While the observed circulation trends project most strongly onto the third Z850 PC, the second Z850 PC is congruent with larger
circulation trends in the western Amundsen and eastern Ross Sea (Fig. 6e).
The observational and model results broadly support our hypothesis, but suggest that further work is needed to diagnose the causes of the high - latitude
circulation trends in models and observations.
To confirm that our interpretations are not dependent on the reanalysis dataset used, we also examined
circulation trends in the ERA - 40 (Uppala et al. 2005) and JRA - 25 (Onogi et al. 2007) reanalysis datasets, and found similar results.
The TOGA ensemble correctly placed the maximum high - latitude
circulation trend in the South Pacific sector, but overall simulated too zonally symmetric of a response compared with observations.
Not exact matches
These risks and uncertainties include competition and other economic conditions including fragmentation of the media landscape and competition from other media alternatives; changes
in advertising demand,
circulation levels and audience shares; the Company's ability to develop and grow its online businesses; the Company's reliance on revenue from printing and distributing third - party publications; changes
in newsprint prices; macroeconomic
trends and conditions; the Company's ability to adapt to technological changes; the Company's ability to realize benefits or synergies from acquisitions or divestitures or to operate its businesses effectively following acquisitions or divestitures; the Company's success
in implementing expense mitigation efforts; the Company's reliance on third - party vendors for various services; adverse results from litigation, governmental investigations or tax - related proceedings or audits; the Company's ability to attract and retain employees; the Company's ability to satisfy pension and other postretirement employee benefit obligations; changes
in accounting standards; the effect of labor strikes, lockouts and labor negotiations; regulatory and judicial rulings; the Company's indebtedness and ability to comply with debt covenants applicable to its debt facilities; the Company's ability to satisfy future capital and liquidity requirements; the Company's ability to access the credit and capital markets at the times and
in the amounts needed and on acceptable terms; and other events beyond the Company's control that may result
in unexpected adverse operating results.
This strategy runs counter to the
trend of recent cutbacks
in newsroom staffs, since it does require that media outlets put reporters on the ground, but it may spread if it turns out to be effective
in driving traffic to media websites and generating enough advertising revenue to offset declines
in print
circulation.
Circulation reached record - breaking highs
in 2003, and
trends continue
in 2004.
Their newest investigation analyzed recent events
in chikungunya virus evolution that will aid
in predicting future
trends in transmission and
circulation that determine epidemic potential.
The researchers looked closely at
trends in cerebral blood
circulation (perfusion) and cold temperature strategies used to protect the heart and brain during surgery.
Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves
in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts of past changes match observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes
in ocean
circulation or land use
trends, nor any subsequent changes
in cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric
circulation.
A study relating to this — «Our study confirms many changes seen
in upper Arctic Ocean
circulation in the 1990s were mostly decadal
in nature, rather than
trends caused by global warming,» said Morison.
It should also be kept
in mind that their analysis involved too short time series (24 years) for a proper local
trend estimation, as local
circulation variations (e.g. the North Atlantic Oscillation), the annual cycle, and inter-annual variations, most likely will make the analysis more difficult.
Our general
circulation model simulations, which take into account the recently observed widespread occurrence of vertically extended atmospheric brown clouds over the Indian Ocean and Asia3, suggest that atmospheric brown clouds contribute as much as the recent increase
in anthropogenic greenhouse gases to regional lower atmospheric warming
trends.
Most of the focus has been on the global mean temperature
trend in the models and observations (it would certainly be worthwhile to look at some more subtle metrics — rainfall, latitudinal temperature gradients, Hadley
circulation etc. but that's beyond the scope of this post).
«If these
trends in circulation are legit, it calls for a greater understanding of underlying processes driving them,» he said.
«It's important to determine where we believe that some of the recent
trends in circulation could potentially be linked with climate change, rather than just natural variability,» Ted Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading
in the U.K., said
in an email.
«Within each budget, selectors at each location respond to
circulation trends identified through ILS reports as well as customer requests and experience with
in - house use.»
Our online panels reflected this
trend, with most of the library staff who responded to our online questionnaire reporting that e-book
circulation at their library had more than doubled
in the past year (compared with the previous year).
Although
circulation is up at TPL
in pretty much all areas of print materials, one notable exception is
in mass market paperbacks ---- the same
trend that has been reported by the Association of American Publishers and the Book Industry Study group.1 At TPL, we are also seeing some decline
in the use of compact discs, albeit to a lesser extent (1.2 million borrows per year).
