Projected
changes in the sea ice mass budget of the Arctic.
Not exact matches
Understanding
sea level
change in relation to the
mass balance of Greenland's and Antarctica's
ice sheets is at the heart of the CReSIS mission.
To better understand and anticipate
changes in sea level rise, scientists have sought to quantify how much snow falls on the
ice sheet
in any given year, and where, since snow is the primary source of the
ice sheet's
mass.
Consistent with observed
changes in surface temperature, there has been an almost worldwide reduction
in glacier and small
ice cap (not including Antarctica and Greenland)
mass and extent
in the 20th century; snow cover has decreased
in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere;
sea ice extents have decreased
in the Arctic, particularly
in spring and summer (Chapter 4); the oceans are warming; and
sea level is rising (Chapter 5).
Rates of
sea - level rise calculated from tide gauge data tend to exceed bottom - up estimates derived from summing loss of
ice mass, thermal expansion and
changes in land storage.
That estimate was based
in part on the fact that
sea level is now rising 3.2 mm / yr (3.2 m / millennium)[57], an order of magnitude faster than the rate during the prior several thousand years, with rapid
change of
ice sheet
mass balance over the past few decades [23] and Greenland and Antarctica now losing
mass at accelerating rates [23]--[24].
Sea levels are effected by movement of land
masses both upward and downward,
changes in gravitational pulls on the water due to
changes in ice masses.
And this is just one element
in the
sea level rise — small
ice caps are melting faster, thermal expansion will increase
in line with ocean heat content
changes and Antarctic
ice sheets are also losing
mass.
From recent instrumental observations alone we are therefore unable to predict whether
mass loss from these
ice sheets will vary linearly with
changes in the rate of
sea - level rise, or if a non-linear response is more likely.
The maps suggests growth of parts of coastal East Antarctica, little
change in the interior and
ice mass loss
in West Antarctica (basins 18 - 27 and 1) focused on the Amundsen
Sea Coast region (basins 20 - 23).
To assess these implications, we translate global into local SLR projections using a model of spatial variation
in sea - level contributions caused by isostatic deformation and
changes in gravity as the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets lose
mass (36 ⇓ — 38), represented as two global 0.5 ° matrices of scalar adjustment factors to the
ice sheets» respective median global contributions to SLR and (squared) to their variances.
Researchers at this week's conference discuss how Arctic
sea ice is fundamentally
changing air
masses and weather systems
in the Northern Hemisphere.
Both the observations of
mass balance and the estimates based on temperature
changes (Table 11.4) indicate a reduction of
mass of glaciers and
ice caps
in the recent past, giving a contribution to global - average
sea level of 0.2 to 0.4 mm / yr over the last hundred years.
Pokrovsky predicts a further acceleration of melting of the thin
ice and
in general greater
ice loss compared to his June prediction; this
change is based on the increase
in the
sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies
in the North Atlantic and the presence of hot air
masses over Siberia and the Russian Arctic.
«The observed
changes in sea ice on the Arctic Ocean,
in the
mass of the Greenland
ice sheet and Arctic
ice caps and glaciers over the past 10 years are dramatic and represent an obvious departure from long - term patterns,» says the report.
That estimate was based
in part on the fact that
sea level is now rising 3.2 mm / yr (3.2 m / millennium)[57], an order of magnitude faster than the rate during the prior several thousand years, with rapid
change of
ice sheet
mass balance over the past few decades [23] and Greenland and Antarctica now losing
mass at accelerating rates [23]--[24].
5) Contradictions due to limitations of technology (e.g., trying to measure
sea level rise
in mm when the ocean surface is never still or measure Antarctic
ice mass in a region with constantly
changing surfaces due to snowfall and rising and falling regions).
Mean
sea level (MSL) evolution has a direct impact on coastal areas and is a crucial index of climate
change since it reflects both the amount of heat added
in the ocean and the
mass loss due to land
ice melt (e.g. IPCC, 2013; Dieng et al., 2017) Long - term and inter-annual variations of the
sea level are observed at global and regional scales.
