I guess that is where Ben Graham was getting rules like his «always sell
cigar butts if they appreciate by 50 %.»
Not exact matches
I believe that Prof Graham always suggested selling a
cigar -
butt after 2 years (ie,
if the price hadn't already increased by 50 %).
If you hold a special situation or
cigar butt for 6 - 12 months you can get a nice return, but hold them for 5 years and the returns will revert to the mean.
If you're a Graham - style value investor buying a low multiple,
cigar butt stock, your two improbable, extreme outcomes are: (1) bankruptcy or (2) the company's unexpected return to high growth.
One way to beat the tax issue is to «out - run» the tax hit through great returns, even
if it means higher turnover from a quantitative,
cigar butt approach.
On the other hand,
if the comparison is between Graham & Fisher, I would think, as coc has mentioned, good
cigar butts are hard to find (most of them have reasons to be undervalued).
I guess the lesson for me is that
if I'm buying a spread of
cigar butt companies — a la Walter Schloss or Ben Graham — I'm not willing to pay a higher average earnings multiple for a basket of high ROIC companies.
Not too many
cigar butts laying on the street just yet, but they may be here in the next few months
if your CAPE analysis is wrong — so
if there is a silver lining, it is that you will be back to evaluating fantastic investment opportunities and making money for your readers...
Remove the veil of emotions and I do not think it is doomsday -
if this was a «
cigar butt», this is only half way down - enough for a dozen more puffs, not just 1 - 2 IMHO.
If someone who starts as an investor reads the book, he or she will appreciate that there are many ways to do it, many ways to cook, and he or she will probably be able to, based on his or her temperament, identify and find some affinity with one of those investment styles, whether it's George Soros or Paul Tudor Jones or Ben Graham with the
cigar butts, or Philip Fisher.