Sentences with phrase «climate model estimates»

Our Figure below helps to illustrate the discrepancy between climate model estimates and real - world estimates of the earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity.

«From our observations we calculated that value as 1.1 C (almost 2 ° Fahrenheit), while climate models estimate that value as 2.3 C (about 4.1 ° F),» Christy said.

«From our observations we calculated that value as 1.1 C (almost 2 ° Fahrenheit), while climate models estimate that value as 2.3 C (about 4.1 ° F),» Christy said.

Click to enlarge to see what climate models estimate, and what almost 100 % of scientific community knows and won't deny:

Climate models estimate that the world's oceans have absorbed about 30 % of the CO2 that humans have released in the past 150 years and that land plants have gulped another 30 %.

Climate models estimate that around the world, average VPD in warm seasons could rise as much as 3.6 percent each decade, according to the study.

Not exact matches

From those models, they can make estimates about whether a storm's wind or rain output was influenced by climate change.

Some of the largest uncertainties in current climate models stem from their wide - ranging estimates of the size and number of dust particles in the atmosphere.

«Even our upper estimate, 0.01 bar, is an insignificant amount in comparison to the atmosphere required to maintain a sufficiently strong greenhouse effect, about 1 bar or more according to climate models.»

Nelson and his colleagues, working with funding from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank, estimated global agricultural impacts by pairing IFPRI's own economic models for crop yields with climate models for precipitation and temperature from the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research and Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization.

The scientists then plugged the future climate estimates from each of the 11 models into the VIC model to generate projected groundwater recharge scenarios.

When scientists use climate models for attribution studies, they first run simulations with estimates of only «natural» climate influences over the past 100 years, such as changes in solar output and major volcanic eruptions.

Considering that existing climate models typically do not consider northeast Greenland with future sea - level projections, the findings suggest that sea - level rise estimates may err on the high side, close to 3 feet or higher, said Khan.

So far, though, it has been difficult to measure this important indicator, with current climate models relying on rough carbon estimates.

Landerer and his colleagues modelled the changes that would occur if the most realistic estimates made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — a doubling of carbon dioxide levels by 2100 compared with 2000 — were to become reality.

According to the report, climate models consistently estimate that warming will occur faster in the Middle East - North Africa region, accentuating the growing scarcity of water.

Barnard and his team predicted how SoCal's shores would evolve from 2010 through 2100 by modeling the factors that influence beaches — estimates for sea level rise as well as wave and storm behavior and predicted climate change patterns if the world eventually stabilizes its greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century, then starts reducing them.

In a recent study, for instance, well - respected climate models were shown to have completely opposing estimates for the overall effect of the clouds and smoke in the southeast Atlantic: Some found net warming, whereas others found cooling.

And by carefully measuring and modeling the resulting changes in atmospheric composition, scientists could improve their estimate of how sensitive Earth's climate is to CO2, said lead author Joyce Penner, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Michigan whose work focuses on improving global climate models and their ability to model the interplay between clouds and aerosol particles.

This enabled the team to estimate how temperature - related mortality rates will change under alternative scenarios of climate change, defined by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for climate modelling and research iclimate change, defined by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for climate modelling and research iClimate Change for climate modelling and research iclimate modelling and research in 2014.

Using data from several sources on 162 terrestrial animals and plants unique (endemic) to the Albertine Rift, the researchers used ecological niche modeling (computer models) to determine the extent of habitat already lost due to agriculture, and to estimate the future loss of habitat as a result of climate change.

The calculations are in line with estimates from most climate models, proving that these models do a good job of estimating past climatic conditions and, very likely, future conditions in an era of climate change and global warming.

To assess how future heat waves might affect air travel, researchers used climate models to estimate hour - by - hour temperatures throughout the year at 19 particularly busy airports in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, China, and South Asia for the period between 2060 and 2080.

Using a hierarchical model, the authors combine information from these various sources to obtain an ensemble estimate of current and future climate along with an associated measure of uncertainty.

Using sophisticated atmospheric and climate models, the researchers estimated the levels of PM2.5 directly attributable to wildfires during a recent six - year period, 2004 to 2009, as well as under projected future climate change conditions (2046 - 2051).

This means that climate models that include microorganisms to estimate future climate change must be reconsidered.

Other researchers have used computer models to estimate what an event similar to a Maunder Minimum, if it were to occur in coming decades, might mean for our current climate, which is now rapidly warming.

