exploring the intrinsic and forced variability and predictability of the general
circulation of the atmosphere on short to extended ranges;
Not exact matches
Gross says that the most important processes affecting day length are changes in the weather, especially unusual variations in the strength and direction
of the winds, which bring
on alterations in the global
circulation of the
atmosphere and ocean.
A new study has found that turbulent mixing in the deep waters
of the Southern Ocean, which has a profound effect
on global ocean
circulation and climate, varies with the strength
of surface eddies — the ocean equivalent
of storms in the
atmosphere — and possibly also wind speeds.
This means that an increase in temperature and the associated reorganization in ocean
circulation, for instance, had less
of an effect
on the marine ecosystem's ability to absorb CO2 from the
atmosphere and store it in the subsurface layers
of the ocean.
Broecker's articulation
of likely effects
of freshwater outbursts in the North Atlantic
on ocean
circulation and global climate (Broecker, 1990; Broecker et al., 1990) spurred quantitative studies with idealized ocean models (Stocker and Wright, 1991) and global
atmosphere — ocean models (Manabe and Stouffer, 1995; Rahmstorf 1995, 1996).
These emissions track the recombination
of atomic nitrogen and oxygen produced
on the dayside, and reveal the
circulation patterns
of the
atmosphere.
La Ninas, which feature cooler than normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific, impact the
circulation of the
atmosphere overhead in a way that tends to tamp down
on typhoon activity.
Robertson, A.W., 2001: Influence
of ocean -
atmosphere interaction
on the Arctic Oscillation in two general
circulation models.
Bjorn Stevens has a lot going
on: scientific member
of the Max Planck Society, director
of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, head
of the department
Atmosphere and the Earth System, professor at the University
of Hamburg, lead author
of an IPCC AR 5 Chapter 7, co-lead
of a WCRP Grand Challenge
on Clouds,
Circulation and Climate Sensitivity.
The Met Office Hadley Centre (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research) climate change model, Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3)[53], a coupled
atmosphere - ocean general
circulation model, was used for the time intervals 2020, 2050 and 2080 (note these date represent a time windows
of ten years either side
of the time interval date, i.e. 2020 is an average
of the years 2010 — 2029, 2050 for 2040 — 2059 and 2080 for 2070 — 2089), under three emission scenarios
of the IPCC Special Report
on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)[54]: scenario A1B (maximum energy requirements; emissions differentiated dependent
on fuel sources; balance across sources), A2A (high energy requirements; emissions less than A1 / Fl) and B2A (lower energy requirements; emissions greater than B1).
Includes detailed information
on the characteristics
of the
atmosphere, factors affecting wind, global atmospheric
circulation systems, global pressure patterns and Hadley, Ferrel and Polar cells.
(This genre
of one - dimensional and two - dimensional models lay between the rudimentary, often qualitative models covered in the essay
on Simple Models
of Climate and the elaborate three - dimensional General
Circulation Models
of the
Atmosphere.)
eg «These studies provide new insights
on the sensitivity and response
of meridional ocean
circulation to melt water inputs to the North Atlantic high latitudes (e.g., Bamberg et al., 2010; Irvali et al., 2012; Morley et al., 2011) and their potential role in amplifying small radiative variations into large a climate response through dynamic changes in ocean -
atmosphere interactions (e.g., Morely et al., 2011; Irvali et al., 2012; Morley et al., 2014).
A vast array
of thought has been brought to bear
on this problem, beginning with Arrhenius» simple energy balance calculation, continuing through Manabe's one - dimensional radiative - convective models in the 1960's, and culminating in today's comprehensive
atmosphere - ocean general
circulation models.
It stands to reason that the oceans haven't been that warm in a while but since the average temperature
of the whole mass
of water is so dependent
on circulation (it's only the surface temperature that's constrained by its interactions with the
atmosphere and space), I suppose a plausible history
of that particular value would be very hard to reconstruct.
Haarsma et al (2015) argue
on the basis
of model calculations that the weakening
of the AMOC will be the main cause
of changes in the summer
circulation of the
atmosphere over Europe in the future.
