Not exact matches
The fact that there has on any basis been little further warming over the course of the last 10 to 15 years over and above that which had already
occured by the mid / late 19902 suggests that recent extreme weather events are not the consequence of additional warming (there having been all but none these past 15 years) and therefore must be due to natural variability of weather events in an ever
changing and
chaotic world in which we live.
I always believed that the oceans were an important element in localised weather conditions over the short term but feel that relatively sudden shifts in climate
occur through external forcings such as volcanic eruptions, meteor strike and the effects of
changes in cosmic rays and sun spot activity, which are, unfortunately, all
chaotic by nature and unpredictable.
It is true that the model replications of past conditions are not perfect, which is to be expected given the
chaotic variations of the climate about its now -
changing baseline; however, the ensemble of model simulations has been tested against previously observed perturbations to climate (such as the response to volcanic eruptions) and overall they correspond well with what is observed to
occur.
And indeed, the
chaotic element implies that small
changes, say in greenhouse gases, can result in nonlinear
changes in outcomes — including very cold conditions that can and have
occurred in a matter of months to decades.