For instance, scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey figure a 63 percent
chance of a major earthquake rocking the San Francisco Bay Area in the next 30 years.
The organization has recently been in the spotlight as a result of an ongoing trial in L'Aquila, in which seven scientists and engineers who served on Italy's «Great Risks Commission» — including longtime INGV President Enzo Boschi — face charges of manslaughter for allegedly downplaying
the chances of a major earthquake before the lethal tremor that struck the city in April 2009.
For example, there is a common misconception that having many smaller earthquakes can somehow «relieve» a major fault such as the San Andreas, and reduce
the chance of a major earthquake.
Not exact matches
With a time line
of 41 events the science team at OSU has now calculated that the California — Oregon end
of Cascadia's fault has a 37 percent
chance of producing a
major earthquake in the next 50 years.
He says that the
chance of another powerful tremor occurring in the area close to the epicenter
of a
major earthquake gets «up to the order
of some percent» over the following week, but notes that the size
of the area in question is difficult to define accurately.
While
chances are good that any
earthquakes experienced by South Carolina residents will be mild, experts warn
of the potential for a
major quake that will bring expensive destruction throughout the state.