Read the AR4
chapter on attribution.
Dr. Curry == > I am still hung up on the fact that this is a «policy statement» intended for policy makers, a Summary of the scientific findings, I assume from the Science
chapter on Attribution.
There's a good
chapter on attribution of climate change.
Read the whole of
the chapter on attribution, and pay special attention to the discussion of fingerprints.
Not exact matches
AR5
Chapter 10 has a more extensive discussion
on the philosophy and methodology of detection and
attribution, but the general idea has not really changed from AR4.
The IPCC
chapter on «
Attribution» covers methods for working out contribution in excruciating detail.
Despite the many unresolved issues touched
on in this
chapter and discussed in more detail in
chapters 5 — 9, the progress that has been achieved over the past few years provides a basis for drawing some tentative conclusions concerning the nature of the observed differences between surface and upper air temperature trends, and their implications for the detection and
attribution of global climate change.break
Can we query the Lead Authors of the Science
Chapter re
Attribution on what their summary of the actual scientific findings were?
I recommend the
chapters on detection and
attribution in the IPCC TAR (Climate change: the Scientitifc basis - see sidebar)
There are around 20 different lines of evidence canvassed in the IPCC
chapter on detection and
attribution.
For the questions you raise, see e.g. Knutti and Hegerl's review of climate sensitivity; the IPCC
chapter on detection and
attribution; or Feulner and Rahmstorf
on the effect of a new grand minimum
on climate.