The statement made in that message implies that the temperature
change at earth surface is the one temperature change that is most firmly related to radiative forcing.
Not exact matches
Just as the cultural
change of the Axial Period occurred more or less simultaneously and independently
at several points on the
earth's
surface, so the new global form of spirituality may well germinate
at many different points and then take more visible form as those points form a network.
Climate
change influences magmatic production, in particular via the effects on erosion and hydrology, which modify the pressure exerted
at Earth's
surface on the deep layers.
Williams and his team also predict big
changes in the Sahara — but because the desert is already the hottest biome on
Earth's
surface, there is no existing ecosystem to provide a guess
at what an even hotter Sahara might look like.
The deep ocean, which covers more than 60 percent of
Earth's
surface, is a biodiversity hotspot
at increased risk from climate
change.
The original fabric in these plates stays stable for so long
at the
Earth's
surface, that it is eye opening to see how dramatically and quickly that can
change,» Lara added.
But the
change from 2004 to 2007 in the sun's output of visible light, and the attendant warming at Earth's surface of 0.1 watt per square meter, is roughly equivalent to the overall forcing of the sun on the climate over the past 25 years — estimated by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to be an additional 0.12 watt per square
change from 2004 to 2007 in the sun's output of visible light, and the attendant warming
at Earth's
surface of 0.1 watt per square meter, is roughly equivalent to the overall forcing of the sun on the climate over the past 25 years — estimated by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change to be an additional 0.12 watt per square
Change to be an additional 0.12 watt per square meter.
The
surface of the
Earth radiates as a blackbody
at its temperature which is continually
changing because it is being heated by the sun, or it is cooling during the night.
Abstract: Temperature
changes at the
Earth's
surface propagate downward into the subsurface and impart a thermal signature to the rocks.
They calculate
changes in heat flows, moisture
changes, and other factors in three - dimensional grid boxes — and do so in
Earth's atmosphere,
at its
surface, and beneath the
surface of the oceans — with grid boxes interacting with their neighbors.
5) a geophysical model of how shifting mass around
at the
Earth's
surface changes the
Earth's gravity field and rotation and deforms the
surface of the planet.
The study simply wasn't aimed
at identifying any causes of mass loss — it merely observed these losses using NASA's twin GRACE satellites, which measure mass and gravitational
changes at the
Earth's
surface, and tied them to the resulting polar motion.
So does mass
change at the
Earth's
surface, which can come from shifts in ice sheets, or even possibly in major atmospheric wind currents.
Since we know that the
earth's
surface is significantly warmed by geothermal heat, that geothermal heat is variable, that truly titanic forces are
at work in the
earth's core
changing its structure and alignment, and that geothermal heat flux has a much greater influence on
surface temperatures than variations in carbon dioxide can possibly have, it makes sense to include its effects in a compendium of global warming discussion parameters.
Specifically, he states «Research indicates, more and more, that recent warming
at the
surface of the
Earth is mainly influenced by cyclical
changes at the
surface of the sun...» I am not in the field but I was not aware of any recent research about the sun affecting recent warming.
Temperature tends to respond so that, depending on optical properties, LW emission will tend to reduce the vertical differential heating by cooling warmer parts more than cooler parts (for the
surface and atmosphere); also (not significant within the atmosphere and ocean in general, but significant
at the interface betwen the
surface and the air, and also significant (in part due to the small heat fluxes involved, viscosity in the crust and somewhat in the mantle (where there are thick boundary layers with superadiabatic lapse rates) and thermal conductivity of the core) in parts of the
Earth's interior) temperature
changes will cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differential heating.
Is it not the case that
at the end of the last ice age, there was increased seismic activity due to
changes in the weight of ice on the
earth's
surface?
Abstract: Temperature
changes at the
Earth's
surface propagate downward into the subsurface and impart a thermal signature to the rocks.
Secondly, the equations allow you to prediction that
change in both radiation received
at earth's
surface or emitted to space as atmospheric GHG composition
changes with exquisite accuracy.
Regional and global ensembles of boreholes reveal the broader patterns of temperature
changes at the
Earth's
surface.
I have read a bit about greenhouse gases, reflection of heat from
Earth's
surface, etc. but can't imagine man having any real significant ability to
change Earth's temperature
at all.
