Gold appears to be more sensitive to
changes in interest rate policy than silver.
Also, to ensure that
the changes in interest rate policy is effectively transmitted to the bank customers.
They seem to be hyper - sensitive about signaling
changes in interest rate policy, but they seem to not care about the ambiguity and contradictions in the reporting on the actual metrics that they use to determine whether to change the policy or not.
It's countdown time to the important meeting of the Federal Reserve and investors are anxious about
a change in interest rate policy.
Not exact matches
Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected
in such forward - looking statements and that should be considered
in evaluating our outlook include, but are not limited to, the following: 1) our ability to continue to grow our business and execute our growth strategy, including the timing, execution, and profitability of new and maturing programs; 2) our ability to perform our obligations under our new and maturing commercial, business aircraft, and military development programs, and the related recurring production; 3) our ability to accurately estimate and manage performance, cost, and revenue under our contracts, including our ability to achieve certain cost reductions with respect to the B787 program; 4) margin pressures and the potential for additional forward losses on new and maturing programs; 5) our ability to accommodate, and the cost of accommodating, announced increases
in the build
rates of certain aircraft; 6) the effect on aircraft demand and build
rates of
changing customer preferences for business aircraft, including the effect of global economic conditions on the business aircraft market and expanding conflicts or political unrest
in the Middle East or Asia; 7) customer cancellations or deferrals as a result of global economic uncertainty or otherwise; 8) the effect of economic conditions
in the industries and markets
in which we operate
in the U.S. and globally and any
changes therein, including fluctuations
in foreign currency exchange
rates; 9) the success and timely execution of key milestones such as the receipt of necessary regulatory approvals, including our ability to obtain
in a timely fashion any required regulatory or other third party approvals for the consummation of our announced acquisition of Asco, and customer adherence to their announced schedules; 10) our ability to successfully negotiate, or re-negotiate, future pricing under our supply agreements with Boeing and our other customers; 11) our ability to enter into profitable supply arrangements with additional customers; 12) the ability of all parties to satisfy their performance requirements under existing supply contracts with our two major customers, Boeing and Airbus, and other customers, and the risk of nonpayment by such customers; 13) any adverse impact on Boeing's and Airbus» production of aircraft resulting from cancellations, deferrals, or reduced orders by their customers or from labor disputes, domestic or international hostilities, or acts of terrorism; 14) any adverse impact on the demand for air travel or our operations from the outbreak of diseases or epidemic or pandemic outbreaks; 15) our ability to avoid or recover from cyber-based or other security attacks, information technology failures, or other disruptions; 16) returns on pension plan assets and the impact of future discount
rate changes on pension obligations; 17) our ability to borrow additional funds or refinance debt, including our ability to obtain the debt to finance the purchase price for our announced acquisition of Asco on favorable terms or at all; 18) competition from commercial aerospace original equipment manufacturers and other aerostructures suppliers; 19) the effect of governmental laws, such as U.S. export control laws and U.S. and foreign anti-bribery laws such as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the United Kingdom Bribery Act, and environmental laws and agency regulations, both
in the U.S. and abroad; 20) the effect of
changes in tax law, such as the effect of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the «TCJA») that was enacted on December 22, 2017, and
changes to the interpretations of or guidance related thereto, and the Company's ability to accurately calculate and estimate the effect of such
changes; 21) any reduction
in our credit
ratings; 22) our dependence on our suppliers, as well as the cost and availability of raw materials and purchased components; 23) our ability to recruit and retain a critical mass of highly - skilled employees and our relationships with the unions representing many of our employees; 24) spending by the U.S. and other governments on defense; 25) the possibility that our cash flows and our credit facility may not be adequate for our additional capital needs or for payment of
interest on, and principal of, our indebtedness; 26) our exposure under our revolving credit facility to higher
interest payments should
interest rates increase substantially; 27) the effectiveness of any
interest rate hedging programs; 28) the effectiveness of our internal control over financial reporting; 29) the outcome or impact of ongoing or future litigation, claims, and regulatory actions; 30) exposure to potential product liability and warranty claims; 31) our ability to effectively assess, manage and integrate acquisitions that we pursue, including our ability to successfully integrate the Asco business and generate synergies and other cost savings; 32) our ability to consummate our announced acquisition of Asco
in a timely matter while avoiding any unexpected costs, charges, expenses, adverse
changes to business relationships and other business disruptions for ourselves and Asco as a result of the acquisition; 33) our ability to continue selling certain receivables through our supplier financing program; 34) the risks of doing business internationally, including fluctuations
in foreign current exchange
rates, impositions of tariffs or embargoes, compliance with foreign laws, and domestic and foreign government
policies; and 35) our ability to complete the proposed accelerated stock repurchase plan, among other things.
