The change in insolation due to orbital changes are significant, of the order of 50 W / m2, or 50 times larger than the change of TSI over the solar cycle.
It's the same series of an initial forcing (
change in insolation due to Milankovitch orbital cycles) being amplified by reinforcing feedbacks (change in albedo, change in temperature and partial pressure regulating both CO2 and H2O), but in reverse from an exit from a glacial period.
Changes in insolation due to the sun's orbital cycles, or Milankovitch cycles, correspond with the recent 100,000 - year cycles of past major ice ages.
Not exact matches
Furthermore, while the deep wind is stable,
in the upper atmosphere the speed and width of the equatorial stream are highly changeable, perhaps
due to the seasonal
insolation cycle on Saturn, and their intensity is increased by the
changing shadowing of the rings above the equator.
The major mid-Holocene forcing relative to the present was
due to orbital perturbations that led to large
changes in the seasonal cycle of
insolation.
Multiple causal factors have been suggested for the LIA:
insolation change due to orbital cycles; low solar activity; high volcanic activity; and reduced atmospheric CO2
due to forest regrowth following human population collapses (the «Black Death»
in Europe and Asia, and Columbian contact
in the Americas.)
I suspect that solar
insolation is a primary driver of snow and ice melt above 60 Deg., even to the point of sublimation
due to
changes in vapor pressure.
Changes in eccentricity alone have limited impacts on insolation, due to the resulting very small changes in the distance between the Sun and the
Changes in eccentricity alone have limited impacts on
insolation,
due to the resulting very small
changes in the distance between the Sun and the
changes in the distance between the Sun and the Earth.
The summer - winter
changes in insolation are much larger than those
due to human - induced greenhouse gas
changes; the seasonal
change is mainly
in the visible part of the electromagnetic spectrum while the greenhouse gas forcing is
in the infrared; the greenhouse gas influence is global while the seasonal
changes are opposite
in the two hemispheres; and we have a much longer history of observing the seasonal
changes, so a more or less correct prediction can be made empirically, without any physical understanding.
As Roy Spencer points out, it doesn't take much of a
change in cloud cover to account for global warming
due to increased
insolation * at the ocean surface *.
Kukla rightly noted that the «
change in the heat income
due to Milankovitch mechanism is so minute that it can not lead directly to glaciation or deglaciation... Only when multiplied by some efficient feedback mechanism can the
insolation trigger climatic
change».
His answer to that problem is found
in changes in seasonal albedo
due to the increased seasonal
insolation.
The small
changes in insolation will cause earlier and more extensive spring melting of Arctic ice, and indeed less ice formation over winter because northern winters are now shorter and milder than they were
in 1750,
due to apsidal precession.
In the absence of some large change in the short period of the last two or six or eight or eighteen - hundred years in Earth's -LCB- orbit, core, magnetic field, insolation, axial tilt, etc -RCB-, there's a simple explanation for any part of the behavior that is actually due to anything other than noise et al
In the absence of some large
change in the short period of the last two or six or eight or eighteen - hundred years in Earth's -LCB- orbit, core, magnetic field, insolation, axial tilt, etc -RCB-, there's a simple explanation for any part of the behavior that is actually due to anything other than noise et al
in the short period of the last two or six or eight or eighteen - hundred years
in Earth's -LCB- orbit, core, magnetic field, insolation, axial tilt, etc -RCB-, there's a simple explanation for any part of the behavior that is actually due to anything other than noise et al
in Earth's -LCB- orbit, core, magnetic field,
insolation, axial tilt, etc -RCB-, there's a simple explanation for any part of the behavior that is actually
due to anything other than noise et al..
Rob, «The biggest swings
in climate are
due to runaway ice feedbacks to
changes in thermohaline circulation —
in periods of low NH summer
insolation.»
The major mid-Holocene forcing relative to the present was
due to orbital perturbations that led to large
changes in the seasonal cycle of
insolation.
Ice ages do not end
due to
changes in solar activity, they end
due to
changes in Earth's orbit and axial tilt that result
in increases
in solar
insolation.