According to the most highly - cited analyses of polar
ice sheet melt and contribution to
sea level rise, the Antarctic
ice sheet as a whole
changed in mass by -71 gigatonnes (GT) per year between 1992 and 2011.
In the case of climate change, we have huge masses of evidence — literally, in the case of the disappearing Arctic sea ice and the collapsing Antarctic ice shel
In the case of climate
change, we have huge
masses of evidence — literally,
in the case of the disappearing Arctic sea ice and the collapsing Antarctic ice shel
in the case of the disappearing Arctic
sea ice and the collapsing Antarctic
ice shelf.
Sea level rise is comprised of two components: mass change due to melting ice and steric sea level rise due to changes in ocean densi
Sea level rise is comprised of two components:
mass change due to melting
ice and steric
sea level rise due to changes in ocean densi
sea level rise due to
changes in ocean density.
The most recent calculations of
ice mass balance
in the antarctic also do indicate loss of
ice, though nothing close to the
changes seen
in the arctic
sea ice and Greenland
ice sheet.
Thirteen years of GRACE data provide an excellent picture of the current
mass changes of Greenland and Antarctica, with
mass loss
in the GRACE period 2002 - 15 amounting to 265 ± 25 GT / yr for Greenland (including peripheral
ice caps), and 95 ± 50 GT / year for Antarctica, corresponding to 0.72 mm / year and 0.26 mm / year average global
sea level
change.
They conclude with another warning: ``... if major shifts
in sea ice cover and ocean circulation tip even large
ice shelf cavities from cold to warm (35), there could be major
changes in ice shelf and thus
ice sheet
mass balance.»
These data are also useful
in the study of unusual weather phenomena such as El Niño, the long - term effects of deforestation on our rain forests, and
changes in the
sea -
ice masses around the polar regions.
To quote from AR5 WG1: «While surface melting will remain small, an increase
in snowfall on the Antarctic
ice sheet is expected (medium confidence), resulting
in a negative contribution to future
sea level from
changes in surface
mass balance.»
Because of
changes in Earth's gravity field resulting from
ice sheet
mass loss, ocean
sea level will actually drop near the areas of melt and rise elsewhere.
Hansen and Sato (7) argue that the climate of the most recent few decades is probably warmer than prior Holocene levels, based on the fact that the major
ice sheets
in both hemispheres are presently losing
mass rapidly (9) and global
sea level is rising at a rate of more than 3 m / millennium (25), which is much greater than the slow rate of
sea level
change (less than 1 m / millennium)
in the latter half of the Holocene (26).
«Greenland hosts the largest reservoir of freshwater
in the northern hemisphere, and any substantial
changes in the
mass of its
ice sheet will affect global
sea level, ocean circulation and climate,» said Velicogna.
However, detecting acceleration is difficult because of (i) interannual variability
in GMSL largely driven by
changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS)(7 ⇓ — 9), (ii) decadal variability
in TWS (10), thermosteric
sea level, and
ice sheet
mass loss (11) that might masquerade as a long - term acceleration over a 25 - y record, (iii) episodic variability driven by large volcanic eruptions (12), and (iv) errors
in the altimeter data,
in particular, potential drifts
in the instruments over time (13).
Arch — The findings, which researchers said do not
change the fact that the
ice sheet is losing
mass overall and contributing to
sea level rise, were published
in the journal Science.
Future
changes in the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheet
mass, particularly due to
changes in ice flow, are a major source of uncertainty that could increase
sea level rise projections.
US CLIVAR is engaging with the SEARCH Program to define common research topics, including
changes in climate,
sea ice extent,
ice sheet
mass in the Arctic basin, and climate impacts on ocean circulation and regional
sea level.
Our scientists have published many papers
in high ranking journals on subjects as varied as build - up of an
ice sheet;
mass extinctions of life; links between
sea ice in the Arctic and climate
change;
ice sheets that may be hiding vast amounts of methane; and specialised life forms around Arctic methane seeps.