This includes
changes in heat content of the lithosphere (Beltrami et al., 2002), the atmosphere (e.g., Trenberth et al., 2001) and the total heat of fusion due to melting of i) glaciers, ice caps and the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets (see Chapter 4) and ii) arctic sea ice (Hilmer and Lemke, 2000).
Changes in the heat content of the oceans.
[Response: Hi Roger, Please point me to one study anywhere in the literature which has used the surface temperature record to infer
changes in the heat content of the atmosphere.
«Please point me to one study anywhere in the literature which has used the surface temperature record to infer
changes in the heat content of the atmosphere».
Writing in the October 1 issue of Nature, David Victor and Charles Kennel, both of the University of California, San Diego, argue for pegging climate policy to a new «array of planetary vital signs,» such as
changes in the heat content of the oceans.
Changes in the heat content of the deep ocean are thus far more sensitive to the air - sea thermal interchanges than previously considered.
Observations suggest lower values for climate sensitivity whether we study long - term humidity, upper tropospheric temperature trends, outgoing long wave radiation, cloud cover changes, or
the changes in the heat content of the vast oceans.
At that point you try and measure
changes in heat content of the upper ocean, more precisely, the flow of energy into and out of the upper ocean by measuring the change in heat content over time.
Why are you correlating CFC's against surface temperatures as an indication of what might be occurring rather than against total
change in the heat content of the entire system?
This is a blow - up of
the changes in the heat content of the top 300 meters and then from 300 to 700 meters.
Not exact matches
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However, radiation
changes at the top
of the atmosphere from the 1980s to 1990s, possibly related
in part to the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, appear to be associated with reductions
in tropical upper - level cloud cover, and are linked to
changes in the energy budget at the surface and
changes in observed ocean
heat content.
The purple lines
in the graph below show how the
heat content of the whole ocean has
changed over the past five decades.
We can estimate this independently using the
changes in ocean
heat content over the last decade or so (roughly equal to the current radiative imbalance)
of ~ 0.7 W / m2, implying that this «unrealised» forcing will lead to another 0.7 × 0.75 ºC — i.e. 0.5 ºC.
For as much as atmospheric temperatures are rising, the amount
of energy being absorbed by the planet is even more striking when one looks into the deep oceans and the
change in the global
heat content (Figure 4).
Figure 3 is the comparison
of the upper level (top 700m) ocean
heat content (OHC)
changes in the models compared to the latest data from NODC and PMEL (Lyman et al (2010), doi).
Changes in Hadley circulation affects convection and thus atmospheric moisture
content and cloud cover which may
in turn affect net solar
heating as well as the transfer
of heat from Earth to space.
In the Common Era before the 21st century, changes in ocean heat content and in mountain glaciers were likely the main drivers of global sea - level chang
In the Common Era before the 21st century,
changes in ocean heat content and in mountain glaciers were likely the main drivers of global sea - level chang
in ocean
heat content and
in mountain glaciers were likely the main drivers of global sea - level chang
in mountain glaciers were likely the main drivers
of global sea - level
change.
However, lacking global observations
of surface mass and ocean
heat content capable
of resolving year to year variations with sufficient accuracy, comprehensive diagnosis
of the events early
in the altimetry record (e.g. such as determining the relative roles
of thermal expansion versus mass
changes) has remained elusive.
Linear trends (1955 — 2003)
of change in ocean
heat content per unit surface area (W m — 2) for the 0 to 700 m layer, based on the work
of Levitus et al. (2005a).
Another figure worth updating is the comparison
of the ocean
heat content (OHC)
changes in the models compared to the latest data from NODC.
We assess the
heat content change from both
of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003 period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an average warming
of 0.1 °C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m — 2, and conclude that the available
heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003 show a significant increasing trend
in ocean
heat content.
Examination
of the geographical distribution
of the differences
in 0 to 700 m
heat content between the 1977 — 1981 and 1965 — 1969 pentads and the 1986 — 1990 and 1977 — 1981 pentads shows that the pattern
of heat content change has spatial scales
of entire ocean basins and is also found
in similar analyses by Ishii et al. (2006).
You've got the radiative physics, the measurements
of ocean temperature and land temperature, the
changes in ocean
heat content (Hint — upwards, whereas if if was just a matter
of circulation moving
heat around you might expect something more simple) and
of course observed predictions such as stratospheric cooling which you don't get when warming occurs from oceanic circulation.