The study establishes a method for estimating UHI intensities using PRISM — Parameter - elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model — climate data, an analytical model that creates gridded estimates by incorporating climatic variables (temperature and precipitation), expert knowledge of climatic events (rain shadows, temperature inversions and coastal regimes) and digital elevaModel — climate data, an analytical model that creates gridded estimates by incorporating climatic variables (temperature and precipitation), expert knowledge of climatic events (rain shadows, temperature inversions and coastal regimes) and digital elevamodel that creates gridded estimates by incorporating climatic variables (temperature and precipitation), expert knowledge of climatic events (rain shadows, temperature inversions and coastal regimes) and digital elevation.

Overeem's technique «has the potential to give good quantitative rainfall estimates for real - time hazards forecasting, as well as regional and global climate model analysis in regions of the world where the impact could be great,» Baeck says.

New climate models — made by using estimated radiation levels from that time, along with data from the Magellan spacecraft about Venus's current surface — suggest that Venus would have been only 11 °C (52 °F).

While his new study makes no use of the huge computer models commonly used by scientists to estimate the magnitude of future climate change, Lovejoy's findings effectively complement those of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), hclimate change, Lovejoy's findings effectively complement those of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), hClimate Change (IPCC), he says.

The study applied «medium to high» future emissions estimates of heat - trapping gases, as assumed by the California state government, to models designed to assess what effect climate change would have on national parks like Yosemite, Death Valley, Redwood, Joshua Tree and Sequoia.

Including the elevation effects in the model increases the estimated sea - level rise by a small but significant amount (5 % enhancement of melt by 2100 and 10 % by 2200 for a climate warming scenario).

To estimate how much the sensitivity varies, Gary Russell of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and colleagues ran a climate model repeatedly.

Also, the new mortality estimates, while dramatically higher than the approximately 150,000 annual deaths attributed to climate change stress in WHO's last assessment in 2004, are not directly comparable to earlier studies, which relied on different models and different underlying scenarios.

Future projections for the same cities are drawn from climate models that estimate temperature and humidity assuming global greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated.

For the first time, their study combines the strengths of simulations based on integrated energy - economy - climate models that estimate cost - optimal long - term strategies to meet climate targets with life cycle assessment approaches.

Wiedinmyer also wants to put her estimates into models of climate and air movement and see if they match up with current air observations.

They applied this data in models as a baseline to estimate future climate and vegetation scenarios based on different temperature increases.

To estimate the extinction risk of these plants, scientists have previously resorted to static models that insufficiently mapped the dynamic responses of flora to climate change.

«Non-linear» animal reactions He and his colleagues based their analysis on nearly 500 million temperature records collected at 3,000 weather stations between 1961 and 2009, feeding that information into models that allowed them to estimate how climate shifts affected the metabolism of cold - blooded insects, lizards and amphibians around the world.

International institutions such as CGIAR have developed computer models that use data on climate, crop types, and other factors to estimate current food production and forecast future trends.

Colgan's team used two different combinations of regional and global climate models to estimate how conditions might change at the camp's location in the future.

«The study provides more realistic modeling estimates of how much vegetation change will occur over the 21st century and will allow better predictions of future climate change,» she said.

To make mortality estimates, the researchers took temperature projections from 16 global climate models, downscaled these to Manhattan, and put them against two different backdrops: one assuming rapid global population growth and few efforts to limit emissions; the other, assuming slower growth, and technological changes that would decrease emissions by 2040.

Because the climate model already accounts for the amount of the sun's energy blocked by different types of airborne particles, it was not a stretch to estimate the particles» effects on solar energy.

Combining the speed and thickness measurements allowed the scientists to determine how much ice was flowing into the ocean, while the climate model allowed them to estimate how much snow was falling on the ice sheet.

Had regional temperature cooled by ∼ 4 °C, as has been estimated from climate models of the eruption's impact (14), the lake would likely have experienced massive overturn of the water column, a major iron oxidation event, and extermination of much of the biota in the upper water column.

By using climate models to simulate what air pollution was like in 1850 and 2000, Jason West at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and his colleagues have estimated its effect on current death rates.

Post, E. S., A. Grambsch, C. Weaver, P. Morefield, J. Huang, L. - Y. Leung, C. G. Nolte, P. Adams, X. - Z. Liang, J. - H. Zhu, and H. Mahone, 2012: Variation in estimated ozone - related health impacts of climate change due to modeling choices and assumptions.