Finally, there are constraints based
on changes in forcing and response over the recent past (transient constraints).
Practice the following exercise daily until you notice a
definite change in the force of the bite: offer your hand to your puppy to chew on.
Hence the deduction of the estimated change in ocean heat uptake from the estimated
change in forcing before comparison with the change in global temperature to derive sensitivity.
However, if we are concerned with the rate of warming we probably shouldn't be looking at forcing but rate
of change in forcing.
HOWEVER, there has been a 1 - 2 W / m2
change in forcing from rising GHGs since instruments have observed the Earth from space.
If the models are unable to predict the forced response of the climate (i.e. the climate change caused
by changes in forcings such as CO2) then I don't see how they can be expected to accurately model the unforced response (internal climate variability).
In the meantime, back in cotton wool land: «Since the time of AR4, neither global mean temperature nor OHU have increased, while the IPCC's own estimate of the post-1750
change in forcing net of OHU has increased by over 60 %.»
A further recent study uses Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) data (Forster and Gregory, 2006) in addition to surface temperature changes to estimate climate feedbacks (and thus ECS) from
observed changes in forcing and climate.
Taking both the upper limit of the 4 — 5 C warming range and a lower limit for the forcing change, deducting Kohler's 1.9 W / m2 upper limit of uncertainty from the 9.5 W /
m2 change in forcing, implies an upper bound for the ECS estimate of 2.44 C.
Regarding James comments about the difference in frequency response to a positive versus
negative change in forcing (volcanic versus warming)... isn't an example of the sort of nonlinearities that lead to hysteresis?
Changes in this torsion angle were measured by a laser bounced off the reflective cantilever, providing an indication of
changes in the force exerted on the tip, the viscous resistance exerted — and therefore the water's effective viscosity.
But if the data repeatedly showed proportional changes in climate associated with
specific changes in forcings — which I believe is what the data do show — then it seems to me that a reasonable inference can be drawn.