If the model is run for long enough (or better still, the experiment is repeated often enough), the effects
of chance fluctuations average out.
The risks have been «smoothed» to adjust
for chance fluctuations that can occur when there are small numbers of cases especially for cancers such as leukemia and brain cancer.
When these influences are combined
with chance fluctuations due to sampling error — inherent in all surveys, regardless of how carefully they are designed — it is often impossible to tell exactly why surveys yield different results.
A movement of that size is rather bigger than would normally be expected to occur as a result of
the chance fluctuations to which all polls are subject, though we might still want to suspend our judgement and await further polling evidence before presuming that the SNP's lead has actually grown.
Scientists have wondered whether this difference is meaningful, or just
a chance fluctuation.
Changes must also be large enough to indicate meaningful improvements rather than
chance fluctuations.