Sentences with phrase «changes in global temperature trend»

My Hot Water Bottle Effect shows how any apparently minor changes in solar activity can be supplemented or offset to match the observed changes in global temperature trend during the latter half of the 20th Century.

Indeed on the basis of my previous article about weather being the key it may be possible to get even earlier warning of changes in global temperature trend from observation of the preferred positions of the jet streams and the main high pressure systems.

f) That models which are abject failures in predicting changes in global temperature trend should be used to inform policy decisions up to 100 years hence.

There are associated changes in global temperature trends and in global hydrology and biology.

Starting with first principles it does seem likely that something as significant as a change in global temperature TREND really ought to be discernible somehow on a day to day basis.

We should be able to predict changes in global temperature trends from the net latitudinal position of all the air circulation systems and regional climate changes follow from those latitudinal shifts.

As Tamino and others regularly point out, a 10 year span is too short to report confidently on any change in the global temperature trend.

Not exact matches

However, solar variability alone can not explain the post-1970 global temperature trends, especially the global temperature rise in the last three decades of the 20th Century, which has been attributed by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.»

Researchers in California say climate change could spur an increase in global violence by as much as 50 percent over the next forty years if current temperature trends continue.

Just as the underlying change in sea level is swamped by the daily and monthly changes, so the annual variation in global temperature masks any underlying trends.

The findings show a slight but notable increase in that average temperature, putting a dent in the idea that global warming has slowed over the past 15 years, a trend highlighted in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.

For the globe, ranks of individual years changed in some instances by a few positions, but global temperature trends changed no more than 0.01 °C / century for any month since 1880.

For the globe, ranks of individual years changed in some instances by a few positions, but global land temperature trends changed no more than 0.01 °C / century for any month since 1880.

To remove this difference in magnitude and focus instead on the patterns of change, the authors scaled the vertical profiles of ocean temperature (area - weighted with respect to each vertical ocean layer) with the global surface air temperature trend of each period.

Global climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, showing temperature and precipitation trends for two different future scenarios, as described in the Climate chapter of this assessment (IPCC 2014a).

Human induced trend has two components, namely (a) greenhouse effect [this includes global and local / regional component] and (b) non-greenhouse effect [local / regional component]-- according to IPCC (a) is more than half of global average temperature anomaly wherein it also includes component of volcanic activities, etc that comes under greenhouse effect; and (b) contribution is less than half — ecological changes component but this is biased positive side by urban - heat - island effect component as the met network are concentrated in urban areas and rural - cold - island effect is biased negative side as the met stations are sparsely distributed though rural area is more than double to urban area.

First, it provides a compilation of global trends in glacier terminus positions since 1600 A.D. Second, it uses this compilation to create a new estimate of global temperature change.

The adjustments are unlikely to significantly affect estimates of century - long trends in global - mean temperatures, as the data before, 1940 and after the mid-1960s are not expected to require further corrections for changes from uninsulated bucket to engine room intake measurements.

For instance, in your scenario of a 20 - yr temperature change of 0.3 ºC + / - 0.18 ºC, assuming a natural noise level (observed standard deviation of detrended annual global temperatures from 1977 - 2004) of 0.085 ºC, a statistically significant difference in the trend that leads to the lowest end of your range (a change of 0.12 ºC) and the trend that leads to the highest end of your range (0.48 ºC) doesn't begin to rise above the level of noise until around year 16 or 17.

Measured changes in global temperature show ups and downs, with some periods of a decade or more defying the long - term trend.

The climate system appears to have had three distinct «episodes» during the 20th century (during the 1910's, 1940's, and 1970's), and all three marked shifts in the trend of the global mean temperature, along with changes in the qualitative character of ENSO variability.

The Associated Press has put out an interesting interactive mapof climate change data, including the emission trends from countries in the northern hemisphere, graphs of the various indicators of global warming such as glacier melts and global temperatures, and the pledges that different countries have made when it comes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

As Hansen indeed only used rural stations for his global temperature trend outside the USA, I need to change the challenge: find out the station density of rural stations in the GISS database for the tropics (20N - 20S or 30N - 30S) where in the 1979 - 2005 period the data show some reliability... Good luck with that!

Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).

So, to conclude, if you think that future «global warming» is tied to the underlying long term trend in surface temperatures, there is no evidence from HadCRUT4 to warrant changing expectations (and no physical reasons to either).

While the anomalous nature of recent trends in global average temperature is often highlighted in discussions of climate change, changes at regional scales have potentially greater societal significance.

«research must continue to find and establish the real causes and the true trends in global temperature change that may be present behind the natural fluctuations.»

Anthropogenic global warming (AGW), a recent warming of the Earth's lower atmosphere as evidenced by the global mean temperature anomaly trend [11], is BELIEVED to be the result of an «enhanced greenhouse effect» mainly due to human - produced increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [12] and changes in the use of land [13].

Their work is a big step forward in helping to solve the greatest puzzle of current climate change research — why global average surface temperatures, while still on an upward trend, have risen more slowly in the past 10 to fifteen years than previously.

