The top priorities should be reducing uncertainties in climate sensitivity, getting a better understanding of the effect of climate
change on atmospheric circulation (critical for understanding of regional climate change, changes in extremes) and reducing uncertainties in radiative forcing — particularly those associated with aerosols.
The impact of land cover
change on the atmospheric circulation.
Not exact matches
«But
on top of that,
changes in
atmospheric circulation can favor particular weather conditions associated with heat waves.»
Something that goes along with this
change in
atmospheric circulation is reduced sea ice in the region (while sea ice in Antarctica has been increasing
on average, there have been significant declines off the West Antarctic coast for the last 25 years, and probably longer).
To quantify the impact of human - induced climate
change on Harvey and to estimate whether it indeed exacerbated the rainfall thus requires taking into account the
atmospheric circulation as well as the overall warming.
The latter is not equivalent to climate
change not playing a role, because such results are obtained when the effect from a warmer atmosphere is in the opposite direction to the effect
on the
atmospheric circulation.
As the authors point out, even if the whole story comes down to precipitation
changes which favor ablation, the persistence of these conditions throughout the 20th century still might be an indirect effect of global warming, via the remote effect of sea surface temperature
on atmospheric circulation.
For example: could different oceanic
circulation rates
change the oceanic CO2 sink / source behaviour, or could different
atmospheric conditions
change the mixing rates of
atmospheric gases hence modify their affect
on the solar forcing?
Since El Nino also has an important impact
on the Asian Summer Monsoon in particular, its hard to know precisely what large - scale
changes in
atmospheric circulation are due to the radiative forcing of the eruption itself, and the secondary response to that eruption of ENSO.
Haarsma et al. (2015) argue
on the basis of model simulation that the weakening of the Gulf Stream system will in the future be the main cause of
changes in the
atmospheric summer
circulation over Europe.
The well - known impact of El Niño
on reducing Atlantic hurricane activity is in fact due to increased shear from the associated
atmospheric circulation changes.
1) It seems to me that the key mechanism for any impact must be the
changes that increased arctic ocean temperatures will impose
on the
atmospheric circulation feature known as the Polar Cell, and via this
on the Ferrel cell which sits over the mid latitudes.
To investigate the effects of CO2 emissions
on ocean pH, we forced the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ocean general -
circulation model (Fig. 1a) with the pressure of
atmospheric CO2 (pCO2) observed from 1975 to 2000, and with CO2 emissions from the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate
Change's IS92a scenario1 for 2000 — 2100.
Just found this
on a quick google: http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2009/2009GL037524.shtml Which refers to «non-annular
atmospheric circulation change» which seems to argue against what I said above.
On the other hand, satellite - observed
changes in absorbed sunlight and emitted heat in the tropics over the period 1985 - 2000, which appear to have caused a strengthening of the tropical
atmospheric circulation, could in principle be either anthropogenic or natural in origin.
«In 2007 a team of NASA and university scientists has detected an ongoing reversal in Arctic Ocean
circulation triggered by
atmospheric circulation changes that vary
on decade - long time scales.
This study has highlighted the role of internal variability of the NAO, the leading mode of
atmospheric circulation variability over the Atlantic / European sector,
on winter (December - March) surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (P) trends over the next 30 years (and the next 50 years: see Supplemental Materials) using a new 40 - member ensemble of climate
change simulations with CESM1.
«The authors write that North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV) «is a key component in predictability studies of both regional and global climate
change,»... they emphasize that given the links between both the PDO and the NPGO with global climate, the accurate characterization and the degree of predictability of these two modes in coupled climate models is an important «open question in climate dynamics» that needs to be addressed... report that model - derived «temporal and spatial statistics of the North Pacific Ocean modes exhibit significant discrepancies from observations in their twentieth - century climate... conclude that «for implications
on future climate
change, the coupled climate models show no consensus
on projected future
changes in frequency of either the first or second leading pattern of North Pacific SST anomalies,» and they say that «the lack of a consensus in
changes in either mode also affects confidence in projected
changes in the overlying
atmospheric circulation.»»
The main modulating influence
on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific appears to be the
changes in
atmospheric circulation associated with ENSO, rather than local SSTs (Liu and Chan, 2003; Chan and Liu, 2004).
This Section places particular emphasis
on current knowledge of past
changes in key climate variables: temperature, precipitation and
atmospheric moisture, snow cover, extent of land and sea ice, sea level, patterns in
atmospheric and oceanic
circulation, extreme weather and climate events, and overall features of the climate variability.
It is seen in regime
changes in cloud, ice, ocean and
atmospheric circulation, hydrology and biology that are evident in climate records and that are best described as shifts in state space
on the multi-dimensional climate strange attractor at 20 to 30 year intervals.
Damn that weak and insipid science that pretends that
changing ocean and
atmospheric circulations can have any impact
on climate at all.