The 30 - day Fed Fund futures can be used as a guide to predict when the Fed might increase
interest rates since the prices are an expression of trader's views on the likelihood of
changes in U.S. monetary
policy.
Regulating the money supply through
changes in interest rates — i.e. monetary
policy — would be much more direct, which could mean it's more effective and cost - efficient.
Such risks, uncertainties and other factors include, without limitation: (1) the effect of economic conditions
in the industries and markets
in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate
in the U.S. and globally and any
changes therein, including financial market conditions, fluctuations
in commodity prices,
interest rates and foreign currency exchange
rates, levels of end market demand
in construction and
in both the commercial and defense segments of the aerospace industry, levels of air travel, financial condition of commercial airlines, the impact of weather conditions and natural disasters and the financial condition of our customers and suppliers; (2) challenges
in the development, production, delivery, support, performance and realization of the anticipated benefits of advanced technologies and new products and services; (3) the scope, nature, impact or timing of acquisition and divestiture or restructuring activity, including the pending acquisition of Rockwell Collins, including among other things integration of acquired businesses into United Technologies» existing businesses and realization of synergies and opportunities for growth and innovation; (4) future timing and levels of indebtedness, including indebtedness expected to be incurred by United Technologies
in connection with the pending Rockwell Collins acquisition, and capital spending and research and development spending, including
in connection with the pending Rockwell Collins acquisition; (5) future availability of credit and factors that may affect such availability, including credit market conditions and our capital structure; (6) the timing and scope of future repurchases of United Technologies» common stock, which may be suspended at any time due to various factors, including market conditions and the level of other investing activities and uses of cash, including
in connection with the proposed acquisition of Rockwell; (7) delays and disruption
in delivery of materials and services from suppliers; (8) company and customer - directed cost reduction efforts and restructuring costs and savings and other consequences thereof; (9) new business and investment opportunities; (10) our ability to realize the intended benefits of organizational
changes; (11) the anticipated benefits of diversification and balance of operations across product lines, regions and industries; (12) the outcome of legal proceedings, investigations and other contingencies; (13) pension plan assumptions and future contributions; (14) the impact of the negotiation of collective bargaining agreements and labor disputes; (15) the effect of
changes in political conditions
in the U.S. and other countries
in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate, including the effect of
changes in U.S. trade
policies or the U.K.'s pending withdrawal from the EU, on general market conditions, global trade
policies and currency exchange
rates in the near term and beyond; (16) the effect of
changes in tax (including U.S. tax reform enacted on December 22, 2017, which is commonly referred to as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017), environmental, regulatory (including among other things import / export) and other laws and regulations
in the U.S. and other countries
in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate; (17) the ability of United Technologies and Rockwell Collins to receive the required regulatory approvals (and the risk that such approvals may result
in the imposition of conditions that could adversely affect the combined company or the expected benefits of the merger) and to satisfy the other conditions to the closing of the pending acquisition on a timely basis or at all; (18) the occurrence of events that may give rise to a right of one or both of United Technologies or Rockwell Collins to terminate the merger agreement, including
in circumstances that might require Rockwell Collins to pay a termination fee of $ 695 million to United Technologies or $ 50 million of expense reimbursement; (19) negative effects of the announcement or the completion of the merger on the market price of United Technologies» and / or Rockwell Collins» common stock and / or on their respective financial performance; (20) risks related to Rockwell Collins and United Technologies being restricted
in their operation of their businesses while the merger agreement is
in effect; (21) risks relating to the value of the United Technologies» shares to be issued
in connection with the pending Rockwell acquisition, significant merger costs and / or unknown liabilities; (22) risks associated with third party contracts containing consent and / or other provisions that may be triggered by the Rockwell merger agreement; (23) risks associated with merger - related litigation or appraisal proceedings; and (24) the ability of United Technologies and Rockwell Collins, or the combined company, to retain and hire key personnel.
This data shouldn't
change the Fed's
interest -
rate strategy, as a rising labor force participation
rate will put a lid on inflation regardless of how it's done, but it should lower our confidence that the Fed can solve the problem of a bifurcated workforce,
in which a large chunk of workers are getting left behind, simply through
interest rate policy.
In November 2000, the Bank introduced a system of eight fixed dates each year on which it announces whether or not it will
change the
policy interest rate.
