Full text here: Contribution of
changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends.
Regarding the hydrologic cycle, multiple factors operate, including important
changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, as Chris Colose mentioned.
The current California drought is bad because for the first time ever, scientists from many different fields see parallel lines of evidence for the influence of human - induced climate changes, including the fingerprints of higher temperatures and
changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns.
These aspects of precipitation generally exhibit large natural variability, and El Niño and
changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation have a substantial influence.
As I have also noted in recent public comments, additional mechanisms have been identified by which
changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that may be a result of global warming could be affecting droughts in the American West.
Not exact matches
Lyon thinks this
change in temperatures has altered
atmospheric circulation patterns, cutting off the supply of moisture to east Africa (Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029 / 2011GL050337).
World weather
patterns will also start to
change, as a frigid Antarctic continent and the icy ocean currents that surround it play an important role
in global
atmospheric and oceanic
circulation.
The researchers warn, however, that the future evolution of the AMO remains uncertain, with many factors potentially affecting how it interacts with
atmospheric circulation patterns, such as Arctic sea ice loss,
changes in solar radiation, volcanic eruptions and concentrations of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere.
As discussed
in the Climate chapter, large - scale
atmospheric circulation patterns connected to
changes in sea - surface temperatures strongly influence natural variations
in precipitation and temperature (e.g., Cayan et al. 1999; Mantua and Hare 2002).
Natural factors contributing to past climate
change are well documented and include
changes in atmospheric chemistry, ocean
circulation patterns, solar radiation intensity, snow and ice cover, Earth's orbital cycle around the sun, continental position, and volcanic eruptions.
Resulting
changes in the
atmospheric temperature structure, including from surface dimming,
in turn affect regional
circulation and precipitation
patterns.
The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate
change: sea level
change; alterations
in precipitation
patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations
in circulation patterns;
changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of
atmospheric CO2.
Would somebody here, like to explain to me how we can lose Arctic Sea ice (
in part or
in whole) without
changing the
atmospheric circulation patterns?
However, if the loss of Arctic Sea ice has significantly
changed global
atmospheric circulation patterns, then we are dealing with a different system that has only been
in existence since 2007, and we do not know how often to expect crop failures.
How do the complex feedbacks
change atmospheric circulation patterns, and the interaction of these
patterns to
changes in ice cap topography (e.g. at the LGM)?
And given the fact that land warms more quickly than ocean, resulting
in areas of low pressure over land,
changing patterns of
atmospheric and oceanic
circulation are bringing them to the coasts — where so much life's diversity is found.
All climate models tell us that it is the Arctic sea ice cover that declines first, and that Antarctic ice extent falls only later, and may even (as observed) temporarily increase
in response to
changing patterns of
atmospheric circulation.
Its findings suggest that
changing storm
patterns and the ensuing droughts are due to a southern shift
in the Hadley cell, the large - scale
pattern of
atmospheric circulation that transports heat from the tropics to the subtropics.
That, combined with the
change in location of the convection, cause drastic
changes in global
atmospheric circulation patterns.
Diminishing Arctic sea ice can cause
changes in atmospheric circulation that lead to a
circulation pattern that is different than the «negative phase» of the Arctic Oscillation.
I will now analyse how the system could work and show that composition
changes not involving
changes in mass only affect
atmospheric volume and
circulation patterns and not surface temperature.
Yet, we explained there is also reasonable basis for concern that a warming world may at least temporarily increase tornado damage including the fact that oceans are now warmer, and regional ocean
circulation cycles such as La Nina / El Nino
patterns in the Pacific which affect upper
atmospheric conditions appear to becoming more chaotic under the influence of climate
change.
Francis, who wasn't involved with either study, is one of the main proponents of an idea that by altering how much heat the ocean lets out, sea ice melt and Arctic warming can also
change atmospheric circulation patterns,
in particular by making the jet stream form larger peaks, or highs, and troughs, or lows.
But matters are greatly complicated by
atmospheric circulation patterns, cyclic
changes in temperatures over the oceans, and the shapes of land masses.
A shift
in atmospheric circulation in response to
changes in solar activity is broadly consistent with
atmospheric circulation patterns in long - term climate model simulations, and
in reanalysis data that assimilate observations from recent solar minima into a climate model.
One recent study suggests that climate
change favors an SST
pattern in the North Pacific that increases the incidence of the
atmospheric circulation pattern responsible for the current drought.
«The authors write that North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV) «is a key component
in predictability studies of both regional and global climate
change,»... they emphasize that given the links between both the PDO and the NPGO with global climate, the accurate characterization and the degree of predictability of these two modes
in coupled climate models is an important «open question
in climate dynamics» that needs to be addressed... report that model - derived «temporal and spatial statistics of the North Pacific Ocean modes exhibit significant discrepancies from observations
in their twentieth - century climate... conclude that «for implications on future climate
change, the coupled climate models show no consensus on projected future
changes in frequency of either the first or second leading
pattern of North Pacific SST anomalies,» and they say that «the lack of a consensus
in changes in either mode also affects confidence
in projected
changes in the overlying
atmospheric circulation.»»
The large interannual to decadal hydroclimatic variability
in winter precipitation is highly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies
in the tropical Pacific Ocean and associated
changes in large - scale
atmospheric circulation patterns [16].
