We also find that
changes in mean SST alone can account for the majority of these changes, at least over the satellite record.
Not exact matches
Yet the paper states that «The best - fitting model (ECS = 2.4 K) reproduces well the reconstructed global
mean cooling of 2.2 K...» I assume the difference is that the global
mean cooling cited
in the paper includes the contribution of
SST change, which, according to MARGO, is -1.9 ± 1.8 °C, whereas the -3.3 or -3.5 °C is for SAT.
We then perturb this input with the
change in the seasonal
mean SSTs and the seasonal
mean state of the atmosphere as projected by an ensemble
mean of global models for the end of the 21st century.
Regional modes of variability, such as the AMO, largely cancel out and make a very small contribution
in the global
mean SST changes.
A tropical
SST link would explain why the signal is strongest with a 10 to 20 year lag of the long - term
changes (Waple et al, 2001), but the noise
in the NAO record could
mean that you only see significant
changes after long term averaging.
«On forced temperature
changes, internal variability, and the AMO» «Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation
in the global
mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate
change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings
in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal
SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century
SST trends
in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings
in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures»
Spherical harmonics are the natural choice for representing patterns on a sphere, but the oceans don't cover the whole of the sphere and the physical processes that govern
changes in SST might
mean that harmonics aren't the most natural set of patterns for efficiently capturing that variability.
«However, the global
mean SST is 0.06 °C warmer after 1980
in ERSST.v4 because of the buoy adjustments (not shown) and there are therefore impacts on the long - term trends compared to applying no adjustment to account for the
change in observational platforms.»
Furthermore there is no evidence of what the increase
in SST actually
means and I would say it
means the hook that is the temperature gradient of the first few cm of the ocean simply shifts a little left or right but doesn't
change shape appreciably.
Units are °C global
mean surface temperature for °C
change in SST within the partition element.
Roger also points out on his site that it is not just
SST that are affected by climate
change, I read this to
mean that land use
changes, local
changes in climate forcings and so forth may counteract the expected increase from
SST locally.