In November 2000, the Bank of Canada introduced a new system of eight «fixed» or pre-specified dates each year for announcing any
changes to the official
interest rate it uses to implement monetary
policy.
After all, when a central bank influences the cost of financing through
changes in the
policy interest rate, its actions affect the economy by
changing asset prices, encouraging or discouraging risk taking, and influencing credit flows.
Indeed,
in a classic paper written
in the early 1960s, Mundell (Mundell, 1963) showed how,
in a world of complete asset substitutability and perfect capital mobility, real
interest rates would be largely determined by international market forces with the exchange
rate moving
in response to
changes in domestic monetary
policy to provide most of the desired accommodation or tightening.
The Federal Reserve has lowered short - term
interest rates by 100 basis points
in a month — an action they describe as a «rapid and forceful response» of monetary
policy both to the
changing circumstances and the
changing behaviour of the US economy.
Commodity prices may be affected by a variety of factors at any time, including but not limited to, (i)
changes in supply and demand relationships, (ii) governmental programs and
policies, (iii) national and international political and economic events, war and terrorist events, (iv)
changes in interest and exchange
rates, (v) trading activities
in commodities and related contracts, (vi) pestilence, technological
change and weather, and (vii) the price volatility of a commodity.
This set of monetary
policies affects financial asset prices
in a different way compared to
changes in short - term
interest rates, and we should be humble about what we claim about understanding the importance of this distinction.
Consider these risks before investing: The value of securities
in the fund's portfolio may fall or fail to rise over extended periods of time for a variety of reasons, including general financial market conditions,
changing market perceptions,
changes in government intervention
in the financial markets, and factors related to a specific issuer, industry, or sector and,
in the case of bonds, perceptions about the risk of default and expectations about
changes in monetary
policy or
interest rates.
To have its broader effect, monetary
policy relies on
changes in the cash
rate affecting other
interest rates.
I have used a fall
in exports to show how constrained Beijing's
policy choices are, but I could just have easily done the same using as an example any
change in the currency regime, the reform of the hukou system, the de-industrialization of the bankrupt northeast provinces, the development of the OBOR and Silk Road projects,
changes in interest rates or minimum reserves, protecting the stock market from crashing, the provincial bond swaps,
changes in the tax regime, improving energy and environmental
policies, and so on.
The ECB's monetary
policy in September was a non-event, with the governing council neither making any
changes to the existing
policy nor adding new ones as they voted to leave
interest rates and non-monetary
policies on hold.
In fact, we think there are four major factors that will influence interest rates around the world: changing demographic trends, innovations in technology and energy, financial conditions as related to leverage, liquidity and cash flow, and monetary polic
In fact, we think there are four major factors that will influence
interest rates around the world:
changing demographic trends, innovations
in technology and energy, financial conditions as related to leverage, liquidity and cash flow, and monetary polic
in technology and energy, financial conditions as related to leverage, liquidity and cash flow, and monetary
policy.
They are also predicting some volatility
in long - term
interest rates when the Federal Reserve
changes its stimulus
policy, which could occur
in the fall of 2015.
Measured across all loan products, and taking into account
changes in customer risk margins, however, it seems that
interest rates paid on average by small businesses have increased by a little less than the rise
in interest rates directly due to the tightening of monetary
policy.
Changes in monetary
policy mean a
change in the operating target for the cash
rate, and hence a shift
in the
interest rate structure prevailing
in the financial system.
Possible reasons for stock market pullbacks include rising
interest rates, elevated political uncertainty, a shift
in sentiment or unexpected
changes in fiscal, monetary or trade
policies.
Jury is still out on secular stagnation — «At present, it looks likely that the equilibrium
interest rate will remain low for the
policy - relevant future, but there have
in the past been both long swings and short - term
changes in what can be thought of as equilibrium real
rates»
I'm always dismayed, for example, by how confidently analyts and economists talk about the relationship between monetary
policy and economic outcomes, when the fact is that the level of
interest rates,
changes in interest rates, and
changes in the monetary base provide very little additional forecasting power for GDP, over and above forecasts based on lagged
changes in GDP itself.
At the same time, he acknowledged the downside risks because
changes in fiscal
policy could push real
interest rates higher, offsetting haven demand.
Competition spread more openly to the market for existing borrowers
in mid 1996 when banks cut the
interest rate on standard variable -
rate loans independently of any effect on funding costs from a
change in monetary
policy.
