The inherent analog and
chaotic behavior of fluids make them ideally suited to «compute» or «simulate» inherent analog and
chaotic behavior of the universe at an «anthropomorphic» size and time scale.
Unfortunately, this can not be reliably predicted since it depends on
the chaotic behavior of the convection layer of the sun...).
The actual
chaotic behavior of Earth's climate system is much closer to the behavior of a Rayleigh - Beynard cell, which can be seen in the rather highly structured Hadley, Ferrel, and Polar cells that usually govern the large - scale circulation in the troposphere.
If it's a product the ordinary
chaotic behavior of weather, why is chaos producing a steady (two steps forward one step back) rise in the Earth's temperature, instead of the patternless disturbance that we would expect from — chaos?
Overcoming
chaotic behavior of climate models.
I think some further explanation of the statement, «Observations show
chaotic behavior of the climate system on all time scales, including sudden regime transitions» is warranted.
Observations show
chaotic behavior of the climate system on all time scales, including sudden regime transitions, as we documented in Rial, J., R.A. Pielke Sr., M. Beniston, M. Claussen, J. Canadell, P. Cox, H. Held, N. de Noblet - Ducoudre, R. Prinn, J. Reynolds, and J.D. Salas, 2004: Nonlinearities, feedbacks and critical thresholds within the Earth's climate system.
All systems are fundamentally quantum systems, according Neill, but the means of describing in a quantum sense
the chaotic behavior of, say, air molecules in an evacuated room, remains limited.
A team of Dutch and Scottish researchers led by Simon Portegies Zwart (Leiden University) has found an explanation for
the chaotic behavior of the orbit of Halley's Comet.
Not exact matches
Sources who have seen parts
of it said the report chronicles an aggressive and fast - growing startup, resulting in a frequently
chaotic and «hostile work environment» without adequate systems in place to ensure that violations such as sexual harassment and retaliatory
behavior were dealt with professionally.
Mr. Carson is
of course quite right in implying that if we ask whether even local or limited time averages in a system with
chaotic trajectories are themselves completely ordered and regular, we find that they are not, and that over even greater times they, like individual trajectories themselves, are unpredictable; that is probably an essential aspect
of chaotic behavior.
It is also a fact that if one imposes a small perturbation
of some kind in a
chaotic dynamic system, its effects on the details
of a particular trajectory will not be predictable; but its effects on the averaged
behavior of both regular and
chaotic trajectories will be more predictable, evident, and broadly understandable in terms
of notions
of stress and response.
Whether or not Mr. Gore understands the difference between the notions
of climate and weather, it is important that we not obscure it by too facile generalizations about
chaotic and irregular
behavior.
The
behavior of these models turns out to be what are, in the mathematical sense,
chaotic.
The difference isn't just a matter
of terminology; Freud's id was a
chaotic zone that inspired barbaric, unpredictable
behavior, whereas the limbic system is tightly regulated, the origin
of rigid and inflexible emotional reactions.
From the bomb - induced firestorm in Hamburg, Germany during World War II to the most recent wildfires in the American West and elsewhere, Fox takes a detailed look at the dynamics
of catastrophic fires (two fires 10 miles apart can travel in opposite directions) and explains why new insights on plume
behavior may help researchers see beyond the
chaotic veneer
of a wildfire to discern underlying, more predictable forces that guide its
behavior.
The experiment shows the impressive ability
of a simple system to exhibit complex
behavior in the form
of chaos and nearly
chaotic phenomena: Despite the gradual changes
of air pressure the transitions between the different vibratory phenomena are abrupt.
The narcoleptic's strange
behavior is related to his or her highly fragmented,
chaotic REM sleep, a hallmark
of the disorder.
Avila and colleagues have brought a unified understanding to a wide class
of systems that exhibit
behavior ranging from regular to
chaotic.
At that point, the ordinarily
chaotic motion
of the electrons gives way to a more orderly collective
behavior governed by quantum mechanics.
They'll stoke sacrificial fire to a blaze by challenging some
of our most precious identities and longstanding
behaviors, which might make the first aspect
of this lunar cycle feel destabilizing and
chaotic.
This type
of chaotic behavior is observed in nature in the form
of weather forecasts.
This
chaotic behavior severely limits the ability
of the heart to pump sufficient blood to meet the body's needs.
Many
of my adult dog training
behavior cases have been traced back to an incident that occurred in a poorly supervised,
chaotic, puppy class.
