In short, the «skeptic» hypothesis that
changes in cloud cover due to internal variability are driving global warming does not hold up when compared to the observational data.
Not exact matches
A new analysis using
changes in cloud cover over the tropical Indo - Pacific Ocean showed that a weakening of a major atmospheric circulation system over the last century is
due,
in part, to increased greenhouse gas emissions.
Of course, there may be a
change in AO index
due to GHGs, maybe even as good as the influence of solar on the AO... Remains to be seen what will happen with temperatures and
cloud cover if the AO index
changes.
«we estimate that less than 23 %, at the 95 % confidence level, of the 11 - year cycle
changes in the globally averaged
cloud cover observed
in solar cycle 22 is
due to the
change in the rate of ionization from the solar modulation of cosmic rays.»
While on the subject: Could I ask your take on Erlykin et al. 2011,
in particular their finding that any effect of cosmic radiation is limited to 1 % of
cloud cover, and their estimate that any temperature increase
due to such a mechanism over the past 50 years of barely
changing CR is limited to 0.002 °C?
Of course, there may be a
change in AO index
due to GHGs, maybe even as good as the influence of solar on the AO... Remains to be seen what will happen with temperatures and
cloud cover if the AO index
changes.
According to Chen ea., the difference is not
due to
changes in clear sky radiation (too small, which may point to small differences
in water vapour column), but
in cloud cover.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air /
clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically
in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming
due to an increase
in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive,
clouds, though regional
changes in water vapor and
clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released
in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow
cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight
in the winter would not be so delayed).
The
changes in climate are
due to the activity of the sun and variations
in cloud cover.
In attempting to substantiate this internal variability hypothesis, Spencer & Braswell (2011) assumed that the change in top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy flux due to cloud cover changes from 2000 to 2010 was twice as large as the heating of the climate system through ocean circulatio
In attempting to substantiate this internal variability hypothesis, Spencer & Braswell (2011) assumed that the
change in top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy flux due to cloud cover changes from 2000 to 2010 was twice as large as the heating of the climate system through ocean circulatio
in top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy flux
due to
cloud cover changes from 2000 to 2010 was twice as large as the heating of the climate system through ocean circulation.
Ron de Haan (17:51:50): The
changes in climate are
due to the activity of the sun and variations
in cloud cover.
Lindzen and Choi plot a time regression of
change in TOA energy flux
due to
cloud cover changes vs. sea surface temperature
changes.
Leif, «Ron de Haan (17:51:50): The
changes in climate are
due to the activity of the sun and variations
in cloud cover.
This can be affected by warming temperatures, but also by
changes in snowfall, increases in solar radiation absorption due to a decrease in cloud cover, and increases in the water vapor content of air near the earth's surface.2, 14,15,16,17 In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline in cloud cover and precipitation.
in snowfall, increases
in solar radiation absorption due to a decrease in cloud cover, and increases in the water vapor content of air near the earth's surface.2, 14,15,16,17 In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline in cloud cover and precipitation.
in solar radiation absorption
due to a decrease
in cloud cover, and increases in the water vapor content of air near the earth's surface.2, 14,15,16,17 In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline in cloud cover and precipitation.
in cloud cover, and increases
in the water vapor content of air near the earth's surface.2, 14,15,16,17 In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline in cloud cover and precipitation.
in the water vapor content of air near the earth's surface.2, 14,15,16,17
In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline in cloud cover and precipitation.
In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline
in cloud cover and precipitation.
in cloud cover and precipitation.18
The Earth's albedo
changes primarily
due to
cloud cover and perhaps other particulates
in the atmosphere.
Spencer & Braswell (2011) assumed that the
change in top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy flux
due to
cloud cover changes from 2000 to 2010 was twice as large as the heating of the climate system through ocean circulation.
As Roy Spencer points out, it doesn't take much of a
change in cloud cover to account for global warming
due to increased insolation * at the ocean surface *.
Dessler (2011) used observational data (such as surface temperature measurements and ARGO ocean temperature) to estimate and corroborate these values, and found that the heating of the climate system through ocean heat transport was 20 times larger than TOA energy flux
changes due to
cloud cover over the period
in question.
In short, Dessler argues that
cloud cover change is a feedback to a radiative forcing, for example increasing greenhouse gases, while Spencer argues that
clouds are
changing due to some other, unknown cause, and acting as a forcing themselves.
You have not cited a third possibility (out of the infinite range of possibilities), no climate
change associated with CO2 (
due to, for example,
cloud cover providing negative feedback), with current increase
due to natural variability; or how about possibility four, that increase
in CO2 concentrations are caused by the temperature rise, which is
in turn caused by (for example) increased solar activity resulting
in increased biomass activity etc. etc..
This polar amplification is thought to be
due largely to
changes in sea ice, with some contributions from
changes in snow
cover, atmospheric and ocean circulation,
cloud cover and the presence of soot.
The IPCC acknowledges three potential drivers of climate
change: (1)
changes in incoming solar radiation (e.g.
due to
changes in the Earth's orbit or the Sun); (2)
changes in reflected solar radiation (e.g.
due to
changes in low - level
cloud cover); and (3)
changes in outgoing longwave radiation (e.g.
due to
changes in greenhouse gas concentrations).
This is
due to the difficulty
in distinguishing a cold, bright object (i.e., a
cloud) from an ice or snow
covered surface: as a result of these difficulties ISCCP has been noted to mistake temperature
changes for
cloud changes at high latitudes (Rossow & Schiffer 1999; Laken & Pallé 2012).
On top of that there are year to year fluctuation
due to short term
changes in humidity,
cloud cover, surface temperature and
change in temperature distribution which can be ignored for this discussion.
Moreover, a more careful look at the
changes of ISCCP
clouds by
cloud type shows that the increase
in total
cloud cover from 2000 to 2004 is
due to a small increases
in high - level
clouds and a larger increase
in middle - level
clouds that are mostly thermally neutral and therefore could not cause warming (see figures, data).
Changes in suitable plant growing days
due to the interaction between solar radiation and soil moisture were minimal -LRB--2 %, 0 %, and 2 % under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively; dashed purple lines
in Fig 3), although there was considerable spatial variability (Fig 2E)
due to the coupling between rainfall and
cloud cover.
It is logical to presume that
changes in Earth's albedo are
due to increases and decreases
in low
cloud cover, which
in turn is related to the climate
change that we have observed during the 20th Century, including the present global cooling.
This might cause
changes in cloud cover,
due to consequent reductions
in relative humidity, so you have to stop those too because they are a feedback.
There are other problems with Norris (2004), such as the comparison of reconstructed
cloud cover to trends from ISCCP, which according to Evan et al. (2007), are more likely
due to a satellite viewing geometry artifact rather than physical
changes in the atmosphere.