Virtually ice - free summers in the arctic sea could well arrive by 2030, with troubling implications for accelerated albedo feedback and possibly
disruptive changes in the jet stream.
Further adding to the divide within the climate science community is the fact that many of the climate models that Trenberth and others often use do not show the sorts
of changes in the jet stream that the new study and others like it have pointed to, including the more frequently stagnated or «blocked» weather patterns that Francis cited.
Results: Led by Dr. Jian Lu, an atmospheric scientist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, researchers investigated
changes in the jet stream using a series of climate simulations.
But Robeson said the observation aligns with theories about climate change, which hold that amplified warming in the Arctic region
produces changes in the jet stream, which can result in extended periods of cold weather at some locations in the mid-northern latitudes.
One was published several months ago in Geophysical Research Letters by James Screen and Ian Simmonds, who looked
for changes in jet stream characteristics using a different methodology than that of Francis and Vavrus.
«If loss of sea ice is
driving changes in the jet stream, the jet stream is changing Greenland, and this, in turn, has an impact on the Arctic system as well as the climate.
Researchers are already beginning to connect
such changes in the jet stream to weather effects in mid-latitudes such as the unseasonable blasts of cold Arctic air known as the polar vortex.
The QBO entered its easterly phase at higher altitudes, 1.5 hPa zonal winds decreased sharply, NH polar ozone levels around 45 km increased while the same region saw a drop in temperature, the AO went negative with an
abrupt change in jet stream behavior that Europe is now witnessing via some fairly brutal weather.
First, though, as I've reported, scientists a decade ago not only predicted the loss of Arctic ice would dry out California, they also precisely predicted the specific,
unprecedented change in the jet stream that has in fact caused the unprecedented nature of the California drought.
In an email conversation with Mashable, the study's lead author says that since 2000,
observed changes in the jet stream have increasingly led to «a synchronization of extremes around the hemisphere.»
Wind and atmospheric conditions,
including changes in the jet stream, would be more likely to push major storms further offshore, away from the big population centres along the Atlantic coast, the researchers found.
[Response: He was just interviewed and was asked specifically
about changes in the jet stream and this was misconstrued to imply that MO statement about intense precip was wrong.
These detected changes in mid-latitude storm tracks are likely linked to
changes in the jet stream and planetary waves in the atmosphere.
Sea - level rise,
changes in the jet stream and different water patterns in the Atlantic Ocean are some global manifestations of climate change, they said.
Those changes may include the loss of Arctic summer sea ice, the collapse of ice sheets in Greenland and western Antarctica, dieback of the Amazon rainforest and
changes in the jet stream and the pattern of El Niño and La Niña weather cycles.
According to climate scientist Michael Mann, it's very possible that several of the recent severe and costly extreme weather outbreaks are linked to
changes in the jet stream he identified in a recent study.
Last winter, many of us experienced first - hand the result of
this change in the jet stream, Francis says: when it is forced northward by warm air near the Arctic, it compensates by bulging southward just downstream of that air.
Southern California has gotten quite bit of weather lately, thanks to
the changes in the jet stream track in this El Niño year.
Climatologists say that
changes in the jet streams are closely tied to global warming, especially the polar jet streams, because there is a great deal of evidence that the North and South poles are warming faster than the remainder of the planet.
Some research has pointed out a link between the warming Arctic and
changes in the jet stream, contributing to unprecedented weather extremes over the last few years.
If
a change in the jet stream really is a leading indicator of solar activity, then no new cycle is on the horizon.