«Yes I agree with all that, and we welcomed the
change in fiscal
policy because it meant we could keep forecast inflation on target without having to cut
interest rates, which we would otherwise have done.
When we talk about the Bank of Canada offsetting rather than accommodating
changes in fiscal
policy, it is important to understand that we are talking about
changing the nominal
interest rate relative to what it would have been otherwise without the fiscal
policy change, and not relative to what the nominal
rate was
in the past.
Monetary
policy is maintained through actions such as modifying the
interest rate, buying or selling government bonds, and
changing the amount of money banks are required to keep
in the vault (bank reserves).
Investors feel encouraged to invest
in economies with stable
interest rate policies and it is to Canada's benefit not to
change interest rates too much or too often.
Some of the risks of investing
in real estate include
changing laws, including environmental laws; floods, fires, and other Acts of God, some of which can be uninsurable;
changes in national or local economic conditions;
changes in government
policies, including
changes in interest rates established by the Federal Reserve; and international crises.
Furthermore, the Fed would like to adhere to the so - called «Taylor Rule» (
in spite of Professor Taylor's protestations that it is misinterpreting and misusing his concept), a mathematical construct that purports to make monetary
policy more «scientific» by establishing an arithmetic rule for varying the administered
interest rate according to the variance of «actual from target inflation» (note that «inflation» refers to the
change in a price index
in this case, not the phenomenon of inflation of the money supply as such), as well as the variance of economic output from «potential output» (i.e, the so - called «output gap» is incorporated
in the formula as well).
This capacity has been further enhanced by a
change in operating procedures, which has seen public announcements of every
change in the official cash
rate — the key
policy interest rate — since January 1990.
As a minimum, however, the effects of
changes in interest rates should be removed when trying to assess underlying inflation for
policy purposes.
Such models can also better inform the scoring of tax
changes, as well as other models of
policy, such as those used by the Federal Reserve to characterize how households respond to movements
in interest rates.
In the long run, the interest - rate effects of fiscal policies lead to changes in private investment spending by businesses and individuals that partially, if not entirely, offset the output and employment effects of fiscal polic
In the long run, the
interest -
rate effects of fiscal
policies lead to
changes in private investment spending by businesses and individuals that partially, if not entirely, offset the output and employment effects of fiscal polic
in private investment spending by businesses and individuals that partially, if not entirely, offset the output and employment effects of fiscal
policy.
Traditional income investors have been
in despair for years now since the Fed adopted its zero
interest rate policy and doesn't appear to be
changing course any time soon.
Consider these risks before investing: Bond prices may fall or fail to rise over time for several reasons, including general financial market conditions,
changing market perceptions (including perceptions about the risk of default and expectations about monetary
policy or
interest rates),
changes in government intervention
in the financial markets, and factors related to a specific issuer or industry.
The bond markets are extremely active, with
interest rates constantly
changing in response to a number of factors including
changes in the supply and demand of credit, Federal Reserve
policy, fiscal
policy, exchange
rates, economic conditions, market psychology and, above all,
changes in expectations about inflation.
Asset prices may fall or fail to rise over time for several reasons, including general financial market conditions,
changing market perceptions (including,
in the case of bonds, perceptions about the risk of default and expectations about monetary
policy or
interest rates),
changes in government intervention
in the financial markets, and factors related to a specific issuer, industry or commodity.
Monetary
policy is maintained through actions such as modifying the
interest rate, buying or selling government bonds, and
changing the amount of money banks are required to keep
in the vault (bank reserves).
The term structure reflects expectations of market participants about future
changes in interest rates and their assessment of monetary
policy conditions.
But with the Fed's intention to keep its zero -
interest rate policy in place until at least mid-2015 and other major central banks, including the European Central Bank, flooding their economies with liquidity, that all might
change.
Stock and bond prices may fall or fail to rise over time for several reasons, including general financial market conditions,
changing market perceptions (including,
in the case of bonds, perceptions about the risk of default and expectations about monetary
policy or
interest rates),
changes in government intervention
in the financial markets, and factors related to a specific issuer or industry.
Interest rates change in response to a number of factors —
changes in supply and demand for credit, fiscal
policy, exchange
rates, economic conditions, and crucial for the bond market,
changes in expectations of inflation.
Ask your agent how the
policy is affected by
interest rate changes,
changes in mortality (deaths), profits of the company,
changes in the value of the investments supporting the
policy, and
changes in other key factors.
Other Universal Life plans can see costs rise throughout the duration of the
policy because of possible
changes in interest rates or costs of insurance, but a GUL
policy will always be the same premium cost for each payment.