Vinny: «They were trying to split out the effects of climate
change on crop yields — a worthwhile exercise, no?»
They were trying to split out the effects of climate
change on crop yields — a worthwhile exercise, no?
Negative impacts of climate
change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts (some positive trends are evident in some high latitude regions).
Temperature trends are therefore important for determining both past and future impacts of climate
change on crop yields at sub-continental to global scales.
In fact the Summary says that negative impacts of climate
change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts, with wheat and maize yields negatively affected in many regions and effects on rice and soybean yields smaller in major production regions.
But it's a funny kind of world in which it is known that «negative impacts of climate
change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts», and yet yields per acre and in total have increased.
Overall, the report said, «Negative impacts of climate
change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts.»
Based on many studies covering a wide range of regions and crops, negative impacts of climate
change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts (high confidence)... Since AR4, several periods of rapid food and cereal price increases following climate extremes in key producing regions indicate a sensitivity of current markets to climate extremes among other factors (medium confidence).
«Most modeling studies that look at the impact of climate
change on crop yield and the fate of agriculture don't take into account whether the water available for irrigation will change,» Monier says.
Not exact matches
«Higher temperatures and
changes in precipitation result in pressure
on yields from important
crops in much of the world,» says IFPRI agricultural economist Gerald Nelson, an author of the report, «Climate
Change, Agriculture, and Food Security: Impacts and Costs of Adaptation to 2050».
The researchers also cautioned that the impacts of a
changing climate
on crop yields remain uncertain.
Improved agricultural water management could halve the global food gap by 2050 and buffer some of the harmful climate
change effects
on crop yields.
Based
on historical patterns of emigration,
crop yield and climate
change between 1995 and 2005, the researchers project that as much as 10 percent of Mexico's population could be forced to migrate in coming decades.
«The results clearly showed that modest amounts of climate
change can have a big impact
on yields of several
crops in Europe,» said Stanford doctoral student Frances Moore, who conducted the research with David Lobell, an associate professor of environmental Earth system science.
Lloyd, S. J., R. S. Kovats, and Z. Chalabi, 2011: Climate
change,
crop yields, and undernutrition: Development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios
on child undernutrition.
We focus instead
on one major insect pest --- wheat stem sawfly (Cephus cinctus Norton)--
on Montana's dominant
crop, wheat, to illustrate the mechanisms and principles involved in assessing climate
change effects
on agricultural pests and their impacts
on crop yield or quality.
While climate
change in recent decades has been found to negatively affect
crop yields in many regions, a new study led by Carnegie's Julia Pongratz is the first to examine the potential effect of geoengineering
on food security.
Essentially, big agra has hybridized wheat heavily over the last 5 decades to improve things such as
crop yield and baking characteristics, but never once thought about the impacts
on human health of
changing the biochemical structure of wheat.
Just like
on console and PC, the selling price of the different
crops regularly
changes, but because you don't have to wait very long between harvests, you can sell your
yield, buy a tractor, and make most of that money back in under an hour.
Climate
change effects
on agriculture will have consequences for food security both in the U.S. and globally, not only through
changes in
crop yields, but also
changes in the ways climate affects food processing, storage, transportation, and retailing.
In fact, the I.P.C.C. WGII report, in the chapter
on North America says «Research since the [last IPCC report] supports the conclusion that moderate climate
change will likely increase
yields on North American rain fed agriculture... Most studies project likely climate - related
yield increases of 5 - 20 % over the first decades of the century... Major challenges are projected for
crops that are near the warm end of their suitable range or depend
on highly utilized water resources.»
A new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences examining the effects
on immigration of decreased
crop yields due to climate
change finds that by 2080 millions of Mexican farmers could be forced to
On the pro side, supporters claim that
changes to the genetic structure of a plant can help it resist weed killers, avoid pests, and
yield more
crops, but the anti-GMOers remind us that the long - term effects of these foods just aren't clear.
Agricultural Impacts
Crop yield may decrease if climate
changes As droughts increase, the demand for irrigation water increases putting more stress
on already depleted aquifers.
Lobell, D. B. and M. B. Burke, 2010:
On the use of statistical models to predict
crop yield responses to climate
change.
A recent meta - analysis published in the journal Nature Climate
Change, by Challinor et al. (2014) examines 1,722 crop model simulations, run using global climate model output under several emissions scenarios, to evaluate the potential effects of climate change and adaptation on crop
Change, by Challinor et al. (2014) examines 1,722
crop model simulations, run using global climate model output under several emissions scenarios, to evaluate the potential effects of climate
change and adaptation on crop
change and adaptation
on crop yield.
Higher temperatures will have an impact
on yields while
changes in rainfall could affect both
crop quality and quantity.»
Lloyd, S. J., R. S. Kovats, and Z. Chalabi, 2011: Climate
change,
crop yields, and undernutrition: Development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios
on child undernutrition.