As noted in that post, RealClimate defines the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation («AMO») as, «A multidecadal (50 - 80 year timescale) pattern
of North Atlantic ocean -
atmosphere variability whose existence has been argued for based on statistical analyses of observational and proxy climate data, and coupled Atmosphere - Ocean General Circulation Model («AOGCM») si
atmosphere variability whose existence has been argued for based
on statistical analyses
of observational and proxy climate data, and coupled
Atmosphere - Ocean General Circulation Model («AOGCM») si
Atmosphere - Ocean General
Circulation Model («AOGCM») simulations.
GCMs are three - dimensional mathematical models
of the
atmosphere's
circulation that are run
on super-computers.
Observations and theory
of the general
circulation of the
atmosphere, with emphasis
on understanding physical mechanisms
The meeting will mainly cover the following themes, but can include other topics related to understanding and modelling the
atmosphere: ● Surface drag and momentum transport: orographic drag, convective momentum transport ● Processes relevant for polar prediction: stable boundary layers, mixed - phase clouds ● Shallow and deep convection: stochasticity, scale - awareness, organization, grey zone issues ● Clouds and
circulation feedbacks: boundary - layer clouds, CFMIP, cirrus ● Microphysics and aerosol - cloud interactions: microphysical observations, parameterization, process studies
on aerosol - cloud interactions ● Radiation:
circulation coupling; interaction between radiation and clouds ● Land -
atmosphere interactions: Role
of land processes (snow, soil moisture, soil temperature, and vegetation) in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction ● Physics - dynamics coupling: numerical methods, scale - separation and grey - zone, thermodynamic consistency ● Next generation model development: the challenge
of exascale, dynamical core developments, regional refinement, super-parametrization ● High Impact and Extreme Weather: role
of convective scale models; ensembles; relevant challenges for model development
As the deep oceans turn over,
on an eight - hundred - year cycle
of circulation, they will take the carbon dioxide now in the
atmosphere down into Davy Jones's Locker, where it will be
of no use to man, beast, or plant life.
This affects the ability
of these models to project the effects
of sea - ice changes
on the
atmosphere, deep - ocean
circulation and nutrient cycling.
I suspect the GCM's appear to do well
on a large scale because they model the broad brush
circulation of the
atmosphere, eg Hadley cell, coriolis etc quite well.
Would a drop in temperature
of the upper
atmosphere of say 500 °F have no effect
on surface temperatures or atmospheric
circulation patterns?
Sequestration rates,
on the other hand, changing the total
of CO2 in the
atmosphere, and hence the ppm concentration, has another timeframe entirely (regulated primarily by ocean
circulation exposing water that can absorb CO2), which you seem strangely unaware
of.
Mitchell JL, Pierrehumbert RT, Frierson DMW and Caballero R 2009: The impact
of methane thermodynamics
on seasonal convection and
circulation in a model Titan
atmosphere.
Associated with our work
on atmospheric
circulation patterns we are studying energy transport in the earth system and the transport
of water in the
atmosphere on different time and space scales.
The results obtained provide evidence that the mechanism
of solar activity and cosmic ray influences
on the lower
atmosphere circulation involves changes in the evolution
of the stratospheric polar vortex.
Between its Second and Third Assessment Reports, the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change elaborated long - term greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, in part to drive global ocean -
atmosphere general
circulation models, and ultimately to assess the urgency
of action to prevent the risk
of climatic change.
The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version
of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general
circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole -
atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect
on clouds.
But in a given model you can often find ways
of altering the model's climate sensitivity through the sub-grid convection and cloud schemes that affect cloud feedback, but you have to tread carefully because the cloud simulation exerts a powerful control
on the atmospheric
circulation, top -
of -
atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative flux patterns, the tropical precipitation distribution, etc..
