0.7 W / m2.
The late 20th
century warming period is therefor eclearly not «unprecendented» even within the last 100 years let alone 100 years as Michael Mann's (and Keith Briffa's) cherry picking of proxies and use of «novel statistical methods» like de-centred PCA would have us all believe.
Much is made of the late 20th
century warming period.
They have also been unable to explain earlier warming cycles, which are statistically indistinguishable from the late 20th
century warming period, but occurred before there could have been any significant CO2 impact.
Not exact matches
Marc Scott, a portfolio manager at American
Century Investments, says that the
warm weather in 2012 caused demand to fall by 12 % from the same
period the year before.
During the first third of the year, from January through April, the average temperature for the contiguous United States was 4 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th -
century average, making this
period the second
warmest on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Heavier rainfall at the study sites from the year 0 to 400, and again during Europe's Medieval
Warm Period, just before the Little Ice Age from about the year 800 to 1300, was probably caused by a
centuries - long strengthening of El Niño.
The surge in melt events corresponds to a summer temperature increase of at least 1.2 - 2 degrees Celsius (2.2 - 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) relative to the
warmest periods of the 18th and 19th
centuries, with nearly all of the increase occurring in the last 100 years.
Short - lived climate pollutants are so called because even though they
warm the planet more efficiently than carbon dioxide, they only remain in the atmosphere for a
period of weeks to roughly a decade whereas carbon dioxide molecules remain in the atmosphere for a
century or more.
Land Only: The January - August worldwide land surface temperature was 1.82 °F (1.01 °C) above the 20th
century average, the fifth
warmest such
period on record.
But they looked for 50 - year - long anomalies; the last
century's
warming, the IPCC concludes, occurred in two
periods of about 30 years each (with cooling in between).
In contrast, the consensus view among paleoclimatologists is that the Medieval
Warming Period was a regional phenomenon, that the worldwide nature of the Little Ice Age is open to question and that the late 20th
century saw the most extreme global average temperatures.
The
warmest period occurred in the late 20th
century — too short to meet Soon and Baliunas's selected requirement.
They concluded in the January Climate Research that «across the world, many records reveal that the 20th
century is probably not the
warmest nor a uniquely extreme climate
period of the last millennium.»
The new analysis suggests no discernable decrease in the rate of
warming between the second half of the 20th
century, a
period marked by manmade
warming, and the first fifteen years of the 21st
century, a
period dubbed a global
warming
June — August 2014, at 0.71 °C (1.28 °F) higher than the 20th
century average, was the
warmest such
period across global land and ocean surfaces since record keeping began in 1880, edging out the previous record set in 1998.
According to the AAAS What We Know report, «The projected rate of temperature change for this
century is greater than that of any extended global
warming period over the past 65 million years.»
With ENSO - neutral conditions present during the first half of 2013, the January — June global temperature across land and ocean surfaces tied with 2003 as the seventh
warmest such
period, at 0.59 °C (1.06 °F) above the 20th
century average.
The public, press and policy makers have been repeatedly told that three claims have widespread scientific support: Global temperature has risen about a degree since the late 19th
century; levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have increased by about 30 % over the same
period; and CO2 should contribute to future
warming.
For the Quelccaya Ice Cap (13.95 oS, 70.83 oW), this work revealed that peak temperatures of the mediaeval
warm period were
warmer than those of the last few decades of the 20th
century.»
peak temperatures of the mediaeval
warm period were
warmer than those of the last few decades of the 20th
century»?
In his Figure 5 under a section entitled «A New Northern Hemisphere Summer Temperature Record» he shows that the mid to late 20th
century temperature as determined from tree ring analysis is far
warmer than any
period in the past that his analysis includes (this only goes back to 1400 AD).
As discussed elsewhere on this site, modeling studies indicate that the modest cooling of hemispheric or global mean temperatures during the 15th - 19th
centuries (relative to the
warmer temperatures of the 11th - 14th
centuries) appears to have been associated with a combination of lowered solar irradiance and a particularly intense
period of explosive volcanic activity.
A confounding factor in discussions of this
period is the unfortunate tendency of some authors to label any warm peak prior to the 15th Century as the «Medieval Warm Period» in their r
period is the unfortunate tendency of some authors to label any
warm peak prior to the 15th Century as the «Medieval Warm Period» in their rec
warm peak prior to the 15th
Century as the «Medieval
Warm Period» in their rec
Warm Period» in their r
Period» in their record.
For the late 20th
century, a
period of strong greenhouse gas increases, but with diminishing solar influence, variability in ocean
warming shown in the profiles falls much further still.
Warm period during the mid-20th and 21st
centuries (modern solar maximum).
The State of the Climate November 2015 report noted that in order for 2015 to not become the
warmest year in the 136 - year
period of record, the December global temperature would have to be at least 0.81 °C (1.46 °F) below the 20th
century average — or 0.24 °C (0.43 °F) colder than the current record low December temperature of 1916.
In his seminal 1982 book Climate, History, and the Modern World, the renown climatologist Dr. H.H. Lamb revealed that sea ice in the subarctic and Arctic regions was much less extensive during the Medieval
Warm Period (9th - 13th
centuries) compared to today.
If you look at the proxy portion of the new Moberg graphic, you see nothing that would be problematic for opponents of the hockey stick: it shows a striking Medieval
Warm Period (MWP), a cold Little Ice Age and 20th
century warming not quite reaching MWP levels by 1979, when the proxy portion of the study ends.
The contiguous U.S. had its
warmest January - to - June
period since records began in the late 19th
century.
In the paper Gray makes many extravagant claims about how supposed changes in the THC accounted for various 20th
century climate changes («I judge our present global ocean circulation conditions to be similar to that of the
period of the early 1940s when the globe had shown great
warming since 1910, and there was concern as to whether this 1910 - 1940 global
warming would continue.
Simulations including an increased solar activity over the last
century give a CO2 initiated
warming of 0.2 ˚C and a solar influence of 0.54 ˚C over this
period, corresponding to a CO2 climate sensitivity of 0.6 ˚C (doubling of CO2) and a solar sensitivity of 0.5 ˚C (0.1 % increase of the solar constant).
He said that using an earlier baseline
period would have better captured all the
warming that has occurred, as there was some small amount already in the late 19th
century.
However, one of the panel's reservations was that ``... a statistical method used in the 1999 study was not the best and that some uncertainties in the work «have been underestimated,»...» The panel concluded «Based on the analyses presented in the original papers by Mann et al. and this newer supporting evidence, the committee finds it plausible that the Northern Hemisphere was
warmer during the last few decades of the 20th
century than during any comparable
period over the preceding millennium.
This concatenation, which has global temperature 13.9 °C in the base
period 1951 — 1980, has the first decade of the 21st
century slightly (∼ 0.1 °C)
warmer than the early Holocene maximum.
The public, press and policy makers have been repeatedly told that three claims have widespread scientific support: Global temperature has risen about a degree since the late 19th
century; levels of CO2 [carbon dioxide] in the atmosphere have increased by about 30 percent over the same
period; and CO2 should contribute to future
warming.
If you look back 12 months, the
period from June 2011 through May 2012 was the
warmest 12 - month block since records started to be kept more than a
century ago.