Sentences with phrase «climate model average»

Whether the 0.17 °C / decade is significantly different from the climate model average simulated trend during that period of 0.23 °C / decade is discussed extensively below.

From the recent literature, the central estimate of the equilibrium climate sensitivity is ~ 2 °C, while the climate model average is ~ 3.2 °C, or an equilibrium climate sensitivity that is some 40 % lower than the model average.

Those based on instrumental temperature records (e.g., thermometer measurements over the past 150 years or so) have a mean sensitivity of around 2.5 C, while climate models average closer to 3.5 C.

Not exact matches

But climate models for early Mars suggest average temperatures around the globe stayed well below freezing.

Planning meetings for the Global Seed Vault in Norway spawned the idea of looking at average summer temperatures, which climate models can project relatively reliably and which have a large impact on crop yields — between 2.5 and 16 percent less wheat, corn, soy or other crops are produced for every 1.8 — degree F (1 — degree C) rise.

Three approaches were used to evaluate the outstanding «carbon budget» (the total amount of CO2 emissions compatible with a given global average warming) for 1.5 °C: re-assessing the evidence provided by complex Earth System Models, new experiments with an intermediate - complexity model, and evaluating the implications of current ranges of uncertainty in climate system properties using a simple model.

But climate models predict reductions in dissolved oxygen in all oceans as average global air and sea temperatures rise, and this may be the main driver of what is happening there, she says.

There are more than a dozen widely used global climate models today, and despite the fact that they are constantly being upgraded, they have already proved successful in predicting seasonal rainfall averages and tracking temperature changes.

Conservative climate models predict that average temperatures in the US Midwest will rise by 4 °C over the next century.

«The result is not a surprise, but if you look at the global climate models that have been used to analyze what the planet looked like 20,000 years ago — the same models used to predict global warming in the future — they are doing, on average, a very good job reproducing how cold it was in Antarctica,» said first author Kurt Cuffey, a glaciologist at the University of California, Berkeley, and professor of geography and of earth and planetary sciences.

The model was used to analyze average summer and winter temperatures for the Pacific Southwest, Prairie and North Atlantic regions (seen in the image above)-- regions that represent three distinct climates.

«During last warming period, Antarctica heated up two to three times more than planet average: Amplification of warming at poles consistent with today's climate change models.»

To produce visualizations that show temperature and precipitation changes similar to those included in the IPCC report, the NASA Center for Climate Simulation calculated average temperature and precipitation changes from models that ran the four different emissions scenarios.

«Climate models have improved greatly in the last 10 years, which allows us to look in detail at the simulation of daily weather rather than just monthly averages,» said Pierce.

Their findings, based on output from four global climate models of varying ocean and atmospheric resolution, indicate that ocean temperature in the U.S. Northeast Shelf is projected to warm twice as fast as previously projected and almost three times faster than the global average.

«Most global climate models underestimate the average temperature variations that the region has experienced,» Tripati said, adding that the other models» simulations may be incomplete or the models are not sensitive enough.

Dr Stephen Grimes of Plymouth University, who initiated the research project, highlighted the climate changes that must have caused this increase in sediment erosion and transport — «We have climate model simulations of the effect of warming on rainfall during the PETM event, and they show some changes in the average amounts of rainfall, but the largest change is how this rainfall is packaged up — it's concentrated in more rapid, extreme events — larger and bigger storms.»

When this model was then applied to the future, they found that in a world of continuing high greenhouse gas emissions, the threshold for widespread drought - induced vascular damage would be crossed and initiate widespread tree deaths on average across climate model projections in the 2050s.

«Of course, we can not predict individual rainstorms in California and their local impacts months or seasons ahead, but we can use our climate computer model to determine whether on average the next year will have drier or wetter soils or more or less wildfires.

According to leading climate models, all the added CO2 could trigger an average global temperature rise of up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.

Climate models do not predict an even warming of the whole planet: changes in wind patterns and ocean currents can change the way heat is distributed, leading to some parts warming much faster than average, while a few may cool, at least at first.

«Many studies have looked at average snowfall over a season in climate models, but there's less known about these very heavy snowfalls,» says study author Paul O'Gorman, an associate professor in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences.

And Monteleoni has developed machine - learning algorithms to create weighted averages of the roughly 30 climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Climate Change.

Climate model simulations suggest that on average, as the surface temperature and moisture increases the conditions for thunderstorms becomes more frequent.