Intuitively, I tend to agree with Prof. Pierrehumbert because the sudden and seemingly unpredictable events
of D - O type do assocaite, loosely speaking, with
chaotic behavior.
Averaging smoothes out day - to - day and year - to - year natural weather variability and extremes, removing much
of the
chaotic behavior, revealing any underlying long term trends in climate, such as a long term increase or decrease in temperature, or long term shifts in precipitation patterns.
Any state
of the art climate model (CGCM) under stationary forcing (plus annual cycle) will eventually demonstrate some sort
of chaotic behavior and / or will drift away from the realistic description
of the actual atmosphere.
Read the studies by John Wettlaufer
of Yale and others if you want to learn more about the
chaotic nature
of ice
behavior on short time scales.
when you can design a model that can even predict a temperature profile
of: a 4 degrees
of freedom, rotating sphere, that is warmed by the output
of a non-linear external heat source, and that is covered in a thermodynamic fluid that is constantly in motion with non-linear
chaotic Beyesian characteristics — and then throw in variability due to non-linearity
behavior of an element that can cause both positive and negative feed - backs due to the existence
of it's three phases; liquid, vapor and solid....
The strictly deterministic multidecadal climate that you insist upon flies in the face
of everything that is known about geophysical fluid dynamics vis a vis the discoveries by Lorenz
of chaotic behavior.
David — see my response to Tomas below regarding the quantitative importance
of chaotic behavior — important at some timescales but minor at others.
We can model
behavior (space and attractors) but we can not predict the future
of any
chaotic system.
They do not attempt to predict or reenact the exact internal
behavior of any preexisting system because a
chaotic system is, by its very nature, unable to be duplicated.
Even if one is optimistic that democracy and the rule
of law will spread in the Greater Middle East and that this will lead after a time to more peaceful and stable societies there, it is undeniable that there is substantial risk that for some time the region will be characterized by
chaotic change and unpredictable governmental
behavior.
My own take on it is that the
chaotic behavior can lead to a variety
of different states, but that these are ultimately unstable and will eventually tend to return toward the previous equilibrium.
The system is deterministically
chaotic — climate is a product
of emergent
behavior in the system.
Nobody expected that this model could predict the
behavior of a real thunderstorm — for one thing, it would be impossible to gather the data necessary to initialize it; for another, if thunderstorm
behavior is
chaotic, then no amount
of data would be enough to allow prediction beyond a short time horizon.
The very large scale and slowness are likely to reduce dissipation essentially leaving open the possibility
of essential
chaotic behavior.
Although it is generally not possible to predict a specific future state
of a
chaotic system (there is no telling what temperature it will be in Oregon on December 21 2012), it is still possible to make statistical claims about the
behavior of the system as a whole (it is very likely that Oregon's December 2012 temperatures will be colder than its July 2012 temperatures).
However the Arctic Oscillation is considered to be a result
of intrinsic atmospheric dynamics or
chaotic behavior and therefore is unpredictable.
(Part
of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Climate is an inherently
chaotic system, and as such its
behavior can not be predicted.
The solar activity on the long - term scale is found to be on the edge
of chaotic behavior.
The combination
of complex deterministic dynamics and stochastic disturbances may be similar to fundamental
chaotic behavior over long periods, but there are differences.
As an example the concept
of equilibrium climate sensitivity is well defined without chaos, but not, when
chaotic behavior dominates.
So most scientists — the snake - like Abraham and, a fortiori, the accident - prone Monbiot among them — have no more expertise in predicting or even understanding the strange
behavior of the complex, non-linear,
chaotic object that is the Earth's climate than the man on the Clapham omnibus.»
Of these, the most salient are probably ENSO, the AMO, the PDO, and solar irradiance, with the first three incorporating significant degrees of chaotic behavio
Of these, the most salient are probably ENSO, the AMO, the PDO, and solar irradiance, with the first three incorporating significant degrees
of chaotic behavio
of chaotic behavior.
The interest
of climate studies is to explore the boundaries between the stable and the
chaotic behaviors, and the expected effect
of different external events (GHG, volcanoes, Sun,...) on these boundaries, as well as
of the recent history (internal variability).
We often hear
of celebrities «going through a nervous breakdown» when there are reports
of erratic
behavior or a significant change in the way they present themselves, but we may also hear a coworker proclaim «I'm on the verge
of a nervous breakdown» when circumstances are particularly
chaotic at the workplace.
But, in Chicago and beyond, parents
of adopted children who exhibit severely challenging
behavior are also using the sad tale to speak out, opening a window into their
chaotic lives.