Or when the suggestion that there has been a step
change in temperature trends around the turn of the century could be dismissed as «nonsense».
In the periods 1921 — 1925, 1932 — 1938, 1952 — 1957 synchronization is not associated with an increasing coupling strength and
no change in the temperature trend is taking place.
Have you noted a change in the relative or specific humidity at each station that tracks with
the changes in the temperature trend?
We have to look elsewhere for the cause of
the change in temperature trend to flat in BOTH stratosphere and troposphere that occurred in the middle and late 1990s.
A 15 %
change in temperature trends would have an enormous impact on our understanding of things even though it wouldn't disprove AGW.
The changes in temperatures trends follow changes in the El Niño — Southern Oscillation with compelling temporal correlations.
There is
no change in temperature trend for all the years we have reasonable data for.
3) However, even if the actual variance in TSI during that period was less than 4 Watts per square metre the fact is that various
changes in temperature trend did occur and the shape of the chart would remain so on the basis of real world observations we must accept that the lower the range of TSI involved then the more sensitive the Earth is as a water based thermometer.
This has not resulted in some small change to the temperatures as measured at Amberley, but rather
a change in the temperature trend from one of cooling to dramatic warming; this is also what was done to the minimum temperature series for Rutherglen — and also without justification.
Not exact matches
Wildfires have gotten worse
in recent years because of climate
change, and that
trend is expected to continue as Earth's average
temperature rises.
While this is bad news for the planet, it's good news for climate
change scientists who have — for the last two decades — puzzled over warming
trends in ocean surface
temperatures for nearly 20 years.
In 2003 the White House instructed the Environmental Protection Agency to delete from its annual Report on the Environment any reference to a study showing that human activity contributes significantly to climate
change, and also to delete
temperature data showing a worsening warming
trend.
However, solar variability alone can not explain the post-1970 global
temperature trends, especially the global
temperature rise
in the last three decades of the 20th Century, which has been attributed by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere.»
Several studies linked this to
changes in sea surface
temperatures in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans, but it was not clear if this was part of a long - term
trend.
Climate
change has caused ocean
temperatures to rise, a
trend that will continue
in the coming centuries even if fossil fuel emissions are curtailed.
«We find that current emission
trends continue to track scenarios that lead to the highest
temperature increases,» they wrote
in an analysis published yesterday
in the journal Nature Climate
Change.
The locations of weather stations,
changes in instruments, the siting of weather stations
in warmer urban areas,
changes in land cover and other issues have all been cited as issues affecting the
temperature trends often used to show that our planet is
in fact warming.
«This
trend is not seen during the industrial period, where Northern Hemisphere
temperature changes, driven by humanmade forcings, precede variability
in the marine environment.»
To find out how average monthly
temperatures had
changed from 1847 to 2013, the researchers used an advanced statistical time series approach to figure out what
changes in temperature were due to natural variability and what
changes represented a long - term
trend.
The pattern of rapid human colonisation through the Americas, coinciding with contrasting
temperature trends in each continent, allowed the researchers to disentangle the relative impact of human arrival and climate
change.
A 2000 - year transient climate simulation with the Community Climate System Model shows the same
temperature sensitivity to
changes in insolation as does our proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long - term
trend was caused by the steady orbitally driven reduction
in summer insolation.
The results suggest that the impact of sea ice seems critical for the Arctic surface
temperature changes, but the
temperature trend elsewhere seems rather due mainly to
changes in ocean surface
temperatures and atmospheric variability.
Researchers
in California say climate
change could spur an increase
in global violence by as much as 50 percent over the next forty years if current
temperature trends continue.
Just as the underlying
change in sea level is swamped by the daily and monthly
changes, so the annual variation
in global
temperature masks any underlying
trends.
A research ecologist not connected to the study, Jeremy Littell of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the Alaska Climate Science Center
in Anchorage, AK, said the
trends in fire activity reported
in the paper resemble what would be expected from rising
temperatures caused by climate
change.
The findings show a slight but notable increase
in that average
temperature, putting a dent
in the idea that global warming has slowed over the past 15 years, a
trend highlighted
in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change report.
Wildfires across the western United States have been getting bigger and more frequent over the last 30 years — a
trend that could continue as climate
change causes
temperatures to rise and drought to become more severe
in the coming decades, according to new research.
Such
trends mean scientists and policymakers will have to factor
in how synthetic climate forcers other than greenhouse gases will
change temperature, rainfall and weather extremes.
