The Canadian
climate model failures has contributed to this misery.
From the UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA and the «blame the plants not the humans for
climate model failures» department.
In addition, the scientists determined that the climate models, favored by the IPCC and other non-empirical based scientists, are unable to faithfully mimic the ancient past AMO variability due to geographic differences (location differences)- a major
climate modeling failure.
Almost on a weekly basis there is new research revealing
the climate model failure fiasco, which likely will remain the case for the foreseeable future, per a recent study.
Not exact matches
Is this «science information deficit
model» then the reason for our
failure to accept
climate change?
The
failure stems from «The boy who cried wolf» The
models have failed to replicate
climate.
The
model explores short - term scenarios of policy decisions by simulating social - economical - environmental systems, including the impact of
climate - induced drought on crop
failures and food prices.
As
climate continues to warm, the probability of
model failure thus increases.
If you can't keep up with annual - decadal changes in the TOA radiative imbalance or ocean heat content (because of
failure to correctly
model changes in the atmosphere and ocean due to natural variability), then your
climate model lacks fidelity to the real world system it is tasked to represent.
Russell Seitz keeps insisting the
failure of ever - finer - grained
climate models to converge on a sensitivity value casts the entire
modeling enterprise in doubt.
October 1998: Baliunas on the
failure of the computer
climate models: «It should be right where the warming is felt first — for example, the polar regions, the Arctic.
Their
failure do so is a good argument against them — e.g. «what
model of AGW
climate change are you using when you say that recent trends do not support AGW?»
In doing so I provide a new conceptual overview of Earth's
climate mechanism which appears to fit all observed changes in atmospheric temperature trends and, in view of the
failure of existing
climate models, I suggests a path forward for further research.
The almost complete and abject
failure of the
climate alarmists and their
models to actually correctly predict anything at all relating to the global
climate after some 25 years of research if we take Hansen's infamous Congressional meeting in 1988 as the starting point for
climate alarmist research, has been well documented in numerous places including here..
This prediction
failure has been due to the
climate models assuming that minimum temperatures (nighttime temps) are driven by atmospheric CO2 levels, resulting in predicted minimum temperatures that are too high.
In context of the criticism of your paper, and of the problems and
failures in global circulation
models (now being called global
climate models by the way!)
the topic of
climate «
modelling» will be seen as a TOTAL ABJECT
FAILURE (my condolences to good meaning folks that chose that profession, but the clues were there if you looked hard enough).
Air pressure changes, allergies increase, Alps melting, anxiety, aggressive polar bears, algal blooms, Asthma, avalanches, billions of deaths, blackbirds stop singing, blizzards, blue mussels return, boredom, budget increases, building season extension, bushfires, business opportunities, business risks, butterflies move north, cannibalistic polar bears, cardiac arrest, Cholera, civil unrest, cloud increase, cloud stripping, methane emissions from plants, cold spells (Australia), computer
models, conferences, coral bleaching, coral reefs grow, coral reefs shrink, cold spells, crumbling roads, buildings and sewage systems, damages equivalent to $ 200 billion, Dengue hemorrhagic fever, dermatitis, desert advance, desert life threatened, desert retreat, destruction of the environment, diarrhoea, disappearance of coastal cities, disaster for wine industry (US), Dolomites collapse, drought, drowning people, drowning polar bears, ducks and geese decline, dust bowl in the corn belt, early spring, earlier pollen season, earthquakes, Earth light dimming, Earth slowing down, Earth spinning out of control, Earth wobbling, El Nià ± o intensification, erosion, emerging infections, encephalitis,, Everest shrinking, evolution accelerating, expansion of university
climate groups, extinctions (ladybirds, pandas, pikas, polar bears, gorillas, whales, frogs, toads, turtles, orang - utan, elephants, tigers, plants, salmon, trout, wild flowers, woodlice, penguins, a million species, half of all animal and plant species), experts muzzled, extreme changes to California, famine, farmers go under, figurehead sacked, fish catches drop, fish catches rise, fish stocks decline, five million illnesses, floods, Florida economic decline, food poisoning, footpath erosion, forest decline, forest expansion, frosts, fungi invasion, Garden of Eden wilts, glacial retreat, glacial growth, global cooling, glowing clouds, Gore omnipresence, Great Lakes drop, greening of the North, Gulf Stream
failure, Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, harvest increase, harvest shrinkage, hay fever epidemic, heat waves, hibernation ends too soon, hibernation ends too late, human fertility reduced, human health improvement, hurricanes, hydropower problems, hyperthermia deaths, ice sheet growth, ice sheet shrinkage, inclement weather, Inuit displacement, insurance premium rises, invasion of midges, islands sinking, itchier poison ivy, jellyfish explosion, Kew Gardens taxed, krill decline, landslides, landslides of ice at 140 mph, lawsuits increase, lawyers» income increased (surprise surprise!)
In any case, if I'm correct, then the apparent
failure of Hansen's prediction was not to foresee the industrialization of the 3rd world nations and its ramifications, and not some more basic problem with his
climate model.