This Section places particular emphasis on current knowledge of past
changes in key climate variables: temperature, precipitation and
atmospheric moisture, snow cover, extent of land and sea ice, sea level,
patterns in atmospheric and oceanic
circulation, extreme weather and climate events, and overall features of the climate variability.
This
change also shifts global
atmospheric circulation patterns, causing rises
in surface temperatures outside of the tropical Pacific.
One last point related to my last post, is the extent / degree of magnitude of a more meridional
atmospheric circulation pattern (N.H. especially) could influence snow cover, cloud cover, and precipitation amounts which could set up stronger positive climatic feedbacks, which could then result
in an even more significant climatic
change going forward.
One important feature that plays a role
in these variations is the periodic
change of
atmospheric and oceanic
circulation patterns in the tropical Pacific region, collectively known as El Niño — Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variation»
Identifies
changes in occurrence of
atmospheric circulation patterns by measuring the similarity of the cool - season
atmospheric configuration that occurred
in each year of the 1949 — 2015 period with the configuration that occurred during each of the five driest, wettest, warmest, and coolest years
This report discusses our current understanding of the mechanisms that link declines
in Arctic sea ice cover, loss of high - latitude snow cover,
changes in Arctic - region energy fluxes,
atmospheric circulation patterns, and the occurrence of extreme weather events; possible implications of more severe loss of summer Arctic sea ice upon weather
patterns at lower latitudes; major gaps
in our understanding, and observational and / or modeling efforts that are needed to fill those gaps; and current opportunities and limitations for using Arctic sea ice predictions to assess the risk of temperature / precipitation anomalies and extreme weather events over northern continents.
The most likely candidate for that climatic variable force that comes to mind is solar variability (because I can think of no other force that can
change or reverse
in a different trend often enough, and quick enough to account for the historical climatic record) and the primary and secondary effects associated with this solar variability which I feel are a significant player
in glacial / inter-glacial cycles, counter climatic trends when taken into consideration with these factors which are, land / ocean arrangements, mean land elevation, mean magnetic field strength of the earth (magnetic excursions), the mean state of the climate (average global temperature), the initial state of the earth's climate (how close to interglacial - glacial threshold condition it is) the state of random terrestrial (violent volcanic eruption, or a random
atmospheric circulation / oceanic
pattern that feeds upon itself possibly) / extra terrestrial events (super-nova
in vicinity of earth or a random impact) along with Milankovitch Cycles.
The seasonal climate may relate to
changes in the ocean
circulation pattern prior to 4.6 Ma that resulted
in an increased temperature and
atmospheric pressure gradient between the east coast of North America and the Atlantic Ocean, but this climate phase seems to be only a temporary condition, as underlying and overlying sediment are both consistent with drier conditions.
Abrupt climate
change due to variations
in the
atmospheric circulation and its attendant
patterns of climate variability can arise through two principal mechanisms: (1) through abrupt
changes in the time - dependent behavior of the
circulation; or (2) through slowly evolving
changes in the
circulation that project onto large horizontal gradients
in surface weather.
Arctic ice melt itself is expected to lead to a
change in polar
atmospheric circulation patterns, which will likely produce a shift
in seasonal climate
patterns.
In both the tropics and extratropics, it is difficult to discern significant long - term trends in the patterns of climate variability from natural variability, never mind abrupt (threshold) changes in the atmospheric circulatio
In both the tropics and extratropics, it is difficult to discern significant long - term trends
in the patterns of climate variability from natural variability, never mind abrupt (threshold) changes in the atmospheric circulatio
in the
patterns of climate variability from natural variability, never mind abrupt (threshold)
changes in the atmospheric circulatio
in the
atmospheric circulation.
Identify the impacts of a
changing climate on sea ice loss; sea ice loss on
patterns of
atmospheric circulation and precipitation; oceanic
circulation both within and beyond the Arctic, including the meridional overturning
circulation in the Atlantic Ocean; and weather
patterns in middle latitudes.
Climate models disagree
in pattern and magnitude of projected
changes in atmospheric circulation and climate variability, particularly for precipitation (e.g., with respect to the Indian and West African monsoons).
In addition, human - induced climate
change may alter
atmospheric circulation, dislocating historical
patterns of natural variability and storminess.
There is growing observational data, physical analysis of possible mechanisms, and model agreement that human - caused climate
change is strengthening
atmospheric circulation patterns in a way «which implies that the periodic and inevitable droughts California will experience will exhibit more severity...» «there is a traceable anthropogenic warming footprint
in the enormous intensity of the anomalous ridge during winter 2013 — 2014 and the associated drought.»
While on first thought this might seem undesirable because we are looking for a global number, it might make sense to separate them due to the large difference
in land / ocean ratio and the fact that
atmospheric circulation patterns isolate them WRT shorter term
changes.
Even seemingly small
changes in global temperature have far - reaching effects on sea level,
atmospheric circulation, and weather
patterns around the globe.
Variations
in ocean
circulation speeds account for significant instances of climate
change,
changing the hydrological cycle and altering
atmospheric circulation patterns as well.
The focus on Europe, aided by the increase
in resolution, has revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those associated with
changing atmospheric circulation patterns.
Regional
patterns of sea surface temperature
change: a source of uncertainty
in future projections of precipitation and
atmospheric circulation.
The Barbados annual dust cycle is linked to the cycle of dust activity
in North Africa and to seasonal
changes in large - scale
atmospheric circulation patterns.