What's the issue over statements that
climate change predictions DO NOT include some 15 years of data?
Not exact matches
Because even if the
predictions don't turn out to be correct — if hurricanes don't grow larger and carry more rain — if there's sea level rise due to
climate change, these storms become more devastating.
These are just the latest in many dire
predictions about the results of
climate change if humanity doesn't start making some major
changes to our consumption habits.
The impact of these results is wide - reaching, and Dr Pullen suggests that it may even
change how we think about global
climate data: «Climate models need to incorporate genetic elements because at present most do not, and their predictions would be much improved with a better understanding of plant carbon demand.
climate data: «
Climate models need to incorporate genetic elements because at present most do not, and their predictions would be much improved with a better understanding of plant carbon demand.
Climate models need to incorporate genetic elements because at present most
do not, and their
predictions would be much improved with a better understanding of plant carbon demand.»
«Understanding how
climate change will affect food productivity and access is vital; yet,
predictions of how drought may affect conflict may be overstated in Africa and
do not get to the root of the problem.
The
climate models aren't really good enough in their representation of present - day circulation to give you much confidence in the specifics of their
predictions [so that you could use them to
do a cost - benefit analysis for example], but the risk of widespread
change is still there.
I find it confusing that the NWS
Climate Prediction Center issues «climate» outlooks which have nothing to do with the subject of climate change or global w
Climate Prediction Center issues «
climate» outlooks which have nothing to do with the subject of climate change or global w
climate» outlooks which have nothing to
do with the subject of
climate change or global w
climate change or global warming.
pg xiii This Policymakers Summary aims to bring out those elements of the main report which have the greatest relevance to policy formulation, in answering the following questions • What factors determine global
climate 7 • What are the greenhouse gases, and how and why are they increasing 9 • Which gases are the most important 9 • How much
do we expect the
climate to
change 9 • How much confidence
do we have in our
predictions 9 • Will the
climate of the future be very different 9 • Have human activities already begun to
change global
climate 9 How much will sea level rise 9 • What will be the effects on ecosystems 9 • What should be
done to reduce uncertainties, and how long will this take 9 This report is intended to respond to the practical needs of the policymaker.
DeBuys finds that things will be fine for the 3.5 million people who currently depend on this water for daily use as long as (1)
predictions of
climate change models prove groundless, (2) the kind of droughts documented by tree rings and other records of past
climate disruptions don't occur, and (3) the cities of central Arizona don't grow so much that they consume their agricultural buffer, their main protection against uncertain years ahead.
And those
predictions didn't take
changes in rainfall pattern with
climate into account.
All in all the science of hurricanes
does appear to be much more fun and interesting than the average
climate change issue, as there is a debate, a «fight» between different hypothesis,
predictions compared to near - future observations, and all that
does not always get pre-eminence in the exchanges about models.
What
do local
climate change activists think about McPherson and his
predictions?
What are the most important
predictions that we can make about
climate change in the next century, what
do we know for certain?
Clearly, the causes of
climate change over the last millennium have very little to
do with attribution of modern warming, or for future
prediction.
But before the deniers crow that climatologists don't know what they're
doing, note this well: The
predictions made using these models almost always seem to underestimate the effects of
climate change.
Not only has the IPCC
done remarkably well in projecting future global surface temperature
changes thus far, but it has also performed far better than the few
climate contrarians who have put their money where their mouth is with their own
predictions.
See, we didn't get that the failed warming
predictions caused a rebranding to «
climate change.»
But yes, if you had bothered to read the editorial, you would see that he is very explicit about showing that modeling
does an extremely poor job of making specific
predictions about the impacts of
climate changes.
Projections of these
changes of risk using models in which
changes in the background
climate are incorporated, and applied using models that
do a fair job at the short time scale (like high resolution weather
prediction, or hydrological discharge, or...) is thus a viable procedure, and
does yield added value.
I don't believe that we can make long - term
predictions about
climate change when we are still unable to make solid
predictions about the short term, dynamic behavior of the electric power grid.
The researchers used recent historical data and not
climate modeling, so the study
does not make any future
predictions, but Swain says the findings appear to be consistent with other
climate research that reveals there is little
change in average precipitation, but an increase in the amount of very wet or very dry periods.
Chief among those is what policy makers will actually
do with a document that voices concern over
climate change with even stronger language than before, and with greater resolution on
predictions about global sea - level rise.