«-- A team of NASA and university scientists has detected an ongoing reversal in Arctic Ocean
circulation triggered by
atmospheric circulation changes that vary
on decade - long time scales.
Changes in
atmospheric circulation could have a major effect
on tropospheric ozone.
States that other feedbacks likely to emerge are those in which key processes include surface fluxes of trace gases,
changes in the distribution of vegetation,
changes in surface soil moisture,
changes in
atmospheric water vapor arising from higher temperatures and greater areas of open ocean, impacts of Arctic freshwater fluxes
on the meridional overturning
circulation of the ocean, and
changes in Arctic clouds resulting from
changes in water vapor content
Some cooling
on the EAIS also appears to be connected with the ABS sea ice trends, likely through organized patterns of
atmospheric circulation changes.
Greenhouse gases have a cooling effect
on the stratosphere, and climate
change is likely to also alter
atmospheric transport and
circulation patterns.
CO2 has no chance of
changing total
atmospheric mass
on Earth significantly however much we produce so the only remaining question is as to how far our CO2 emissions could
change the
circulation pattern.
Whether the large - scale thermodynamic environment and
atmospheric static stability (often measured by Convective Available Potential Energy, CAPE) becomes more favourable for tropical storms depends
on how
changes in
atmospheric circulation, especially subsidence, affect the static stability of the atmosphere, and how the wind shear
changes.
And as the for the reason for this year's Arctic ice melt, NASA and university scientists have detected an ongoing reversal in Arctic Ocean
circulation triggered by
atmospheric circulation changes that varies
on decade - long time scales.
Thus an understanding of the mechanisms distributing water vapor through the atmosphere and of water vapor's effects
on atmospheric radiation and
circulation is vital to estimating long - term
changes in climate.
Identify the impacts of a
changing climate
on sea ice loss; sea ice loss
on patterns of
atmospheric circulation and precipitation; oceanic
circulation both within and beyond the Arctic, including the meridional overturning
circulation in the Atlantic Ocean; and weather patterns in middle latitudes.
While
on first thought this might seem undesirable because we are looking for a global number, it might make sense to separate them due to the large difference in land / ocean ratio and the fact that
atmospheric circulation patterns isolate them WRT shorter term
changes.
Even seemingly small
changes in global temperature have far - reaching effects
on sea level,
atmospheric circulation, and weather patterns around the globe.
However, with the new evidence that
changes in
atmospheric and thus oceanic
circulation may have obscured
changes in sea level (http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn12547-flatter-oceans-may-have-caused-1920s-sea-rise.html), is there any evidence that the previously apparently static sea levels caused groups to self - censor data
on ice sheet melting?
The focus
on Europe, aided by the increase in resolution, has revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those associated with
changing atmospheric circulation patterns.
Impact of sea ice cover
changes on the Northern Hemisphere
atmospheric winter
circulation — Jaiser et al (2012) doi: 10.3402 / tellusa.v64i0.11595
9) In many GCMs, there are large biases in
atmospheric circulation, and it seems probable that these biases will have major impacts
on the ability of these models to accurately predict
changes in sea ice.
1) Abstract «Such
changes could have significant ramifications for global sea level, the ocean thermohaline
circulation, native coastal communities, and commercial activities, as well as effects
on the global surface energy and moisture budgets,
atmospheric and oceanic
circulations, and geosphere - biosphere feedbacks.
Rather than focusing
on temperature gradients, which are often a consequence rather than cause of the
circulation, one should investigate the conditions when condensation is likely to occur to predict
changes in
atmospheric circulation.
Their influence
on the
atmospheric circulation is focused
on the polar regions by the Earth's magnetic field [the opposite phase of the
changes in the Arctic and the Antarctic can be explained by the phenomenon of «solar system dissymmetry» as a result of which fluctuations of solar constant occur].
10 - 14 June 2013: CFMIP / EUCLIPSE Meeting
on Cloud Processes and Climate Feedback, Hamburg, GERMANY Focus: Clouds and precipitation in a
changing climate; Coupling between cloud processes and the
atmospheric circulation; Ability of models to simulate cloud processes, and the impact of errors
on model predictive capabilities
Jaiser, R., Dethloff, K., Handorf, D., Rinke, A. & Cohen, J. Impact of sea ice cover
changes on the Northern Hemisphere
atmospheric winter
circulation.
Its current dust output is essentially transport - limited, but with expected
changes in future
atmospheric circulation in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations,
changes to deflation in the Bodélé may impose critical
changes on the behavior of the Earth system in response to the role that dust plays in the biosphere and the sheer quantity emitted from this key region.
Other proposed mechanisms confine the Arctic's influence
on large - scale
circulation changes to the troposphere, in which a warmer Arctic favors a wavier flow and more persistent
atmospheric blocking, which often spawns extreme weather events58, 59.