It is worth noting the only «evidence» scientists have that the earth's changing
climate has been driven by rising CO2 is based on their
models»
failures to simulate 20th century warming when only «known» natural factors are considered.
-LSB-...] warming pause, the epic
failure of
climate models, and the growing popularity of skeptic blogs, Hockey Stick inventor Michael Mann still tries to pull rank and tell policymakers what to do because, after -LSB-...]
As a result of the institution's continued support for dirty fossil fuel projects and its
failure to approve a
climate sensitive energy strategy, the WBG continues to finance unsustainable dirty energy choices that are harmful to the
climate and lock developing countries into energy
models that are both dangerous and expensive.
To my mind, the biggest
failure of
climate science is that they insist on making assumptions needed by their Gaia
Models.
the IPCC - AR5... is the
failure of global
climate models to predict a hiatus in warming of global surface temperatures since 1998.
The enthusiasts fell into disbelief that everyone didn't pooh - pooh the
failure of the
climate models to perform as advertised.
The chart at top displays the huge prediction
failure of IPCC
climate models in regards to global warming - the IPCC predictions vs. actual temperature reality.
Essentially, the demonstrably large
failures of both global and regional
climate models represent a systemic
failure created by those consensus «experts.»
One of the most controversial issues emerging from the recent Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is the failure of global climate models to predict a hiatus in warming of global surface temperatures sinc
Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is the
failure of global
climate models to predict a hiatus in warming of global surface temperatures sinc
climate models to predict a hiatus in warming of global surface temperatures since 1998.
No matter what political committees try to absolve corruption of
climate science of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), they can not hide the complete failure of the computer models to make a single accurate pred
climate science of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), they can not hide the complete failure of the computer models to make a single accurate pred
Climate Change (IPCC), they can not hide the complete
failure of the computer
models to make a single accurate prediction.
Steve,
Models that fixate on a dominant variable are doomed to
failure but that does not discourage «
Climate Scientists» around the world in the least.
Alternatively, can one argue that
failure to predict a specific observed climatic feature with a
climate model is sufficient to falsify that
model?
C40 Cities
Climate Leadership Group, 12 California, 7, 68, 102, 128, 169 - 170, 187, 196, 232 - 234, 245 California Energy Commission, 232 Cambridge Media Environment Programme (CMEP), 167 - 168 Cambridge University, 102 Cameron, David, 11, 24, 218 Cameroon, 25 Campbell, Philip, 165 Canada, 22, 32, 64, 111, 115, 130, 134, 137, 156 - 157, 166, 169, 177, 211, 222, 224 - 226, 230, 236, 243 Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS), 15 Cap - and - trade, 20, 28, 40 - 41, 44, 170, 175 allowances (permits), 41 - 42, 176, 243 Capitalism, 34 - 35, 45 Capps, Lois, 135 Car (see vehicle) Carbon, 98, 130 Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), 192 Carbon Capture and Storage Association, 164 Carbon credits (offsets), 28 - 29, 42 - 43, 45 Carbon Cycle, 80 - 82 Carbon dioxide (CO2), 9, 18, 23, 49 - 51, 53, 55, 66 - 67, 72 - 89, 91, 98 - 99, 110, 112, 115, 118, 128 - 132, 137, 139, 141 - 144, 152, 240 emissions, 12, 18 - 25, 28 - 30, 32 - 33, 36 - 38, 41 - 44, 47, 49, 53, 55, 71 - 72, 74, 77 - 78, 81 - 82, 108 - 109, 115, 132, 139, 169, 186, 199 - 201, 203 - 204, 209 - 211, 214, 217, 219, 224, 230 - 231, 238, 241, 243 - 244 Carbon Dioxide Analysis Center, 19 Carbon Expo, 42 Carbon, footprint, 3, 13, 29, 35, 41, 45, 110, 132 tax, 20, 44, 170 trading, 13, 20, 40, 43, 44, 176, 182 Carbon monoxide (CO), 120 Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC), 44 Carlin, George, 17 Carter, Bob, 63 Carter, Jimmy, 186, 188 Cato Institute, 179 CBS, 141, 146 Center for Disease Control, 174 Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, 62, 139 Centre for Policy Studies, 219 CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research), 96 Chavez, Hugo, 34 Chicago Tribune, 146 China, 29, 32 - 33, 60 - 62, 120, 169, 176, 187 - 188, 211, 216, 225 - 226, 242 - 243 China's National Population and Planning Commission, 33 Chinese Academy of Sciences, 60 Chirac, Jacques, 36 Chlorofluorocarbons, 42 - 43, 50 Choi, Yong - Sang, 88 Christy, John, 105 Churchill, Winston, 214, 220 Chu, Steven, 187 Citibank (Citigroup), 40, 176 Clean Air Act, 85, 128 - 129 Clean Development Mechanism, 42
Climate Action Partnership, 14
