So I wonder if this 0.048 Wm ^ -2 figure (AD1750 - 2000) is the net annual
change in insolation due to orbit (of which duncansteel CSI is but a small part).
Small changes in insolation driven by changes in the Earth's orbit can push the planet into or out of an ice age through the planet's «climate feedback» mechanisms.
A 2000 - year transient climate simulation with the Community Climate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to
changes in insolation as does our proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long - term trend was caused by the steady orbitally driven reduction in summer insolation.
This succession of glacials and interglacials is caused by
changes in insolation brought about by cyclical variations in the distance between Earth and the Sun and in the tilt and direction of our planet's rotation axis relative to the Sun.
What we know with some certainty about oceans (if data is to be believed) is that the
intra-annual change in the insolation effects (suspiciously) high symmetricity in the N. Atlantic's sea surface temperature, cantered on 1st of March and 31st of August.
Causes of radiative forcing
include changes in insolation and the concentrations of radiatively active gases, commonly known as greenhouse gases and aerosols.
Yet some people all too readily abandon logic and take that to mean that increasing CO2 in the absence of a
initial change in insolation will not warm the atmosphere and thereby change climate.
It's the same series of an initial forcing (
change in insolation due to Milankovitch orbital cycles) being amplified by reinforcing feedbacks (change in albedo, change in temperature and partial pressure regulating both CO2 and H2O), but in reverse from an exit from a glacial period.
Another major climate oscillation around 7500 — 7000 cal BP may have resulted from combined effects of a strong rate
of change in insolation and of variations in solar activity.»
Changes in insolation are also thought to have arisen from small variations in solar irradiance, although both timing and magnitude of past solar radiation fluctuations are highly uncertain (see Chapters 2 and 6; Lean et al., 2002; Gray et al., 2005; Foukal et al., 2006).
How do monsoons and the intertropical convergence zone respond to
the changes in insolation that accompany variations in Earth's orbit around the sun?
The dynamics of monsoonal circulation are known to be strongly dependent on precession - driven and obliquity - driven
changes in insolation.
``... climate oscillation around 7500 — 7000 cal BP may have resulted from combined effects of a strong rate of
change in insolation and of variations in solar activity.»
«I note in passing the scale showing
the changes in insolation for the correct (left - hand) graphic.