CAS = Commission for Atmospheric Sciences CMDP = Climate Metrics and Diagnostic Panel CMIP = Coupled Model Intercomparison Project DAOS = Working Group
on Data Assimilation and Observing Systems GASS = Global Atmospheric System Studies panel GEWEX = Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment GLASS = Global Land -
Atmosphere System Studies panel GOV = Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) Ocean View JWGFVR = Joint Working Group
on Forecast Verification Research MJO - TF = Madden - Julian Oscillation Task Force PDEF = Working Group
on Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting PPP = Polar Prediction Project QPF = Quantitative precipitation forecast S2S = Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project SPARC = Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate TC = Tropical cyclone WCRP = World Climate Research Programme WCRP Grand Science Challenges • Climate Extremes • Clouds,
Circulation and Climate Sensitivity • Melting Ice and Global Consequences • Regional Sea - Ice Change and Coastal Impacts • Water Availability WCRP JSC = Joint Scientific Committee WGCM = Working Group
on Coupled Modelling WGSIP = Working Group
on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction WWRP = World Weather Research Programme YOPP = Year
of Polar Prediction
How do theories for the Hadley
circulation and for atmospheric macroturbulence based
on dry dynamics need to be modified in the presence
of moist processes, which alter, among other things, the effective static stability
of the
atmosphere?
Changing weather and climate — The causes, consequences
of and responses to extreme weather conditions and natural weather hazards, recognising their changing distribution in time and space and drawing
on an understanding
of the global
circulation of the
atmosphere.
I have in the past (1970s) had a small part in reviving the field
of sun - weather - climate research, see e.g. — Solar Magnetic Sector Structure: Relation to
Circulation of the Earth's
Atmosphere Wilcox, John M.; Scherrer, Philip H.; Svalgaard, Leif; Roberts, Walter Orr; Olson, Roger H. Science, Volume 180, Issue 4082, pp. 185 - 186 — Influence
of Solar Magnetic Sector Structure
on Terrestrial Atmospheric Vorticity.
Unresolved issues that will be addressed in a series
of forthcoming studies include the effects
of ocean dynamics
on the predictability
of low - frequency
atmosphere and land variability and the feedback
of soil moisture variations
on atmospheric temperatures and
circulation (e.g., Rowntree and Bolton 1983; Atlas et al. 1993; Koster et al. 2000).
A change in ocean heat content can also alter patterns
of ocean
circulation, which can have far - reaching effects
on global climate conditions, including changes to the outcome and pattern
of meteorological events such as tropical storms, and also temperatures in the northern Atlantic region, which are strongly influenced by currents that may be substantially reduced with CO2 increase in the
atmosphere.
The influence
of reduced solar forcing (grand solar minimum or geoengineering scenarios like solar radiation management)
on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation (AMOC) is assessed in an ensemble
of atmosphere — ocean — chemistry — climate model simulations.
Whether the large - scale thermodynamic environment and atmospheric static stability (often measured by Convective Available Potential Energy, CAPE) becomes more favourable for tropical storms depends
on how changes in atmospheric
circulation, especially subsidence, affect the static stability
of the
atmosphere, and how the wind shear changes.
Thus an understanding
of the mechanisms distributing water vapor through the
atmosphere and
of water vapor's effects
on atmospheric radiation and
circulation is vital to estimating long - term changes in climate.
Abstract We study trends and temporal correlations in the monthly mean temperature data
of Prague and Melbourne derived from four state -
of - the - art general
circulation models that are currently used in studies
of anthropogenic effects
on the
atmosphere: GFDL - R15 - a, CSIRO - Mk2, ECHAM4 / OPYC3 and HADCM3.
1) The enhancement to the hydrological cycle 2) increased advection
of energy toward the polar regions, both by ocean currents and
of course the
atmosphere (there is a large team studying the expanding IPWP and the effects
on atmospheric
circulation right now).
It was not for practical weather prediction that meteorologists wanted to push
on to model the entire general
circulation of the global
atmosphere.
The forcing aspect
of the indirect effect at the top
of the
atmosphere is discussed in Chapter 2, while the processes that involve feedbacks or interactions, like the «cloud lifetime effect» [6], the «semi-direct effect» and aerosol impacts
on the large - scale
circulation, convection, the biosphere through nutrient supply and the carbon cycle, are discussed here.
To be clear, El Niño is a tropical Pacific phenomenon, even though it represents the strongest year - to - year meteorological fluctuation
on the planet and disrupts the
circulation of the global
atmosphere.