However, with recent developments in modelling approaches and computational resources examining the potential impacts of
changes in storminess has become feasible, as exemplified by studies of Muis et al (2016), who used the first dynamic global storm surge model to simulate past water levels for the global coast, or Vousdoukas et al (2016), who simulated future storm surge changes along the entire European coast.
Not exact matches
These
changes have been compounded by stronger waves
in the North Sea
in recent decades, and could be further exacerbated if predictions that
storminess will increase with global warming prove accurate.
Their model simulates watershed rainfall under various climate
change scenarios that reflect differences
in the degree of wetness or
storminess.
Instead, what seemed to be the main factor that increased the chances of that extreme
storminess was a
change in winds all the way over
in the tropical Pacific.
The development of this river system may be linked to
changes in temperature, precipitation, rainwater acidity, and
storminess.
Although Holocene climate events are relatively minor on a glacial / interglacial perspective, the small Holocene
changes in the polar vortex and atmospheric
storminess documented by O'Brien et al. (1995) would probably cause widespread disruption to human society if they were to occur
in the future (Keigwin and Boyle 2000:1343).»
Or assess the likelihood of
changes in rainfall or
storminess?
Although the age model gives some uncertainty
in the timings, it appears that
storminess increased at the onset and close of North Atlantic cold events associated with oceanic
changes, with reduced storm activity at their peak.
We suggest that the long - term trends
in storminess were caused by insolation
changes, while oceanic forcing may have influenced millennial variability.
They further note that these
changes in coastal hydrodynamics were
in phase with those observed over the Eastern North Atlantic... and that the periods of increased
storminess they identified seem to correspond to periods of Holocene cooling detected
in the North Atlantic...» [Pierre Sabatier, Laurent Dezileau, Christophe Colin, Louis Briqueu, Frédéric Bouchette, Philippe Martinez, Giuseppe Siani, Olivier Raynal, Ulrich Von Grafenstein 2012: Quaternary Research]
The NAO's prominent upward trend from the 1950s to the 1990s caused large regional
changes in air temperature, precipitation, wind and
storminess, with accompanying impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and contributed to the accelerated rise
in global mean surface temperature (e.g., Hurrell 1996; Ottersen et al. 2001; Thompson et al. 2000; Visbeck et al. 2003; Stenseth et al. 2003).
It's not really obvious how all of this relates to the «variability» issue, but right now I don't think we have a satisfactory handle on how mid-latitude
storminess might
change in a new climate,
in terms of frequency or intensity.
In addition, human - induced climate
change may alter atmospheric circulation, dislocating historical patterns of natural variability and
storminess.
In contrast, a projected reduction in storminess over the western US and Great Lakes regions will increase the possibility of heat waves there, exacerbating the mean temperature increase due to climate change, thus producing earlier To
In contrast, a projected reduction
in storminess over the western US and Great Lakes regions will increase the possibility of heat waves there, exacerbating the mean temperature increase due to climate change, thus producing earlier To
in storminess over the western US and Great Lakes regions will increase the possibility of heat waves there, exacerbating the mean temperature increase due to climate
change, thus producing earlier ToE.