«This doesn't sound like much, but keep in mind that if
a change of this magnitude occurred in the human blood stream, we would die.»
I do not see activity
changes of that magnitude occurring on your graph — admittedly the period of coverage is limited to 30 years and is therefore a very small sampling.
Not exact matches
Another set
of tissues show a more sustained response, with gene expression
changes of similar
magnitude occurring through all PMI intervals (Fig. 2c).
Any
change of this
magnitude will require coordination from SkyTeam airline partners as well as American Express, so if it does indeed
occur, we'll be writing all about it here on The TICKET.
... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively small increases in CO2 concentration and global mean temperature... Polar amplification
occurs if the
magnitude of zonally averaged surface temperature
change at high latitudes exceeds the globally averaged temperature
change, in response to climate forcings and on time scales greater than the annual cycle.
Currently, the widespread scientific consensus is that global climate
change of this
magnitude has never
occurred since the dawn
of civilization.
Starting from an old equilbrium, a
change in radiative forcing results in a radiative imbalance, which results in energy accumulation or depletion, which causes a temperature response that approahes equilibrium when the remaining imbalance approaches zero — thus the equilibrium climatic response, in the global - time average (for a time period long enough to characterize the climatic state, including externally imposed cycles (day, year) and internal variability), causes an opposite
change in radiative fluxes (via Planck function)(plus convective fluxes, etc, where they
occur) equal in
magnitude to the sum
of the (externally) imposed forcing plus any «forcings» caused by non-Planck feedbacks (in particular, climate - dependent
changes in optical properties, + etc.).)
While we don't know precisely why the CO2
changes occur on long timescales, (the mechanisms are well understood; the details are not), we do know that explaining the
magnitude of global temperature
change requires including CO2.
Several
of us have been looking, but nowhere can we find a defining paper that is quantitative, that shows where in the atmosphere the temperature
change occurs and what its
magnitude, sign and uncertainty are.
While the three ozone databases all show a reduction in ozone in the lower tropical stratosphere, the
magnitude of this
change differs substantially between them and
occurs against a backdrop
of much larger interannual variability.
Threshold - The level
of magnitude of a system process at which sudden or rapid
change occurs.
At the AGU 2013 meeting it was also noted that the reduction in the solar wind density has
changed rise time
of the solar wind bursts (the solar wind burst still
occur but the rise time
of the wind burst is significant less which in turn will reduce the solar wind bursts effect on the ionosphere, reduce the
magnitude of the electroscangening effect.
Abrupt and severe temperature shifts have
occurred on occasion in the past, typically separated by hundreds
of years or more, but shifts
of this
magnitude that are global in extent have almost always
occurred during glacial eras, when the extent
of snow and ice allowed for great
changes in feedback in response to only modest signals.
Note also, having aerosols a cooling means that your relationship between CO2 and temperature in the ice - cores is blown away; dust levels increase by three orders
of magnitude going from warming to cooling, and dust
changes occur before temperature
changes, which
occur before CO2
changes.
While this is certainly a true statement, it does not follow that we should increase the frequency and
magnitude of water resource stress by increasing evaporation, drought frequency, water loss from plants, etc., as the USGCRP report notes will
occur as human - induced climate
change increases.
Trends in the peak
magnitude, frequency, duration and volume
of frequent floods (floods
occurring at an average
of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large
changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant.
It's not the
magnitude of the
changing insolation that is important: it's when and where it
occurs!
Based on an extensive literature review, we suggest that (1) climate warming
occurs with great uncertainty in the
magnitude of the temperature increase; (2) both human activities and natural forces contribute to climate
change, but their relative contributions are difficult to quantify; and (3) the dominant role of the increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (including CO2) in the global warming claimed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is questioned by the scientific communities because of large uncertainties in the mechanisms of natural factors and anthropogenic activities and in the sources of the increased atmospheric CO2 concentr
change, but their relative contributions are difficult to quantify; and (3) the dominant role
of the increase in the atmospheric concentration
of greenhouse gases (including CO2) in the global warming claimed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) is questioned by the scientific communities because of large uncertainties in the mechanisms of natural factors and anthropogenic activities and in the sources of the increased atmospheric CO2 concentr
Change (IPCC) is questioned by the scientific communities because
of large uncertainties in the mechanisms
of natural factors and anthropogenic activities and in the sources
of the increased atmospheric CO2 concentration.
[T] hey can
change their pattern
of energy production and usage in order to limit emissions
of greenhouse gases and hence the
magnitude of climate
changes; they can wait for
changes to
occur and accept the losses, damage and suffering that arise; they can adapt to actual and expected
changes as much as possible; or they can seek as yet unproven «geoengineering» solutions to counteract some
of the climate
changes that would otherwise
occur.
•
Changes in the magnitude and temporal pattern of pollutant loading in the coastal ocean will occur as a result of changes in precipitation and
Changes in the
magnitude and temporal pattern
of pollutant loading in the coastal ocean will
occur as a result
of changes in precipitation and
changes in precipitation and runoff.
The authors recognize that there «remains a range
of estimates on the
magnitude and regional expression
of future
change» but state with certainty that «[f] urther climate
change is inevitable» and «if emissions
of greenhouse gases continue unabated, future
changes will substantially exceed those that have
occurred so far.»
Changes in the CR flux during large FD events are of the same order of magnitude as changes experienced over the decadal solar cycle, but occur over a period of several days (Čalogović et al.
Changes in the CR flux during large FD events are
of the same order
of magnitude as
changes experienced over the decadal solar cycle, but occur over a period of several days (Čalogović et al.
changes experienced over the decadal solar cycle, but
occur over a period
of several days (Čalogović et al. 2010).
So while the jury is still out for this drought, there are droughts in the recent past, such as the Texas drought in 2011, where it was found that conditions, as a result
of climate
change, made it 20 times more likely for a drought
of that
magnitude to
occur today as opposed to, say, the 1960s.
Another recent study, by scientists from the U.K., Hawaii and Massachusetts, concluded that «marine and freshwater assemblages have always experienced variable pH conditions,» and that «in many freshwater lakes, pH
changes that are orders
of magnitude greater than those projected for the 22nd - century oceans can
occur over periods
of hours.
... The impacts
of [climate
change] will be critically dependent on the
magnitude of the warming and the rate with which it
occurs.»
Several
of the most difficult emerge from the long time - scale over which the
changes occur (see Section 14.3) and the possible need for action well before the
magnitude (and certainty)
of the impacts is clear (see Section 14.5).
But the time scales are even more impressively different when you consider the
magnitude of the
changes and how fast they've
occurred.