The IPCC 2001 report states «Several recent reconstructions estimate that variations in solar irradiance give rise to a forcing
at the
Earth's
surface of about 0.6 to 0.7 Wm - 2 since the Maunder Minimum and about half this over the 20th century... All reconstructions indicate that the direct effect of variations in solar forcing over the 20th century was about 20 to 25 % of the
change in forcing due to increases in the well - mixed greenhouse gases.»
That's ironic that you mention that particular property of CO2, because there are scientist that theorize that, since CO2 is heavier, the GCM models are not correct — most CO2 produced
at Earth's
surface NEVER gets well mixed in fact most CO2 gets removed by rainfall, or gets absorbed by plants or the ocean long before it can cause any
change in the so - called Greenhouse gas effect (but the GHG theory is not correct anyway) and the fact that they have severly underestimated CO2 upweelinng from the dee
Large uncertainties in
surface temperature
change may exist
at every single grid point of the
Earth.
«From Dimming to Brightening: Decadal
Changes in Solar Radiation
at Earth's
Surface.»
What's lost in a lot of the discussion about human - caused climate
change is not that the sum of human activities is leading to some warming of the
earth's temperature, but that the observed rate of warming (both
at the
earth's
surface and throughout the lower atmosphere) is considerably less than has been anticipated by the collection of climate models upon whose projections climate alarm (i.e., justification for strict restrictions on the use of fossil fuels) is built.
Sea
surface temperature (SST) measured from
Earth Observation Satellites in considerable spatial detail and
at high frequency, is increasingly required for use in the context of operational monitoring and forecasting of the ocean, for assimilation into coupled ocean - atmosphere model systems and for applications in short - term numerical weather prediction and longer term climate
change detection.
These facts were enough for an NAS panel, including Christy, to publish a report Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature
Change which concluded that «Despite differences in temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the
Earth's
surface is undoubtedly real, and
surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen
at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 years»
When polar ice melts the
earth changes shape: mass (ice) which was concentrated
at the poles, with a short arm of inertia, is spread evenly around the ocean
surface, averaging something like 63 degrees latitude.
Dr. Svalgaard face the facts, and facts are, as by now you know far better than I do (thanks to the work Vukcevic has done) that: It appears that the temperature natural
change in the N. Hemisphere directly correlates to the combined
changes in two magnetic fields as measured
at the
Earth's
surface: http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GSC1.htm To paraphrase Dr. Svalgaard of Stanford: If correlation is really good, one can live with an as yet undiscovered mechanism.
It appears that the temperature natural
change in the N. Hemisphere directly correlates to the combined
changes in two magnetic fields as measured
at the
Earth's
surface The combination is physically invalid and made - up, possibly for the purpose of producing a correlation: «hmmm, let's see what combination of data would give me a correlation...»
Such temperature
changes at the
Earth's solid
surface then propagate into the subsurface by heat conduction through the soil and rock.»
When an additional force acting
at a distance from the
Earth's rotational axis occurs, referred to as a torque, such as
changes in
surface winds, or the distribution of high and low pressure patterns, especially near mountains, it can act to
change the rate of the
Earth's rotation or even the direction of the rotational axis.
To believe that Mann is right, you have to believe that the developer of the first satellite global temperature record, and the winner of the International Meetings on Statistical Climatology achievement award, and the co-editor of The Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, and the co-editor of Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, and the co-founder of the Berkeley
Earth Surface Temperature project, and a member of the UN Secretary - General's High Level Group on Sustainable Energy, and the Professor of Meteorology
at the Meteorological Institute of Berlin Free University, and the Professor of Climate and Culture
at King's College, London, and the Professor of the Economics of Climate
Change at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, and the former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and the former director of research
at the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute, and the director of the Center for Climatic Research
at the University of Delaware, and three professors
at the Department of Geology and Geophysics
at the University of Utah, and the scientist
at Columbia's Lamont - Doherty
Earth Observatory who coined the term «global warming», and dozens more are all wrong, every single one of them.
Mototaka Nakamura, a senior scientist
at the Japan Agency for Marine -
Earth Science and Technology, analyzed
surface temperatures of the Greenland Sea from 1957 to the present and how they affect climate
change.