There are some caveats with their study: The global climate models (GCMs) do not reproduce the 1930 - 1940 Arctic warm event very well, and the geographical differences in a limited number of grid - boxes in the observations and the GCMs may have been erased through taking the average value over the 90 - degree sectors.

The major carbon producers data can be applied to climate models to derive the carbon input's effect on climate change impacts including global average temperature, sea level rise, and extreme events such as heat waves.

However, it seems that one common trait among some climate models is the indication that a global warming may result in a more a general El Niño - type average state (eg.

He took the average from two climate models (2ºC from Suki Manabe at GFDL, 4ºC from Jim Hansen at GISS) to get a mean of 3ºC, added half a degree on either side for the error and produced the canonical 1.5 - 4.5 ºC range which survived unscathed even up to the IPCC TAR (2001) report.

According to one study that looked at eight fuel aridity metrics in the Western U.S. and modeled climate change's effects on them, human - caused climate change accounted for about 55 percent of the observed increases in fuel aridity between 1979 and 2015 (Figure 6), and added an estimated 4.2 million hectares of forest fire area between 1984 and 2015.7 Based on all eight metrics, the Western U.S. experienced an average of 9 additional days per year of high fire potential due to climate change between 2000 and 2015, a 50 percent increase from the baseline of 17 days per year when looking back to 1979.

After a general trashing of various things including surface observations and climate models, he admitted that his prediction for the globally - averaged warming (of ~ 1.5 C by 2100) is within the IPCC range... albeit at the low end.

Also, for those interested, on page 41 of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Synthesis Report, is found a description of their Key Finding # 2 which includes the statement «Climate models indicate that the local warming over Greenland is likely to be one to three times the global average.»

Running atmospheric computer models, British researchers found a connection between climate change and turbulence, and they predict that the average strength of turbulence will increase by 10 to 40 % by 2050.

Strong agreement exists among climate models that average temperatures will continue to increase through the mid century (2040 - 2069) and end - of - century (2070 - 2099) across Montana (see Climate chclimate models that average temperatures will continue to increase through the mid century (2040 - 2069) and end - of - century (2070 - 2099) across Montana (see Climate chClimate chapter).

Climate scientists use models to forecast the average water level in the pool, not the waves.

(Bottom left) Multi-model average SST change for LGM PMIP - 2 simulations by five AOGCMs (Community Climate System Model (CCSM), Flexible Global Ocean - Atmosphere - Land System (FGOALS), Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate System Model (IPSL - CM), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC)-RRB-.

Because climate studies using multi-model ensembles are generally superior to single model approaches43, all nine fire weather season lengths for each location were averaged into an ensemble mean fire weather season length, hereafter referred to as «Fire Weather Season Length» (See Supplementary Methods).

Similarly, all climate models used in this assessment agree that the average annual temperature in Montana will increase over the next century.

The researchers studied all 571 European cities to assess the likely impact of flooding, drought and heatwaves in the latter half of the century, under a climate model where average temperatures rise between 2.6 C and 4.8 C - the current widely accepted business - as - usual trajectory.

Hovine, S., and T. Fichefet, 1994: A zonally averaged, three - basin ocean circulation model for climate studies.

The area of summertime sea - ice during 2007 - 2009 was about 40 % less than the average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models.

