Here, in part I, I'll review some of the basic processes that are important in determining
the climate effects of aerosols, focusing in particular on their formation.
Not exact matches
The
effect also illustrates one proposal for so - called geoengineering — the deliberate, large - scale manipulation
of the planetary environment — that would use various means to create such sulfuric acid
aerosols in the stratosphere to reflect sunlight and thereby hopefully forestall catastrophic
climate change.
Aerosol particles have different sizes, as well as chemical and physical properties, all
of which determine their
climate effects.
Mission leaders were relieved and eager to begin their studies
of cloud and haze
effects, which «constitute the largest uncertainties in our models
of future
climate — that's no exaggeration,» says Jens Redemann, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Ames Research Center in Mountain View, California, and the principal investigator for ObseRvations
of Aerosols above CLouds and their IntEractionS (ORACLES).
Geoengineering — the intentional manipulation
of the
climate to counter the
effect of global warming by injecting
aerosols artificially into the atmosphere — has been mooted as a potential way to deal with
climate change.
Overall, improving our understanding
of one
of the largest natural
aerosol sources is critical if we are to understand the
effects of human - made
aerosols on
climate,» says Matt Salter.
«We've shown that under clean and humid conditions, like those that exist over the ocean and some land in the tropics, tiny
aerosols have a big impact on weather and
climate and can intensify storms a great deal,» said Fan, an expert on the
effects of pollution on storms and weather.
Erickson and his colleagues used a computer model
of Earth's
climate to simulate the
effect of adding sulphate
aerosol to the atmosphere above the industrialised regions
of the globe (Geophysical Research Letters, vol 22, p 2017).
Similar scandals erupted over the
effects of scores
of industrial applications, ranging from sulfur dioxide and acid rain, to certain
aerosols and the hole in the ozone layer, to leaded gas and cognitive impairment, to the granddaddy
of them all, fossil fuels and global
climate change.
The theory
of dangerous
climate change is based not just on carbon dioxide warming but on positive and negative feedback
effects from water vapor and phenomena such as clouds and airborne
aerosols from coal burning.
The information could also feed into
climate models to help understand the
effects of clouds and
aerosols on Earth's energy balance.
Scientists believe that
aerosols exert an influence on
climate roughly equal to that
of greenhouse gases, but the current estimate
of aerosols»
climate effect carries a large margin
of error.
«There is a link between the chemistry that goes on in this type
of air motion and the subsequent
effects on the trace gases and
aerosols in the atmosphere that ultimately impact
climate.»
However, he says, «
Aerosol effects on
climate are one
of the main uncertainties in
climate models.
«Scientists have talked about Arctic melting and albedo decrease for nearly 50 years,» said Ramanathan, a distinguished professor
of climate and atmospheric sciences at Scripps who has previously conducted similar research on the global dimming
effects of aerosols.
Jack added: «Dust is one
of the most important
aerosols for both the
climate and the biology
of an environment, and so understanding the amount
of dust produced, and the distance and direction it travels is vital to allow us to understand its
effect better.»
Among the most uncertain elements in
climate models are the
effects of aerosols and their interactions with clouds — just the things involved in albedo modification — she says.
In the new work, published in Geophysical Research Letters late last month, researchers modified an established
climate model to gauge the
effects of varying
aerosol amount and size.
What's more, according to Tim Bates
of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), «there's a very wide range
of sizes [for
aerosol particles], and the
effect that the particle is going to have on
climate is going to be very dependent on its size, which makes it trickier.»
The latter type
of sensors, Robock notes, could directly measure the size distribution
of aerosols, which could help researchers better model their
effects on
climate.
Past calculations
of the cooling
effect of aerosols have been inferred from «missing» global warming predicted by
climate models.
This is one
of the best examples
of why
aerosol mixing state is so important for modeling the
effect of aerosols on
climate.
Now if this was the 1980s they might have had a point, but the fact that
aerosols are an important
climate forcing, have a net cooling
effect on
climate and, in part, arise from the same industrial activities that produce greenhouse gases, has been part
of mainstream science for 30 years.
The multi-scale
aerosol -
climate model, an extension
of a multi-scale modeling framework, examined specific
aerosol - cloud interactions and their
effects on the Earth's energy budget, one
of the toughest
climate forecasting problems.
Sally, who was nominated by Dr. Beat Schmid, Associate Director, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, was honored for her exceptional contribution in the field
of atmospheric science, particularly in her efforts to improve understanding
of the radiative
effect of clouds and
aerosols on the Earth's atmosphere and their representation in
climate models.
An adjustment is necessary because as
climate models are continually evaluated against observations evidence has become emerged that the strength
of their
aerosol - cloud interactions are too strong (i.e. the models» «
aerosol indirect
effect» is larger than inferred from observations).
This mis - representation and can have significant ramifications for estimating the direct and indirect
effects of aerosols on
climate.
Fascinatingly, the book from the mid-70s said that there was one
climate scientist — Wally Broecker - who predicted that the greenhouse warming was on the verge
of overtaking the
aerosol cooling
effects and that by the year 2000 the planet would be warmer than it had been in 1000 years.
The top priorities should be reducing uncertainties in
climate sensitivity, getting a better understanding
of the
effect of climate change on atmospheric circulation (critical for understanding
of regional
climate change, changes in extremes) and reducing uncertainties in radiative forcing — particularly those associated with
aerosols.
