Not exact matches
When scientists use climate models for attribution studies, they first run simulations with estimates of only «natural» climate influences
over the past 100 years, such as
changes in solar output and major volcanic eruptions.
In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossibl
In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo
changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover)
solar output, and differences
in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossibl
in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor
over the short term is difficult to impossible.
We find that
changes in naturally occurring climate variability patterns can play a major role
in large regional
changes (especially cooling
over North America and Europe as
solar output decreases).
They concluded that with a bit of help from
changes in solar output and natural climatic cycles such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the growth
in the volume of aerosols being pumped up power station chimneys was probably enough to block the warming effect of rising greenhouse gas emissions
over the period 1998 - 2008.
Uncertainty
in natural climate drivers, for example how much
solar output will
change over this century, also affects the accuracy of projections.
The only thing that I would contend could be added would be long slow cumulative
changes in solar output other than raw TSI namely
changes in the mix of particles and wavelengths
over longer periods of time such as MWP to LIA to date and which seem to have some effect on surface pressure distribution and global albedo so as to alter
solar shortwave into the oceans and thus affecting the energy available to the ENSO process.
Over the last 50 years,
solar variations have resulted
in less than a.1 %
change in solar energy
output.
Certainly, with no convincing explanation for the major climate variations we know have occurred
over 10K to multi-M year periods, I would be very hesitant to assume that
changes in solar output could not be a contributor.