The Met Office Hadley Centre (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research) climate change model, Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3)[53], a coupled atmosphere - ocean general circulation model, was used for the time intervals 2020, 2050 and 2080 (note these date represent a time windows of ten years either side of the time interval date, i.e. 2020 is an average of the years 2010 — 2029, 2050 for 2040 — 2059 and 2080 for 2070 — 2089), under three emission scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)[54]: scenario A1B (maximum energy requirements; emissions differentiated dependent on fuel sources; balance across sources), A2A (high energy requirements; emissions less than A1 / Fl) and B2A (lower energy requirements; emissions greater thClimate Prediction and Research) climate change model, Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3)[53], a coupled atmosphere - ocean general circulation model, was used for the time intervals 2020, 2050 and 2080 (note these date represent a time windows of ten years either side of the time interval date, i.e. 2020 is an average of the years 2010 — 2029, 2050 for 2040 — 2059 and 2080 for 2070 — 2089), under three emission scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)[54]: scenario A1B (maximum energy requirements; emissions differentiated dependent on fuel sources; balance across sources), A2A (high energy requirements; emissions less than A1 / Fl) and B2A (lower energy requirements; emissions greater thclimate change model, Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3)[53], a coupled atmosphere - ocean general circulation model, was used for the time intervals 2020, 2050 and 2080 (note these date represent a time windows of ten years either side of the time interval date, i.e. 2020 is an average of the years 2010 — 2029, 2050 for 2040 — 2059 and 2080 for 2070 — 2089), under three emission scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)[54]: scenario A1B (maximum energy requirements; emissions differentiated dependent on fuel sources; balance across sources), A2A (high energy requirements; emissions less than A1 / Fl) and B2A (lower energy requirements; emissions greater thanmodel, Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3)[53], a coupled atmosphere - ocean general circulation model, was used for the time intervals 2020, 2050 and 2080 (note these date represent a time windows of ten years either side of the time interval date, i.e. 2020 is an average of the years 2010 — 2029, 2050 for 2040 — 2059 and 2080 for 2070 — 2089), under three emission scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)[54]: scenario A1B (maximum energy requirements; emissions differentiated dependent on fuel sources; balance across sources), A2A (high energy requirements; emissions less than A1 / Fl) and B2A (lower energy requirements; emissions greater thanModel, version 3 (HadCM3)[53], a coupled atmosphere - ocean general circulation model, was used for the time intervals 2020, 2050 and 2080 (note these date represent a time windows of ten years either side of the time interval date, i.e. 2020 is an average of the years 2010 — 2029, 2050 for 2040 — 2059 and 2080 for 2070 — 2089), under three emission scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)[54]: scenario A1B (maximum energy requirements; emissions differentiated dependent on fuel sources; balance across sources), A2A (high energy requirements; emissions less than A1 / Fl) and B2A (lower energy requirements; emissions greater thanmodel, was used for the time intervals 2020, 2050 and 2080 (note these date represent a time windows of ten years either side of the time interval date, i.e. 2020 is an average of the years 2010 — 2029, 2050 for 2040 — 2059 and 2080 for 2070 — 2089), under three emission scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)[54]: scenario A1B (maximum energy requirements; emissions differentiated dependent on fuel sources; balance across sources), A2A (high energy requirements; emissions less than A1 / Fl) and B2A (lower energy requirements; emissions greater than B1).

One looked at the historical temperature record and compared how often such severe heat waves occurred a century ago versus today using 3 - day averages; the other used climate models that simulate a world with and without warming to see how the odds of such an event shifted.

Gallée, H., et al., 1991: Simulation of the last glacial cycle by a coupled, sectorally averaged climate — ice sheet model.

Paul O'Gorman, an atmospheric scientist at MIT, has looked at how climate models expect the intensity of extreme snowfalls to change compared to average snowfalls.

However, satellite observations are notably cooler in the lower troposphere than predicted by climate models, and the research team in their paper acknowledge this, remarking: «One area of concern is that on average... simulations underestimate the observed lower stratospheric cooling and overestimate tropospheric warming... These differences must be due to some combination of errors in model forcings, model response errors, residual observational inhomogeneities, and an unusual manifestation of natural internal variability in the observations.»

Climate models have predicted the least temperature rise would be on average 1.65 °C (2.97 °F), but upper estimates vary a lot, averaging 5.2 °C (9.36 °F).

«We use a massive ensemble of the Bern2.5 D climate model of intermediate complexity, driven by bottom - up estimates of historic radiative forcing F, and constrained by a set of observations of the surface warming T since 1850 and heat uptake Q since the 1950s... Between 1850 and 2010, the climate system accumulated a total net forcing energy of 140 x 1022 J with a 5 - 95 % uncertainty range of 95 - 197 x 1022 J, corresponding to an average net radiative forcing of roughly 0.54 (0.36 - 0.76) Wm - 2.»

These results are based on data compiled from 15 different climate models, and use the average temperature from 1970 through 1999 as a baseline for comparison.

Red indicates regions of North America for which a statistical analysis using two climate models indicated there is a 97.5 percent probability that average temperatures will rise by at least 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2070.

Following the direction set by President Obama on May 21, 2010, NHTSA and EPA have issued joint Final Rules for Corporate Average Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas emissions regulations for model years 2017 and beyond, that will help address our country's dependence on imported oil, save consumers money at the pump, and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases that contribute to global climate change.