In general it's recognised that prediction of the so far unpredictable phenomena (El Nino's, La Nina's, the fine details of ocean
circulation oscillations, volcanos and any solar variation outwith the 11 year solar cycle) that provide short term modulation of any
trend is likley to be unfruitful at present.
Some people think that the AMO is related to the atlantic thermohaline
circulation, and that the shifting of heat North and South that is associated with its variations could cause some of the recent warming
trend in the north Atlantic.
An INTAS - funded research project has been initiated to study the possible
trends in snow cover during the last century over Northern Eurasia and the relation between snow cover variability and variations
in atmospheric
circulation patterns.
~ Our study confirms many changes seen
in upper Arctic Ocean
circulation in the 1990s were mostly decadal
in nature, rather than
trends caused by global warming,» / / www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2007-131 [ANDY REVKIN comments: That's precisely what I wrote
in the Science Times feature on Arctic ice
in September (link is
in the post).
Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves
in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts of past changes match observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes
in ocean
circulation or land use
trends, nor any subsequent changes
in cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric
circulation.
Vecchi et al. compared the observed
trend in the Walker
circulation between 1861 and 1992 to that yielded by simulations from the GFDL CM2 general
circulation model, run with and without anthropogenic forcing.
Most of the focus has been on the global mean temperature
trend in the models and observations (it would certainly be worthwhile to look at some more subtle metrics — rainfall, latitudinal temperature gradients, Hadley
circulation etc. but that's beyond the scope of this post).
Here we analyze a series of climate model experiments along with observational data to show that the recent warming
trend in Atlantic sea surface temperature and the corresponding trans - basin displacements of the main atmospheric pressure centers were key drivers of the observed Walker
circulation intensification, eastern Pacific cooling, North American rainfall
trends and western Pacific sea - level rise.
We will be watching future
trends in the Walker
circulation with bated breath.
In spite of recent progress in determining the climatic impacts of the Pacific trade wind acceleration, the cause of this pronounced trend in atmospheric circulation remains unknow
In spite of recent progress
in determining the climatic impacts of the Pacific trade wind acceleration, the cause of this pronounced trend in atmospheric circulation remains unknow
in determining the climatic impacts of the Pacific trade wind acceleration, the cause of this pronounced
trend in atmospheric circulation remains unknow
in atmospheric
circulation remains unknown.
Using the known amplification of the solar cycle (and presumably the long term
trend)
in the UV band, allowing stratospheric temperatures and
circulation patterns to adjust and including the direct radiative forcings from the sun and volcanoes, we found that it gave temperature anomalies and spatial patterns that were
in fair agreement with the observations (Shindell et al, 2003).
«A fundamental new
trend in atmospheric and ocean
circulation patterns
in the Pacific Northwest appears to have begun, scientists say, and apparently is expanding its scope beyond Oregon waters... This year for the first time, the effect of the low - oxygen zone is also being seen
in coastal waters off Washington,»
In fact, Cane et al (1997) argue that the tendency toward increased SST gradient is precisely what is seen if one uses a robust trend analysis to decrease sensitivity of the trend analysis to outliers such as the very large 1982/1983 El Nino event (this event, and the equally large 1997/1998 El Nino event, greatly influence the estimate of a weakening trend of the Walker circulation in Vecchi et al
In fact, Cane et al (1997) argue that the tendency toward increased SST gradient is precisely what is seen if one uses a robust
trend analysis to decrease sensitivity of the
trend analysis to outliers such as the very large 1982/1983 El Nino event (this event, and the equally large 1997/1998 El Nino event, greatly influence the estimate of a weakening
trend of the Walker
circulation in Vecchi et al
in Vecchi et al).
There is a
trend in architecture to try and actively promote health and exercise; The New York Times Building has prominent, bright stairs for
circulation; Tom Mayne's San Francisco Federal Building's elevators stop on every
As noted above, most earlier hindcasts of 20th century climate as well as current IPCC AR4 runs [Miller et al., 2006; Knutson et al., 2006] do not reproduce the observed
trends over recent decades
in the AO component of the
circulation, and thus do not capture the intensification of warming
trends that has been observed over Northern Europe and Asia.