Instead of acknowledging their hypothesis was wrong because their
predictions were wrong and the evidence didn't match their claims the IPCC moved the goalposts from global warming to
climate change.
I'll make one
prediction: If Obama
does not veto the Keystone XL Pipeline after talking the talk on
climate change, green groups will go ballistic (even though, Cato Institute scholar Chip Knappenberger calculates, full - throttle operation of the Keystone XL Pipeline would add an inconsequential 0.0001 °C / yr to global temperatures).
Um, in nearly all of the descriptions I've read warming of the lower atmosphere an cooling of the stratosphere is the
prediction if GHGs have anything to
do with the
climate change.
Why don't you say that the IPCC
changed its
prediction from 0.3 C per decade to 0.2 C per decade in 1995 [which it
did] when it realised its estimation of
climate sensitivity [among other things] was too high?
«All the organizational work for weather
prediction did little to connect the scattered specialists in diverse fields who took an interest in
climate change.
There's still a lot of work to be
done in making useful
predictions, however, which is why I think it's perfectly reasonable to say both «anthropogenic
climate change is a thing» and «we still shouldn't take any drastic actions to combat it until more is known about the consequences».
A rational public and private sector response to the threat of storm damage in a
changing climate must therefore acknowledge scientific uncertainties that are likely to persist beyond the time at which decisions will need to be made, focus more on the risks and benefits of planning for the worst case scenarios, and recognize that the combination of societal trends and the most confident aspects of
climate change predictions makes future economic impacts substantially more likely than
does either one alone.
DAGW «consensus» believers apparently
do not like your analyses, because they are based on actual observations of past
climate trends rather than on model
predictions of future
climate changes, which myopically fixate on the human - induced aspect only.
She
did more than talk about
climate change: she set up the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, now with a worldwide reputation for it
climate change: she set up the Hadley Centre for
Climate Prediction and Research, now with a worldwide reputation for it
Climate Prediction and Research, now with a worldwide reputation for its work.
Many of us became skeptics not because we didn't believe that
climate change was happening, but because the theories, effects, and
predictions were so badly exaggerated that the overall fabric being woven became more untrue than true.
Do you at least agree that the better analogy for
climate prediction is seasonal
change than weather patterns?
Until we
do, we can not make good
predictions about future
climate change.»
But with the state of flux that
climate change science seems to be in when it comes to hurricane frequency and intensity
predictions, is there really a solid basis yet for
doing this?
Until we
do, we can not make good
predictions about future
climate change... Over the last several hundred thousand years,
climate change has come mainly in discrete jumps that appear to be related to
changes in the mode of thermohaline circulation.»
At timescales beyond a season, available ensembles of
climate models
do not provide the basis for probabilistic
predictions of regional
climate change.
Former global - warming alarmist and «Gaia Guru» Dr. James Lovelock is once again
doing combat with his erstwhile comrades in the «green» movement, dishing out scorn for the United Nations» Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), which recently issued its latest dire global - warming
predictions.
I don't want to come across as a wet blanket, but just as a general comment on
prediction (weather,
climate, or otherwise): If a
prediction is made and believed then people will act on that
prediction in order to
change the predicted future in some manner if it is in their interest and power to
do so.
I find it confusing that the NWS
Climate Prediction Center issues «climate» outlooks which have nothing to do with the subject of climate change or global w
Climate Prediction Center issues «
climate» outlooks which have nothing to do with the subject of climate change or global w
climate» outlooks which have nothing to
do with the subject of
climate change or global w
climate change or global warming.
The real theme of George's column is that
climate scientists
do not understand enough to make
predictions about future
climate change, and therefore their warnings are primarily merely ploys («unsubstantiated by fact», to quote George) to increase their own research funding.
They're not
doing what they should be
doing in a time of global crisis... then they fired me for wanting to
do what I believed was my job — to evaluate and take account of
climate changes on the hydrology within the NC states of the U.S. for modeling and flood
prediction purposes.
But the point was: It is wrong to suggest that real - world development - related policy decisions are routinely based on very precise
predictions of future problems, and that we can not act on
climate change because the models
do not meet these alleged standards.
The subhead, Why scientists find
climate change so hard to predict, is even worse as it tars current scientists with the same brush, yet the article doesn't address current
prediction challenges in any useful way.
In their
prediction of future
climate, many IPCC models
did not consider the expected ozone recovery and its potential impacts on
climate change.
Dude didn't even mention
climate change; it was all about dissing NOAA's hurricane
predictions.