So why can't scientists say climate change «caused»
a certain extreme event?
Already, scientists have become much less reticent in tying the likelihood and severity of
certain extreme events directly to global warming, particularly heat waves.
Not exact matches
Organizations like Nuru Intl., which seeks to help end
extreme poverty, hold campus
events where students walk with a five - gallon bucket filled with water for a
certain amount of time or distance.
Carolyn Gramling writes about studies that, for the first time, blame specific
extreme weather
events on human - caused climate change —
certain to be a hot topic in 2018.
Extreme wet
events and milder cold spells are also expected to increase throughout the world, and
extreme dry
events will see an uptick in
certain regions, mainly in the midlatitudes.
Rather than assign blame to humans for particular
extremes, scientists could study a class of
events, such as heavy rainfall in a
certain geography, and say whether past human actions have increased their risk.
If global temperatures rise by up to 3 degrees Celsius above their preindustrial levels, the risk of
extreme events could grow by as much as fivefold in
certain parts of the world.
For example, Hurricane Katrina demonstrated how vulnerable
certain groups of people were to
extreme weather
events, because many low - income and of - color New Orleans residents were killed, injured, or had difficulty evacuating and recovering from the storm.242, 239,265,266,243,240,268,234,269,270
A new report released Friday by the National Academy of Sciences has found that such
extreme event attribution studies can be done reliably for
certain types of weather
extremes, including heavy precipitation.
A new analysis published in the journal Environmental Research Letters establishes that seasonal forecast sea surface temperature (SSTs) can be used to perform probabilistic
extreme -
event attribution, thereby accelerating the time it takes climate scientists to understand and quantify the role of global warming in
certain classes of
extreme weather
events.
There are some
extreme moments in these kinds of films where you know
certain events and casualties only happen in the movies.
Taleb (2005, 2007, 2012) within his books on financial markets and system dynamics Fooled by Randomness, Black Swan and Antifragile argues that our incapability to forecast in environments subjected to
extreme events including a lack of the awareness of this state of affairs means that
certain experts are claiming to tell the truth while in fact they are not.
One example of an effective metaphor that he provides (and indeed, which I sometimes use myself) is the notion of «weather on steroids» as a way of communicating the statistical nature of the subtle — but very real — influence that climate change is having on
certain types of
extreme weather
events.
According to one of the most
extreme opinion expressed by former Vice President and now Noble Laureate Al Gore in his book entitled «An Inconvenient Truth», we can be
certain to see catastrophic
events such as droughts, floods, epidemics, killer heat waves, etc. as a result of global warming.
But climate change is almost
certain to lead to more frequent and / or more intense
extreme events like fires, floods, and storms.
How should we estimate the cumulative likelyhood of a very
extreme event occurring at least once within a
certain number of future years?
For example, Hurricane Katrina demonstrated how vulnerable
certain groups of people were to
extreme weather
events, because many low - income and of - color New Orleans residents were killed, injured, or had difficulty evacuating and recovering from the storm.242, 239,265,266,243,240,268,234,269,270
2: Our Changing Climate).48, 190 Increases in both
extreme precipitation and total precipitation have contributed to increases in severe flooding
events in
certain regions (see Ch.
The effects of weather
extremes on human health have been well documented, particularly for increased heavy precipitation, which has contributed to increases in severe flooding
events in
certain regions.
According to Climate Communication, «All weather
events are now influenced by climate change because all weather now develops in a different environment than before... climate change has shifted the odds and changed the natural limits, making
certain types of
extreme weather more frequent and more intense.»
As discussed earlier, Hurricane Katrina demonstrated that communities of color, poor communities, and
certain other vulnerable populations (like new immigrant communities) are at a higher risk to the adverse effects of
extreme weather
events.263, 264,239 These vulnerable populations could benefit from urban planning policies that ensure that new buildings, including homes, are constructed to resist
extreme weather
events.303
It's difficult to say for
certain that a particular
extreme event for the monsoon is attributable to anthropogenic climate change — like the Pakistan floods of 2010 — but we do know that with a warming climate more moisture can be held in the atmosphere, leading to heavier rainfall when it does occur.