The available data are insufficient to say if the changes
in O2 are caused by natural variability or are
trends that are likely to persist
in the future, but they do indicate that large - scale changes
in ocean physics influence natural biogeochemical cycles, and thus the cycles of O2 and CO2 are likely to undergo changes if ocean
circulation changes persist
in the future.
Our general
circulation model simulations, which take into account the recently observed widespread occurrence of vertically extended atmospheric brown clouds over the Indian Ocean and Asia, suggest that atmospheric brown clouds contribute as much as the recent increase
in anthropogenic greenhouse gases to regional lower atmospheric warming
trends.
For the entire Northern Hemisphere, there is evidence of an increase
in both storm frequency and intensity during the cold season since 1950,1 with storm tracks having shifted slightly towards the poles.2, 3 Extremely heavy snowstorms increased
in number during the last century
in northern and eastern parts of the United States, but have been less frequent since 2000.11,15 Total seasonal snowfall has generally decreased
in southern and some western areas, 16 increased
in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes region, 16,17 and not changed
in other areas, such as the Sierra Nevada, although snow is melting earlier
in the year and more precipitation is falling as rain versus snow.18 Very snowy winters have generally been decreasing
in frequency
in most regions over the last 10 to 20 years, although the Northeast has been seeing a normal number of such winters.19 Heavier - than - normal snowfalls recently observed
in the Midwest and Northeast U.S.
in some years, with little snow
in other years, are consistent with indications of increased blocking (a large scale pressure pattern with little or no movement) of the wintertime
circulation of the Northern Hemisphere.5 However, conclusions about
trends in blocking have been found to depend on the method of analysis, 6 so the assessment and attribution of
trends in blocking remains an active research area.
Current work1 has provided evidence of the increase
in frequency and intensity of winter storms, with the storm tracks shifting poleward, 2,3 but some areas have experienced a decrease
in winter storm frequency.4 Although there are some indications of increased blocking (a large - scale pressure pattern with little or no movement) of the wintertime
circulation of the Northern Hemisphere, 5 the assessment and attribution of
trends in blocking remain an active research area.6 Some recent research has provided insight into the connection of global warming to tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.7, 8
Romanski, J., and S. Hameed, 2015: The impact of
trends in the large scale atmospheric
circulation on Mediterranean surface turbulent heat fluxes.
Boreal winter - NINO's role
in the wave's low - frequency component of the surface avg T (NHT) is slim and not similarly phased; although the anomaly
trend of NINO (low - frequency component) coincides closely with NHT, as does the anomaly
trend of winds related to Pacific
circulations (among them, PDO).
Some scientists have sought comfort by noting that extrapolating
trends in atmospheric CO2 show that the northern Gulf Stream
circulation might not shut down for another 400 years.
The causes of the large
trends in atmospheric
circulation and summer SST are not known.»
Apart from such variations there are however also concerns about instability, notably a risk of a weakening
trend in AMOC, which could affect the entire thermohaline
circulation and for instance slow down [or theoretically stop] the Gulf Stream.
The observed heat and salinity
trends are linked to changes
in ocean
circulation and other manifestations of global change such as oxygen and carbon system parameters (see Section 5.4).
Although the NAO is the dominant pattern of atmospheric
circulation variability, accounting for about half of the total winter SLP variance on both interannual and multi-decadal time scales, other large - scale structures of internal
circulation variability will also undoubtedly contribute to uncertainty
in future climate
trends.
These NAO - induced «book - ends» of future climate
trends are very similar to those depicted
in the individual simulations shown earlier (Fig. 1), but instead of case studies, they are based on the dominant structure of internal atmospheric
circulation variability across all 40 ensemble members superimposed upon the forced response.
Was this change part of a
trend that might lead to a major change
in the Atlantic
circulation, or due to natural variability that will reverse
in the future, or is it an artifact of the limited observations?
These different SAT
trends occur despite the fact that both simulations were subject to the identical radiative forcing and were conducted with the same model, highlighting the role of internal atmospheric
circulation variability
in any single model run.
The global warming
trend or cooling
trend in the air, initiated by the oceans, then leads on to all the variations
in both
circulations that seem to be causing so much puzzlement.
They concluded, «ocean pH does not simply reflect atmospheric CO2
trends but rather that
circulation / biogeochemical changes account for > 90 % of pH variability
in the Sargasso Sea and more variability
in the last century than would be predicted from anthropogenic uptake of CO2 alone.»