«A dynamical system such as the climate system, governed by nonlinear deterministic equations (see Nonlinearity), may exhibit erratic or
chaotic behaviour in the sense that very small changes in the initial state of the system in time lead to large and apparently unpredictable changes in its temporal evolution.
Not exact matches
In the section headed «The
chaotic», we see that the intuition that «deterministic rules of
behaviour give rise to completely predictable events» is violated everywhere, from weather systems to ecosystems.
«Watching nature red
in tooth and claw is certainly one way to see counterintuitive,
chaotic behaviour rear its ugly head,» writes Casti.
Back
in atmospheric physics,
chaotic behaviour is a highly - studied and well - understood phenomenon of all realistic global models, arising directly from the nonlinearity of the Navier - Stokes equations for fluid flow.
So, while neither any climate model nor any climate data set I'm aware of show any signs of
chaotic behaviour of climate (rather than weather), and the major climate variations we know of can all be understood without needing to resort to chaos, I simply find no reason to believe there is chaos
in climate evolution.
If you do not believe that system with
chaotic behaviour can be modeled
in this way then you have far better things to worry about.
The ocean - atmosphere climate system is certainly a complex system, and capable of some surprising
behaviours, but there is no evidence that it is
chaotic in the formal sense.
Each component is part of a complex and nonlinear mechanism that
in concert acts
in ways consistent with the
behaviour of a broad class of deterministically
chaotic systems.
This does not imply, however, that the
behaviour of non-linear
chaotic systems is entirely unpredictable, contrary to what is meant by «
chaotic»
in colloquial language.»
Rather than attack Tom you should see him as an example of climate scientists of all persuasions who are trying to analyse the
behaviour of complex
chaotic systems by the application of simplistic relationships studied
in a laboratory.
If you followed an individual molecule you would see an apparently
chaotic and random
behaviour in which it keeps jumping up and down among its quantum states.
The movement of pressure systems is irregular both
in latitude and longitude because of the underlying
chaotic behaviour of the weather systems but move they clearly do.
I think that this is a feature common to sciences where
chaotic, difficult to model variables (
in our case nothing less than human
behaviour) play a leading role.
However since such chaos - based variability can not be explicitly modeled, one can not be certain that recent warming is natural -
chaotic however much it might resemble climate
behaviour in past times.
In this formulation the collective
behaviour of the indices reflects the
behaviour of the system as a whole and enables the search for
behaviour expected of
chaotic systems.
Chaotic systems can be viewed as occurring when there are lots of splits
in behaviour.
I have just run a simple experiment to see whether I can predict the average
behaviour of one of the simplest parametric
chaotic systems - the logistic map: def trial (s, k): x = s # starting point for i
in range (10): x = k * (1 - x) * x print x for i
in range (90): x = k * (1 - x) * x print x This map takes x to k (1 - x) x.
My interests, more specifically, are related to: * The consequence of scaling
behaviour in non-linear coupled systems (both
chaotic and non-
chaotic) * The consequence of external forcings on such systems * The limitations of numerical methods used to analyse these systems, particularly with regard to initial conditions
These
chaotic and oppositional
behaviours occurred
in school presenting huge challenges to the staff and
in particular her class teacher, an NQT whose experience was limited and whose confidence was eroded.
Chaotic behaviour controls:
in such families there are random shifts
in behaviour controls through the entire spectrum from laissez - faire to rigid.
These aspects included father involvement
in play and care when children were younger, whether parents have a mutually supportive partner relationship, home organisation (the extent to which the home atmosphere is calm and ordered, rather than noisy and
chaotic), family ethos (the extent to which family relations and activities are mutually supportive and co-ordinated), and positive parenting (the extent to which parents are involved
in the child's activities and use praise and other positive reinforcement of the child's
behaviour).