Paraphrasing the text in the post,
aerosols that are input into the atmosphere, due to their spatial heterogeneity, also cause regions
of heating or cooling that the atmosphere can respond to by changing its circulation — and that might have further
climate effects in places far away from where the
aerosols are input.
Sometimes various factors like
aerosols or vegetation change aren't considered, and thus whatever
effect they might have would just be lumped into the value
of climate sensitivity value that emerges from this method.
The main research themes include greenhouse gas concentrations and ecosystem — atmosphere fluxes, the
climate effects of atmospheric
aerosols,
aerosol — cloud interactions and air quality.
Spatial distributions and seasonal cycles
of aerosol climate effects in India seen in a global
climate -
aerosol model.
Thus to provide the clearest picture
of the CO2
effect, we approximate the net future change
of human - made non-CO2 forcings as zero and we exclude future changes
of natural
climate forcings, such as solar irradiance and volcanic
aerosols.
However, this
climate sensitivity includes only the
effects of fast feedbacks
of the
climate system, such as water vapor, clouds,
aerosols, and sea ice.
Earth's measured energy imbalance has been used to infer the
climate forcing by
aerosols, with two independent analyses yielding a forcing in the past decade
of about − 1.5 W / m2 [64], [72], including the direct
aerosol forcing and indirect
effects via induced cloud changes.
They also compared global estimates
of aerosol effects on the Earth's
climate using two
of the parameterizations.
al., Earth's Energy Imbalance and Implications suggests that many
climate models underestimate the
effect of positive
climate forcings but also underestimate the
effects of negative forcings due to
aerosols.
But, as far as I can see, the «attacks» by vested interests are not even able to make legitimate points (e.g. uncertainty about the
effects of clouds or
aerosols in
climate models).
From the Physical Science Basis: «Shindell et al. (2009) estimated the impact
of reactive species emissions on both gaseous and
aerosol forcing species and found that ozone precursors, including methane, had an additional substantial
climate effect because they increased or decreased the rate
of oxidation
of SO2 to sulphate
aerosol.
However, the combined
climate effect of GHG and
aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained.
It is my understanding that the uncertainties regarding
climate sensitivity to a nominal 2XCO2 forcing is primarily a function
of the uncertainties in (1) future atmospheric
aerosol concentrations; both sulfate - type (cooling) and black carbon - type (warming), (2) feedbacks associated with
aerosol effects on the properties
of clouds (e.g. will cloud droplets become more reflective?)
Also, due to the multiplicity
of anthropogenic and natural
effects on the
climate over this time (i.e.
aerosols, land - use change, greenhouse gases, ozone changes, solar, volcanic etc.) it is difficult to accurately define the forcings.
Therefore when you ask about the general
effects of cloud feedbacks on
climate, you have moved well beyond the scope
of a discussion about
aerosol second indirect
effects.
[
Of course, this experiment is faulty b / c the thermal mass of the water is acting like a hot water bottle...] Conceptually, however, you can show your students the diffusion effect associated with CO2 and H2O, that the heat will eventually work its way out of the water into its surroundings [like heat trapped in a hot rock], and that climate science is a complex endeavor because the CO2 signal is not the sole factor out there [although one of the only man - made ones — others: water, aerosols, sun, et a
Of course, this experiment is faulty b / c the thermal mass
of the water is acting like a hot water bottle...] Conceptually, however, you can show your students the diffusion effect associated with CO2 and H2O, that the heat will eventually work its way out of the water into its surroundings [like heat trapped in a hot rock], and that climate science is a complex endeavor because the CO2 signal is not the sole factor out there [although one of the only man - made ones — others: water, aerosols, sun, et a
of the water is acting like a hot water bottle...] Conceptually, however, you can show your students the diffusion
effect associated with CO2 and H2O, that the heat will eventually work its way out
of the water into its surroundings [like heat trapped in a hot rock], and that climate science is a complex endeavor because the CO2 signal is not the sole factor out there [although one of the only man - made ones — others: water, aerosols, sun, et a
of the water into its surroundings [like heat trapped in a hot rock], and that
climate science is a complex endeavor because the CO2 signal is not the sole factor out there [although one
of the only man - made ones — others: water, aerosols, sun, et a
of the only man - made ones — others: water,
aerosols, sun, et al]
However, under a
climate mitigation scenario for the twenty - first century in which sulphate
aerosols decline before atmospheric CO2 is stabilized, this «diffuse - radiation» fertilization
effect declines rapidly to near zero by the end
of the twenty - first century.»
Given the total irrelevance
of volcanic
aerosols during the period in question, the only very modest
effect of fossil fuel emissions and the many inconsistencies governing the data pertaining to solar irradiance, it seems clear that
climate science has no meaningful explanation for the considerable warming trend we see in the earlier part
of the 20th century — and if that's the case, then there is no reason to assume that the warming we see in the latter part
of that century could not also be due to either some as yet unknown natural force, or perhaps simply random drift.
Your estimates
of climate sensitivity come from the IPCC, which assumes that
aerosols will continue to provide a very strong cooling
effect that offsets about half
of the warming from CO2, but you are talking about time frames in which we have stopped burning fossil fuels, so is it appropriate to continue to assume the presence
of cooling
aerosols at these future times?
Has anyone modeled and published the
effects of anthropogenic Chinese / Indian
aerosol emissions on monsoonal / SE Asian
climate?
Climate Resistance: What are the implications
of this work for the idea that the post-war temperature decline is the result
of sulphate
aerosols masking the warming
effect of CO2 emissions?