In other words, it is a measure for how the «average» weather
changes over longer timescales.
It has been happening since the last deglaciation, and its rate
changes over longer timescales than the ones we focused on here.
Not exact matches
Until now,
changes in the relative proportion of rare mutations, that could be both detrimental and adaptive, had only been shown
over relatively
long timescales, by comparing African and European populations.
«Additionally,
over a
longer timescale, by keeping close connection between astrophysicists and climate researchers, this programme will aid in the understanding of our own
changing climate.»
This allowed us not only to map the cloud distribution, but also how it
changes from rotation to rotation and also
over longer timescales: our observations were following the brown dwarfs for more than a year.
In a paper published in Science Advances, he proposes that mass extinction occurs if one of two thresholds are crossed: For
changes in the carbon cycle that occur
over long timescales, extinctions will follow if those
changes occur at rates faster than global ecosystems can adapt.
Climate scientists would say in response that
changes in ocean circulation can't sustain a net
change in global temperature
over such a
long period (ENSO for example might raise or lower global temperature on a
timescale of one or two years, but
over decades there would be roughly zero net
change).
[It is helps us to understand what natural forces are currently at work that could be causing
changes... But note that some natural forces like the ones that I talked about above work
over much
longer timescales than the century
timescale over which we are making significant
changes in greenhouse gas levels.
[Response: the Milankovitch
timescale is
long and the forcing barely varies due to orbital
changes over 100 years so no, they aren't included (they would be for people modelling the last glacial maximum); solar forcing is modelled by
change in total solar irradiance (probably as a total number; not sure if
changes at different wavelengths are included)-- William]
Our results support the use of short - term manipulative experiments spanning weeks as proxies to understand the potential effects of global
change forcing on diatom community structure
over longer timescales such as years.
Ricarda Winkelmann et al. modeled the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to a wide range of future carbon emissions scenarios
over the
long - term (previous simulations have mainly looked at
changes that might occur on a shorter
timescale).
The release of carbon dioxide and methane from the Arctic will provide a positive feedback to climate
change which will be more important
over longer timescales — millennia and
longer.
It would require a much stronger relationship of temperature driving CO2 than occurred during the ice age — interglacial oscillations (and it is also important to remember that those
changes occurred
over much
longer timescales too... which is the presumed reason why there is a several hundred year lag time between temperatures starting to rise or fall and CO2 starting to rise or fall).
The correspondence to obvserved
changes in C02 on
timescales of a couple of years,
over the satellite era and to the degree seen even
over the 20th century, makes it difficult not to conclude that sources involed in
changes of C02 on short
timescales are also involved in its
change on
long timescales.
The researches thus «urge extreme caution in attributing short - term trends (i.e.
over many decades and
longer) in US tropical cyclone losses to anthropogenic climate
change,» stating that «anthropogenic climate
change signals are unlikely to emerge in US tropical cyclone losses on
timescales of less than a century under the projections examined here.»
«Based on the results from this emergence
timescale analysis we urge extreme caution in attributing short - term trends (i.e.
over many decades and
longer) in normalized US tropical cyclone losses to anthropogenic climate
change,» says Crompton.
In particular, anomalously high convection in ENSO and ENSO - related regional cloud
changes can lead to negative feedbacks not seen with persistent forcings that operate
over longer timescales on a more global basis.
The potential
change in the radiative restoration strength
over longer timescales is also considered, resulting in a likely (67 %) range of 1.5 — 2.9 K for equilibrium climate sensitivity, and a 90 % confidence interval of 1.2 — 5.1 K
«The only way to predict the day - to - day weather and
changes to the climate
over longer timescales is to use computer models.»
Only
over climate
timescales (typically, 30 years or more), do the
long - term trends emerge that reflect the influence of
changes in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide.»
Furthermore, although not in direct relation to the solar - cloud studies, Brest et al. (1997) state that the ISCCP data are not sensitive enough to detect small
changes in cloud cover
over long timescales.
Because of the time lags involve in the climate system, short - term
changes can be very difficult to predict, but
over a
long enough
timescale, these kinds of effects become all but certain.
Assuming a CR - cloud connection exists, there are various factors which could potentially account for a lack of detection of this relationship
over both
long and short
timescales studies, including: uncertainties, artefacts and measurement limitations of the datasets; high noise levels in the data relative to the (likely low) amplitude of any solar - induced
changes; the inability of studies to effectively isolate solar parameters; or the inability to isolate solar - induced
changes from natural climate oscillations and periodicities.
Climate scientists would say in response that
changes in ocean circulation can't sustain a net
change in global temperature
over such a
long period (ENSO for example might raise or lower global temperature on a
timescale of one or two years, but
over decades there would be roughly zero net
change).
Debates
over discounting are longstanding in climate analysis, but as my colleague Jerry Taylor wrote last year, economists who study climate
change are inclined to choose lower discount rates because of the inter-generational transfers and
long timescales associated with climate
change.
When in balance, primary production and respiration processes result in large diel variability (Table 2), but are essentially CO2 - neutral; however,
over longer timescales, spatial and / or temporal decoupling of these processes can
change pH drastically (Borges and Gypens 2010; Provoost et al. 2010; Cai et al. 2011).
However, large
changes occurred
over longer (100 Myr)
timescales (Tyrrell and Zeebe 2004).
Another point he makes regards the speed of the
change in CO2 levels and that somehow overwhelming negative feedbacks that would otherwise occur if the
change in CO2 levels happened
over a
longer timescale.
However, the expectation is that if we average
over a sufficiently
long timescales (decades) that the response will be roughly linear (I'm thinking specifically about temperature
change, and
changes to the hydrological cycle).