This certainly doesn't look like a simple case of the white working
class supporting UKIP.
Not exact matches
It is safe Labour territory, but even here
Ukip is expected to capitalise on strong
support among working
class voters in the C2DE category to come in second, ahead of the Conservatives.
More worrying still was the haemorrhaging of votes to
UKIP and the stabilisation of working
class support for the Conservatives.
But it is equally important to win
support from SNP voters in Scotland and
UKIP supporters in working
class parts of England.
At present Labour is losing
support to the SNP in Scotland, to
UKIP in its English and Welsh heartlands and, in the light of Corbyn's half - hearted
support for Remain, may well see the
support of disappointed middle -
class pro-Europeans shift towards the Liberal Democrats (who have pledged to go into any future election committed to reversing the decision to leave the European Union).
Employers (
class 1.1), self - employed (4) and lower supervisory (5) and routine manual workers (7) have the highest levels of
support to
UKIP.
Certainly, Labour constituencies see fairly high levels of
UKIP support (notably at the recent Heywood & Middleton by - election), suggesting there is credence to the argument that Labour is losing its disaffected traditional and typically working
class voters to
UKIP.
The idea that
UKIP are picking up old Labour supporters is also not
supported by evidence on the social
class of their intended voters.
The «blue Labour» thinkers who have long recognised the threat
Ukip posits to white working -
class support will want a more socially conservative stance, particularly on immigration and Europe, but adopting such a position could put at risk the gains Labour have made with its «London core».
Let me suggest that this because the media uses a simple insulting formula that goes something like, Labour are a Working
class party - The North is Working Class - UKIP are a Bit Racist - Racism is only a working class thing - therefor UKIP must have taken most of its support from Lab
class party - The North is Working
Class - UKIP are a Bit Racist - Racism is only a working class thing - therefor UKIP must have taken most of its support from Lab
Class -
UKIP are a Bit Racist - Racism is only a working
class thing - therefor UKIP must have taken most of its support from Lab
class thing - therefor
UKIP must have taken most of its
support from Labour!.
Ukip is now building
support in traditional working -
class Labour areas.
The recent book Revolt on the Right (co-written by Robert Ford) showed that
Ukip draw their
support from a very clear demographic: the «left - behind» electorate of older, working -
class white voters with few educational qualifications.
UKIP is clearly already proven to be a party capable of attracting a large working
class base of
support.
Its core
support comes from a mix of financially insecure working -
class men, who were traditionally loyal to Labour but who feel they have been «left behind» in modern Britain as mainstream parties chased the middle -
class vote, and strategic Conservative sympathisers, who are keen to express hostility to the European Union but much less loyal to
UKIP in general elections.
It took observers far longer than it should have to recognise that the bulk of
Ukip's
support was coming not from middle -
class Tories in the Shires but the disillusioned working -
classes who might have once voted Labour.
Bassetlaw MP John Mann said that white working
class voters and trade unionists had already deserted the party for
Ukip, because of Labour's
support for immigration.
He argues convincingly that Blairism was predicated on Labour having a monopoly on working
class support, but now that
support has broken, partly to the SNP and partly to
Ukip.
«Strategic defectors» are voters who
support Ukip at European elections but return to the Conservatives at general elections: they are older, financially comfortable, middle -
class men with Conservative sympathies, socially conservative Eurosceptics who are motivated principally by their desire to send a message to the Conservatives.
First, we found that locally
Ukip really is gunning for Labour: targeting working -
class areas where Labour is locally dominant in the hope of cementing
support among blue - collar voters, and forcing Miliband to promise an EU referendum.
And the winner of last night's by - election in Rochester,
UKIP's Mark Reckless, said the large number of Labour voters who switched their
support to him showed «the radical tradition, which has stood and spoken for the working
class, has found a new home in
UKIP».
In his victory speech, Mark Reckless said the large number of Labour voters who switched their
support to him showed «the radical tradition, which has stood and spoken for the working
class, has found a new home in
UKIP»