By picking one specific area of only one of the spheres (
surface temperatures), while it might be one piece of interesting information and it certainly it is quite true that
surface temperatures have been flat
at or near record high levels, focusing on this fact alone and the fact that climate models failed to have forecast it, does very little overall good if the goal is to educate the public about the bigger picture, i.e. anthropogenic climate
change as an energy imbalance affecting the whole
Earth energy system, including all the spheres discussed above.
The temperature
at various locations in the atmosphere and on the
surface of the
earth is determined by the net flux of energy
at that location (and never reaches true equilibrium because the energy input from the sun
changes with night / day and the seasons).
A simple model for this is to consider first 2 flat plates, separated by some distance, with one plate
at Earth's mean
surface temperature and the other
at absolute zero (OK, real universe is
at ~ 3K, but it won't
change the description by much).
Rohde, R. et al: «A new estimate of the average
earth surface land temperature spanning 1753 to 2011», Manuscript: text presented
at the 3rd Santa Fe conference on global and regional climate temperature
change, 2011
That suggests that cooling may start with
changes in the ocean circulation, influencing the northern sea
surface and atmosphere, said co-author Jerry McManus, a professor
at Lamont - Doherty
Earth Observatory.
But for the past four years, even though negotiators have never arrived
at a plan for avoiding dangerous climate
change, they have agreed on a goal: limiting the increase in the
Earth's global average
surface temperature to 2 °C (3.6 °F) above the preindustrial level.
For instance, researchers still don't completely understand the role of aerosols in the atmosphere, the variable effects of clouds
at different heights, and the influence of feedback mechanisms such as the
changing reflectivity of the
Earth's
surface and the release of gases from permafrost or deep seabeds.
The 2013 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) stated that «each of the last three decades has been successively warmer
at the
Earth's
surface than any preceding decade since 1850».
Temperature
changes at and just above the
earth's
surface are of singular importance from the standpoint of societal and human impacts, and they are also widely regarded as an important indicator of human - induced climate
change.
In addition to
changes in atmospheric composition, land use
changes can be a significant factor in causing climate
change at the
earth's
surface.
and all working together to form a crude electric motor that deflects charged particles from the sun, which also deflect charged particles from space — while also pulling on the molten core to divert its heat to different parts of the
Earth's
surface at different rates... while other rocks orbiting the sun, also affect the
Earth's axial tilt, particularly Jupiter, thereby
changing temperature - extremes.
Evidence for
changes in the climate system abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans (Figure 2.1).1 Scientists and engineers from around the world have compiled this evidence using satellites, weather balloons, thermometers
at surface stations, and many other types of observing systems that monitor the
Earth's weather and climate.
«Climate science» as it is used by warmists implies adherence to a set of beliefs: (1) Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will warm the
Earth's
surface and atmosphere; (2) Human production of CO2 is producing significant increases in CO2 concentration; (3) The rate of rise of temperature in the 20th and 21st centuries is unprecedented compared to the rates of
change of temperature in the previous two millennia and this can only be due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations; (4) The climate of the 19th century was ideal and may be taken as a standard to compare against any current climate; (5) global climate models, while still not perfect, are good enough to indicate that continued use of fossil fuels
at projected rates in the 21st century will cause the CO2 concentration to rise to a high level by 2100 (possibly 700 to 900 ppm); (6) The global average temperature under this condition will rise more than 3 °C from the late 19th century ideal; (7) The negative impact on humanity of such a rise will be enormous; (8) The only alternative to such a disaster is to immediately and sharply reduce CO2 emissions (reducing emissions in 2050 by 80 % compared to today's rate) and continue further reductions after 2050; (9) Even with such draconian CO2 reductions, the CO2 concentration is likely to reach
at least 450 to 500 ppm by 2100 resulting in significant damage to humanity; (10) Such reductions in CO2 emissions are technically feasible and economically affordable while providing adequate energy to a growing world population that is increasingly industrializing.
Any
change in the amount of stuff in the atmosphere has no effect on the average temperature of the
earth's
surface because there is a balance
at work.
When someone talks about climate
change and warming in particular it would only make sense if they meant that the average temperature accross the
earths surface is warmer than it used to be
at some point in the past.