Not exact matches
But while the destructive
effects of CFCs appear to
have been conquered, the global
warming almost
certainly induced by rising levels of carbon dioxide could tip the balance the other way, says Harris.
The first part of your description is
certainly true, I don't think the magnitude of the recent
warming in the Arctic (including Greenland) is extraordinary (yet, but ask me again is a few years) when properly set against the backdrop of the last century, but I do believe that, at least to some degree, the
warming of the Arctic (including Greenland) in recent years
has resulted from an anthropogenic enhancement to the world's greenhouse
effect.
Rate of percentage annual growth for carbon dioxide
has certainly increased since the beginning of the 21st century, but this should result in a significant change in the rate of
warming any more quickly than the differences between emission scenarios
would, and there (according to the models) the differences aren't significant for the first thirty - some years but progressively become more pronounced from then on — given the cummulative
effects of accumulated carbon dioxide.
Let's see... many models show that aerosols could
have been artificially keeping the world's average surface temperature cooler by about 3 - 5 degrees C from 1900 - 2000 --(sulfate aerosols
certainly have some certifiable cooling
effects cancelling out the
warming effects of CO2).
I'm pretty sure you can get the grey version of that into a strat - cooling / trop -
warming situation if you pick the strat absorbers right, but Andy is
certainly right that non-grey
effects play a crucial role in explaining quantitatively what is going on in the real atmosphere (that's connected with the non-grey explanation for the anomalously cold tropopause which I
have in Chapter 4, and also with the reason that aerosols do not produce stratospheric cooling, and everything depends a lot on what level you are looking at).
I watched this with growing disinterest — it was
certainly an answer to the Great global
warming swindle in that both were pretty dreadful — this was shockingly over simplistic and you knew from the start who was going to win — even Eastenders can manage a bit more intrigue — but then look what kind of rubbish passes for a subject on things like Panorama;
Having over done every other exciting angle on the «credit crunch» they did a program on how it's
effecting us — based super scientifically on a small sample of people moaning sorry responding to panorama online which somehow justified a whole program of what some people were doing like driving less or renting a room out — totally pointless.
We just said that human
effects have a
warming influence, and that's
certainly true.
While a number of natural factors
have certainly contributed to the overall decline in sea ice, the
effects of greenhouse
warming are now coming through loud and clear.»
The very limited basic premise is that CO2 at certain concentrations can
have a
warming effect, but that
effect is very mild and
certainly can not account for the
warming previous to the 1970's.
The evidence for this
effect is not definitive, and it
certainly has not limited the tropical
warming to this point in time.
He
certainly reduced the noise in the trend by a lot, and gets a pretty good steady trend, which is what
would be expected from a steady
warming effect due to increasing GHG's in the atmosphere.
The best course, he says,
would be to adopt a modest carbon tax — because there are
certainly some ill
effects of global
warming — and adjust it as we learn more.
Since no scientists
have made a claim of direct cause and
effect (see our recent post on potential statistical links between hurricane intensity and tropical
warming), any scientific assessment (such as the next IPCC report) will
certainly not do so either.
If you argue that CO2's absorption ability was saturated in earlier events, then you
have to argue that it is saturated today, and that incremental CO2 will
have no further
warming effect, which AGW supporters are
certainly NOT arguing.
One thing I
would add — it ought to be obvious (and I
certainly hope it is) that a process of «winding back and decelerating the present form of capitalism», including «more social democracy, more regulation», will only be effective at mitigating the
effect of global
warming (partially or wholly), if it includes a large suite of policies specifically aimed at addressing global
warming, that is, replacing emissions - producing activities or processes (particularly energy sources) with non emissions - producing ones.