In my earlier posting, I tried to make the distinction that global climate change (all that is changing in the climate system) can be separated into: (1) the global warming component that is driven primarily by the increase in greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of temperature fluctuations about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trenIn my earlier posting, I tried to make the distinction that global climate change (all that is changing in the climate system) can be separated into: (1) the global warming component that is driven primarily by the increase in greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of temperature fluctuations about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trenin the climate system) can be separated into: (1) the global warming component that is driven primarily by the increase in greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of temperature fluctuations about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trenin greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of temperature fluctuations about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trend.

And even if the current 18 - year trend were to end, it would still take nearly 25 years for average global temperature figures to reflect the change, said Michaels, who has a Ph.D. in ecological climatology and spent three decades as a research professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia.

Although short term trends can be misleading, like the 22 year run up from 1976 to 1998, the dramatic drop of global average temperature in 2008 may be indicative of a change in character of the climate.

This is because, from the discussion above, we would expect to see sea level changes, since global temperatures do seem to have changed over the last century (whether the temperature trends are man - made or natural in origin).

In our «Global temperature changes of the last millennium» paper, we reviewed these estimates, discussed the assumptions and approximations they made, and attempted to assess what they tell us about the global temperature trends of the last milleGlobal temperature changes of the last millennium» paper, we reviewed these estimates, discussed the assumptions and approximations they made, and attempted to assess what they tell us about the global temperature trends of the last milleglobal temperature trends of the last millennium.

In several of our papers on global temperature trends, we used datasets of weather station records to look at how global temperatures have changed since the late - 19th century.

The long - term trend of TSI is most probably caused by a global temperature change of the Sun that does not influence the UV irradiance in the same way as the surface magnetic fields.

At the very least, proponents of continuing global warming and climate change would perhaps be wise not to make the recent warming trend in recorded temperatures a central plank in their argument.»

Surface warming / ocean warming: «A reassessment of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends»

The people in charge of the surface stations and the data adjusters don't seem to understand that from a perspective of the climate history having any real utility in indicating a «global temperature trend» their sensors need to report the same values regardless of a change in technology.

Surface warming: «Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends» «Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend» «On the definition and identifiability of the alleged «hiatus» in global warming» «Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset&Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends» «Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend» «On the definition and identifiability of the alleged «hiatus» in global warming» «Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset&global warming trend» «On the definition and identifiability of the alleged «hiatus» in global warming» «Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset&global warming» «Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset&Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset»

«On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO» «Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures»

«Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «A reassessment of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets» «Deducing Multidecadal Anthropogenic Global Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «Early onset of industrial - era warming across the oceans and continents&global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «A reassessment of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets» «Deducing Multidecadal Anthropogenic Global Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «Early onset of industrial - era warming across the oceans and continents&global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets» «Deducing Multidecadal Anthropogenic Global Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «Early onset of industrial - era warming across the oceans and continents&Global Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «Early onset of industrial - era warming across the oceans and continents»

They clearly have not «proved» skill at predicting in a hindcast mode, changes in climate statistics on the regional scale, and even in terms of the global average surface temperature trend, in recent years they have overstated the positive trend.

Over the last decade or so, the models have not shown an ability to predict the lack (or very muted) change in the annual average global surface temperature trend.

I'm inclined to think that Ocean Heat Content, trends in land ice and Sea levels are more appropriate indicators of global climate change than surface air temperatures, but that's another issue.

Changes in global surface temperature between 1900 and 2003 associated with the long - term global warming trend in two different datasets, GISTEMP and ERSST.

In particular, given that there has been no trend in the sunspot count or cosmic ray flux over the last 50 years [1], while the global temperature has increased by 0.5 - 0.6 °C [2], how can one seriously claim that your work shows solar activity to be the major driver of climate change today and over the last 50 yearIn particular, given that there has been no trend in the sunspot count or cosmic ray flux over the last 50 years [1], while the global temperature has increased by 0.5 - 0.6 °C [2], how can one seriously claim that your work shows solar activity to be the major driver of climate change today and over the last 50 yearin the sunspot count or cosmic ray flux over the last 50 years [1], while the global temperature has increased by 0.5 - 0.6 °C [2], how can one seriously claim that your work shows solar activity to be the major driver of climate change today and over the last 50 years?

The NAO's prominent upward trend from the 1950s to the 1990s caused large regional changes in air temperature, precipitation, wind and storminess, with accompanying impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and contributed to the accelerated rise in global mean surface temperature (e.g., Hurrell 1996; Ottersen et al. 2001; Thompson et al. 2000; Visbeck et al. 2003; Stenseth et al. 2003).

To date, while various effects and feedbacks constrain the certainty placed on recent and projected climate change (EG, albedo change, the response of water vapour, various future emissions scenarios etc), it is virtually certain that CO2 increases from human industry have reversed and will continue to reverse the downward trend in global temperatures that should be expected in the current phase of the Milankovitch cycle.

This places recent global warming trends in the context of temperature changes over longer time scales.