The biassed view of the cause on recent warming and
certain kind of
extreme events, which are believed by UN politicians to be due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, has to be replaced by working solutions regarded as due and fitting.
However, their use requires great care, as such documents may be biased towards describing only the more
extreme events, and are, in
certain cases, prone to the use of inconsistent language between different writers and different epochs, and to errors in dating.
These include possible increased anecdotal reporting of
extreme events through increased use of technology like camcorders, or scarcity of data for
certain land regions.
Certain types of
extreme weather
events with links to climate change have become more frequent and / or intense, including prolonged periods of heat, heavy downpours, and, in some regions, floods and droughts.
Increases in both
extreme precipitation and total precipitation have contributed to increases in severe flooding
events in
certain regions.
OxfamAmerica said that a «major contributor» to this price surge has been the disastrous effect of
extreme weather
events on harvests of
certain crops.
If the negative effects of climate change, the rising air temperatures, the changing precipitation, the prevalence of
extreme weather
events, and the rising sea levels, become too disruptive or costly, we have the option to deploy
certain climate altering technologies to remove greenhouse gases directly from the air or reflect sunlight back out of the atmosphere before it warms the earth.
The frequency and intensity of
certain types of
extreme weather
events are expected to change,» conclude the report authors — including an expert from the oil major ConocoPhillips.
Certain consequences of global warming are now inevitable, including sea level rise, more frequent and severe heat waves, growing wildfire risks, and an increase in
extreme weather
events.
Altered agricultural conditions, including
extreme heat, expanded water demands, and increased severe weather
events, will affect food availability and cost, particularly in vulnerable regions in which child undernutrition is already a major threat.43 The decreased protein, iron, and zinc content of
certain major crops has been demonstrated for plants grown under increased CO2 conditions, 44,45 carrying significant implications for child nutrition.
As for
certain specific expensive
extreme events (as opposed to generic weather), I stand by my own conclusion as someone with some lingering expertise, that Moscow / Pakistan 2010, Texas 2011, Sandy 2012, and the ongoing decline of Arctic sea ice, are
events with obvious physical / dynamical connections to our artificially altered climate.
The virtually
certain impacts include increasing temperatures, more frequent
extreme heat
events, changes in the distribution of rainfall, rising seas, and the oceans becoming more acidic.
Strong scientific evidence shows that global warming is increasing
certain types of
extreme weather
events, including heat waves, coastal flooding,
extreme precipitation
events, and more severe droughts.
The IPCC has already concluded that it is «virtually
certain that human influence has warmed the global climate system» and that it is «extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010» is anthropogenic.1 Its new report outlines the future threats of further global warming: increased scarcity of food and fresh water;
extreme weather
events; rise in sea level; loss of biodiversity; areas becoming uninhabitable; and mass human migration, conflict and violence.
Though the report still says, rightly, that any specific weather
event can not be solely tied to climate change — be it the totally unseasonable snowfall that hit the Northeast this past weekend, the devastating flooding in Thailand, etc. — but that scientists now are 99 %
certain that climate change will cause more
extreme heat waves, fewer
extreme spells of cold weather, and more intense downpours.
I am
certain that this generation will be forever marked by this
extreme event.
The first of the TAR chapters (Chapter 7) was largely devoted to impact issues for human settlements, concluding that settlements are vulnerable to effects of climate change in three major ways: through economic sectors affected by changes in input resource productivity or market demands for goods and services, through impacts on
certain physical infrastructures, and through impacts of weather and
extreme events on the health of populations.
The SREX clearly found a major increase in heat waves and
extreme precipitation
events, and in order to adapt to these occurrences, the intensity and frequency of which is likely to increase, it would be essential to take in hand urgently
certain low regrets measures.