Climate alarm, 4, 13, 21, 32, 35, 38, 56, 102 - 103, 115 - 117, 120, 137, 156, 168, 173, 182
Climate Audit, 66
Climate change, adaptation, 39, 110, 112 mitigation, 16, 39, 110
Climate Change and the
Failure of Democracy, 34
Climate Change: Picturing the Science, 121
Climate Change Reconsidered, 242
Climate conference, 38 Cancun, 18, 29, 36 - 37, 124 - 125, 242 Copenhagen, 33, 36, 109, 125, 156, 158, 175, 241 - 242 Durban, 13, 36 - 37, 166, 242 - 243 Climategate, 2, 67, 152, 158 - 170, 180, 182, 242
Climate Protection Agreement, 12
Climate Research Unit (CRU), 48, 67, 120, 147, 152 - 153, 158 - 160, 162 - 163, 165 - 167, 169
Climate Science Register, 142 Climatism, definition, 2, 7 Clinton, Bill, 176, 178 Clinton Global Initiative, 176 CLOUD project, 96 Club of Rome, 21, 186 CO2Science, 59, 61 - 62, 66, 131 Coal, 19 - 20, 39 - 41, 80, 126, 128 - 129, 175, 185 - 186, 188 - 190, 192 - 196, 199 - 201, 209, 214, 217, 219, 222, 229 Coase, Ronald, 145 Coca - Cola, 138 Cogley, Graham, 156 Cohen, David, 220 Colorado State University, 117, 181 Columbia University, 7 Columbus, Christopher, 58 Computer
models, 16, 51 - 53, 56, 67, 72, 74,77 - 79, 82, 87, 89 - 91, 94, 105, 110 - 111, 120, 124, 138 - 140, 168, 171,173, 181, 238, 240, 246 Conference on the Changing Atmosphere, 15 Consensus, scientific, 12 Copenhagen Business School, 134 Coral, 53 Corporate Average Fuel Economy, 22 - 23 Cosmic Rays, 72, 93 - 99, 180 Credit Suisse, 176 Crow, Cheryl, 30 Crowley, Tom, 167 Cuadrilla Resources, 224 - 225 Curry, Judith, 164, 167 Cycles, natural, 3, 16, 57, 62 - 63, 66 - 69, 72, 80, 99, 103, 138, 238, 240 Milankovich, 62, 67, 80 Cyprus, 134 Czech Republic, 12, 37
The frigid weather, freezing families, record budget deficits, soaring unemployment — and complete
failure of global warming computer
models to predict anything other than «a warmer than normal winter» — have caused a meltdown in Europe's longstanding
climate and energy policies.
Actually, it is evidence of a
failure of the
models to skillfully predict the evolution of the
climate system.
IMHO, applying stochastic methods on some specific grid points in the
climate models that might have something «unusual», such as a random forest fire, forest clearance, crop
failure, or a vast algal bloom, or overfishing going on, might be reasonable, but deteremining the boundary conditions for these to happen is another matter.
«
Failure of
climate models to provide a consistent and convincing attribution argument for the warming from 1910 - 1940 and the plateau from the 1940 ′ s to the 1970 ′ s»
Many other examples of this type of test can be found in chapter 8 (
Climate Models and Their Evaluation) of IPCC / AR4, which assesses both
model successes AND
model failures.
To document the
failure of the
models with respect to this
climate metric, see this response in 2005 from Jim Hansen with respect to the GISS
climate model — http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/1116592hansen.pdf
They do this in spite of the
failure of the
models to predict the
climate.
Yes, but in no way is that one of the reasons for the
failure of
climate models to work.
The reason I focus on this point is the general
failure across the
modelling community to create the pause in a viable
climate model.
Betts was the guy who said that the
failure of
climate models doesn't matter because they're not important.
This
failure will not be solved in the near future they determine, which precludes these
models being able to «predict» abrupt
climate change.
The
failure of
climate models have been acknowledged by both sides of the
climate wars.
For instance, despite the obvious
failures of
climate models shown clearly in diagrams produced by Roy Spencer (shown on this page already), scientists continue to spin about them today, attempting to claim the
models are accurate.
Look at the IPCC
climate models and their
failures assuming high antro forcings!
Given the
failure of the publisher to show any «error» other than the expectation that
models be consistent with observations, I think that readers are entirely justified in concluding that the article was rejected not because it «contained errors», but for the reason stated in the reviewers» summary: because it was perceived to be «harmfulâ $ ¦ and worse from the
climate sceptics» media side».
In contrast, the IPCC
climate models predicted a significant cooling trend for the Tropics for those 83 months - an abysmal
failure, represented by a 7 degree trend difference between reality and prediction.
Some apparent problems with the predictions of
climate models, for example, have actually turned out to be due to problems with real - world data caused by the
failure to correct for factors such as the gradual changes in orbits of satellites.
The take - home message — that
climate models were on the verge of
failure (basically the opposite of the Post headline)-- is self - evident in Figure 1, adapted from our presentation.