For the globe, ranks of individual years
changed in some instances by a few positions, but global
temperature trends changed no more than 0.01 °C / century for any month since 1880.
For the globe, ranks of individual years
changed in some instances by a few positions, but global land
temperature trends changed no more than 0.01 °C / century for any month since 1880.
A recent paper
in Nature Geosciences by Gillet et al. examined
trends in temperatures in the both Antarctic and the Arctic, and concluded that «
temperature changes in both... regions can be attributed to human activity.»
Now
in its 25th year, the report pulls together hundreds of scientists from dozens of countries to piece together the
changes from the previous year
in all aspects of the Earth's climate — from carbon dioxide levels to the planet's rising
temperature, from glacier melt to
change in soil moisture — and puts them
in the context of decades - long
trends.
In it they extend the idea mentioned above of using wind shear as a check on the
temperature trends and come up with a another new estimate of the
changes.
While there remain disparities among different tropospheric
temperature trends estimated from satellite Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU and advanced MSU) measurements since 1979, and all likely still contain residual errors, estimates have been substantially improved (and data set differences reduced) through adjustments for issues of
changing satellites, orbit decay and drift
in local crossing time (i.e., diurnal cycle effects).
To remove this difference
in magnitude and focus instead on the patterns of
change, the authors scaled the vertical profiles of ocean
temperature (area - weighted with respect to each vertical ocean layer) with the global surface air
temperature trend of each period.
Thus it is very important to know what the real impact of historical solar
changes is, as 0.1 K
in the past, results
in climate sensitivity for anthropogenic at the high end, while 0.9 K results
in a very low effect of anthropogenic, if the instrumental
temperature trend of the last 1.5 century is used as reference.
Global climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, showing
temperature and precipitation
trends for two different future scenarios, as described
in the Climate chapter of this assessment (IPCC 2014a).
Additionally, there were also regional differences
in the spatial patterns of
change trend in the ARNC
temperature at a given time.
-- Along with analyzing historical
trends in temperature and precipitation, we performed an analysis of
changes in extreme climate events since the middle of last century.
This time lag was then used
in Figure 7 to show that close correlation between
trends in temperature and
changes in the Southern Oscillation Index seven months previously.
The climate
in most places has undergone minor
changes over the past 200 years, and the land - based surface
temperature record of the past 100 years exhibits warming
trends in many places.
Changes in the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes, of both moisture and
temperature, are affected by climate
trends as well as
changing variability.
While previous years have also seen large spikes
in November - December
temperatures, these peaks are occurring on top of a upward
trend, says Prof Jennifer Francis, an expert
in Arctic climate
change at Rutgers University.
The products you're using now may be working just fine, but since the season's cooler
temperatures will inevitably
change your skin, hair, and makeup needs, start by hitting refresh on the products
in your current rotation and swap
in a few on -
trend products to spice things up.
The warming
trends in looking at numerous 100 year
temperature plots from northern and high elevation climate stations... i.e. warming
trends in annual mean and minimum
temperature averages, winter monthly means and minimums and especially winter minimum
temperatures and dewpoints... indicate climate warming that is being driven by the accumulation of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere — no visible effects from other things like
changes in solar radiation or the levels of cosmic rays.
Human induced
trend has two components, namely (a) greenhouse effect [this includes global and local / regional component] and (b) non-greenhouse effect [local / regional component]-- according to IPCC (a) is more than half of global average
temperature anomaly wherein it also includes component of volcanic activities, etc that comes under greenhouse effect; and (b) contribution is less than half — ecological
changes component but this is biased positive side by urban - heat - island effect component as the met network are concentrated
in urban areas and rural - cold - island effect is biased negative side as the met stations are sparsely distributed though rural area is more than double to urban area.
However, there are various other plausible explanations, for example: —
changes in US
temperatures since the 1930s / 1940s show regional variation within the overall warming
trend at those latitudes; — actually I'm struggling to think of any others, apart from inaccuracies
in the US
temperature record but these have tended to point the other way.
Firstly, there's no significant
change in trend (given ARMA (1,1) noise), and secondly it ignores knowledge about what the climatological
temperature is at the beginning of the
trend.
First, it provides a compilation of global
trends in glacier terminus positions since 1600 A.D. Second, it uses this compilation to create a new estimate of global
temperature change.
The adjustments are unlikely to significantly affect estimates of century - long
trends in global - mean
temperatures, as the data before, 1940 and after the mid-1960s are not expected to require further corrections for
changes from uninsulated bucket to engine room intake measurements.