Many
crop yields are predicted to decline due to the combined effects of
changes in rainfall, severe weather events, and increasing competition from weeds and pests
on crop plants (Ch.
The additional processes included in the JULES model will provide a more complete picture of water resources of South Asia than previously possible, allowing quantitative analysis of the effects of
changes in river flow and glaciers
on water resources and the implications of these
changes on water availability for irrigation and therefore
crop yields.
It is important to understand the relationship between climate
change, earlier growing seasons and pollination to ensure food
on the table and profitable
crop yields.
These tools provide the means to sharpen assessment and management capacities required to: compare the result of several water allocations plans; improve soil - moisture control - practices under rainfed conditions; optimize irrigation scheduling; sustainably intensify
crop production; close the
yield and water - productivity gaps; quantify the impact of climate variability and
change on cropping systems; enhance strategies for increased water productivity and water savings; minimize the negative impact
on the environment caused by agriculture.
This analytical report provides an overview of what climate
change will mean to subsistence and smallholder farmers in Lesotho, and how the capacity for climate
change adaptation in agriculture can be strengthened, focusing
on selected areas of
crops, livestock and forest - based livelihood systems, to stabilize and improve
yields.
In order to generate such enormous losses (of 50 % to 70 % of
crop yields), the study not only has to focus
on a very unlikely climate outcome, but also has to assume that farmers stupidly ignore the
changing conditions for the next 85 years.
Posted in Agriculture, Biodiversity, Carbon, Development and Climate
Change, Disasters and Climate
Change, Environment, Food, Information and Communication, Land, Learning, Lessons, Livelihood, News, Population, Research, Vulnerability, Water Comments Off
on Crop Yields Stall In China, India
Comment (2 - 13): The Southeastern Legal Foundation provides the following reaction to the African rain - fed agriculture projection, which appeared in the Sunday Times (Leake, 2010a) and comes from former IPCC chair Robert Watson: «Any such projection [pertaining to African
crop yields] should be based
on peer - reviewed literature from computer modeling of how agricultural
yields would respond to climate
change.
Comment (2 - 11): Referring to an analysis published by Ben Pile, co-editor of the blog climateresistance.org
on the blog of Roger Pielke, Jr. (Pile, 2010), the Southeastern Legal Foundation states that the primary reference supporting the IPCC's statement
on African
crop yields «Vulnerability of North African Countries to Climatic
Changes» (Agoumi, 2003) was from IISD, an advocacy group.
Moderate climate
change in the coming decades is projected to increase overall
yields by 5 - 20 %
on agricultural lands that rely of rainfall, although major challenges are projected for
crops that are near the warm end of their suitable range.
Response (2 - 11): The implication that the credibility of IPCC's statement
on African
crop yields is diminished because the IPCC's source (Agoumi, 2003) for the statement was published by an advocacy organization or an organization with a «declared political interest in climate
change» is unsupported.
Satellite imaging highlights the growing need to
change agricultural practices in South Asia as higher average temperatures cause the reduction of
crop yields on the Indo - Gangetic plain.
On the whole, Betts noted, food security would be at risk around the world, not just due to
changing crop yields but also because of extreme weather events.
As far as
crops go, the problem is this:
Changes to the hydrological cycle as a result of global warming may be neutral
on a 100 - year timescale, as far as
crop yields are concerned.
«We conclude that gradual temperature
changes have had a measurable impact
on crop yield trends.
Summary of estimated impacts of observed climate
changes on yields over 1960 - 2013 for four major
crops in temperate and tropical regions.
Among the economic costs climate
change is expected to enact
on the United States over the next 25 years are: $ 35 million in annual property losses from hurricanes and other coastal storms, $ 12 billion a year as a result of heat wave - driven demand for electricity, and tens of billions of dollars from the corn and wheat industry due to a 14 percent drop in
crop yields.
This Science Brief covers two papers in the journals Nature Climate
Change and Science, on how crop yield may be affected by climate change and adapt
Change and Science,
on how
crop yield may be affected by climate
change and adapt
change and adaptation.
Climate
change,
crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios
on child undernutrition.
say it has been predicted that «the average temperature in the semiarid northwest portion of China in 2050 will be 2.2 °C higher than it was in 2002,» and they report that based
on the observed results of their study, this increase in temperature «will lead to a significant
change in the growth stages and water use of winter wheat,» such that «
crop yields at both high and low altitudes will likely increase,» by 2.6 % at low altitudes and 6.0 % at high altitudes... Even without the benefits of the aerial fertilization effect and the anti-transpiration effect of the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content, the increase in temperature that is predicted by climate models for the year 2050, if it ever comes to pass, will likely lead to increases in winter wheat production in the northwestern part of China, not the decreases that climate alarmists routinely predict.»
But would you really have clicked
on an article advising that scientists have just published an analysis indicating that «Climate
change will reduce
crop yields sooner than we thought»?
The team used high - resolution weather pattern,
crop yield and hop quality data to gauge the impact of climate
change on the Saaz
crops between 1954 to 2006.