Observed
changes in ocean
heat content have now been shown to be inconsistent with simulated natural climate variability, but consistent with a combination
of natural and anthropogenic influences both on a global scale, and
in individual ocean basins.
This includes: Introduction to the particle model Calculating Density Required Practical (Measuring Density)
Change of state Specific
Heat Capacity Specific Latent
Heat Pressure
in Gases Summary / Review lesson (Trilogy
content) Boyle's Law Increasing gas pressure
This means that, e.g., if
heat moves from the tropical surface water (temp about 25C) to surface waters at lower temps, the net effect is a subsidence
of sea level — even without any
change in total
heat content.
The key observation here is the increase
in ocean
heat content over the last half century (the figure below shows three estimates
of the
changes since 1955).
Numerous denier arguments involving slight fluctuations
in the global distribution
of warmer vs cooler sea surface areas as supposed explanations
of climate
change neglect all the energy that goes into ocean
heat content, melting large ice deposits and so forth.
We find that the difference between the
heat balance at the top
of the atmosphere and upper - ocean
heat content change is not statistically significant when accounting for observational uncertainties
in ocean measurements3, given transitions
in instrumentation and sampling.
Better information about ocean
heat content is also available to help there, but this is still a work
in progress and is a great example
of why it is harder to attribute
changes over small time periods.
The next figure is the comparison
of the ocean
heat content (OHC)
changes in the models compared to the latest data from NODC.
Eg see the map
in LWJ06's Fig 2, which shows regional
heat content changes, expressed as fluxes, on the order
of + / - 50 W / m2.
The advantage
of the ocean
heat content changes for detecting climate
changes is that there is less noise than
in the surface temperature record due to the weather that affects the atmospheric measurements, but that has much less impact below the ocean mixed layer.
The key points
of the paper are that: i) model simulations with 20th century forcings are able to match the surface air temperature record, ii) they also match the measured
changes of ocean
heat content over the last decade, iii) the implied planetary imbalance (the amount
of excess energy the Earth is currently absorbing) which is roughly equal to the ocean
heat uptake, is significant and growing, and iv) this implies both that there is significant
heating «
in the pipeline», and that there is an important lag
in the climate's full response to
changes in the forcing.
The connection between global warming and the
changes in ocean
heat content has long been a subject
of discussion
in climate science.
This idea was explored by Levitus et al (long term observations
of ocean
heat content) and Barnett et al (modelling
of such
changes)
in a couple
of Science papers a few years ago.
If you can't keep up with annual - decadal
changes in the TOA radiative imbalance or ocean
heat content (because
of failure to correctly model
changes in the atmosphere and ocean due to natural variability), then your climate model lacks fidelity to the real world system it is tasked to represent.
[Response: Theoretically you could have a
change in ocean circulation that could cause a drop
in global mean temperature even while the total
heat content of the climate system increased.
The only way to make sense
of it is to interpret them as saying that sfc t is not conserved, unlike say
heat content (which isn't conserved either, but
changes in it represent energy flows
in and out).
Levitus et al (2001) for instance used the reanalysis
heat content changes directly
in their assessment
of heat content changes.
While rereading the ocean
heat content changes by Levitus 2005 at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/PDF/PAPERS/grlheat05.pdf a remarkable sentence was noticed: «However, the large decrease
in ocean
heat content starting around 1980 suggests that internal variability
of the Earth system significantly affects Earth's
heat balance on decadal time - scales.»
One simply can not do arithmetic (least squares trends) on the temperature
of environmental air and expect the result to reflect the
changes in heat content.
If La Nina / El Nino can affect global air temperatures
in a period
of a few years, than other
changes in ocean currents (driven by AGW) can affect global atmospheric
heat content in a few years.
The chart shows that starting
in the late 1940's, we have been able to measure the
heat content of the top 2000 meters
of ocean accurately enough so that annual
changes in ocean
heat content of less than 1e22 joules can be detected and tracked.
The regional patterns
of anthropogenic CO2 storage are consistent with those
of CFCs and with
changes in heat content.
Of course,
change in heat content is related to
change in temperature by the
heat capacity.
Ultimately I suspect it will also have significant implications for analyses
of changes in total oceanic
heat content.
No amount
of change in Ocean
Heat Content (OHC) by itself will have any effect on that.