Sentences with phrase «climate model prediction»

Evidence B On Neven's ASI weblog, a comparision of PIOMAS volume versus CMIP5 models shows ice - mass loss far exceeding any climate model prediction.

If the actual data to be plotted does not show rapid and unprecedented warming in the late 20th century, then why would the statistical science of climate model prediction give us high CO2 sensitivity and doomsday predictions for the middle / end of this century?

It is with» 97 %» certainty that any climate model prediction will be wrong within 3 to 5 years.

The linked article shows a graph comparing past climate and the climate model prediction.

As the adjacent chart by expert Bob Tisdale reveals, the NASA climate model prediction for ocean heat content (OHC) is robustly higher than actual measurements of OHC since 2003.

«TRUST NO ONE CLIMATE MODEL» should be stamped on every CO2 - centric climate model prediction and report that is handed to politicians and policymakers.

The left hand picture is the climate model prediction of warming in the mid troposphere due to greenhouse gases from 1958 to 1999.

«At present, these effects are not generally accounted for in climate model prediction studies,» study co-author J. T. Kiehl of NCAR notes.

He said that if he had to rely on the European Space Agency's limited, difficult - to - access data for his work checking climate model predictions against reality, he'd be «more or less blind» — particularly in the vast, uninhabited stretches of the globe like the Pacific, which are vital for understanding the world climate.

«It's not all sites and all places at all times, but if we have confidence in the climate model predictions, then according to these theories, we would expect the whole process to accelerate over next few decades,» Veblen said.

Researchers also evaluated the accuracy of existing climate model predictions for that region.

Those patterns matched three rather dire climate model predictions: that storm tracks — the paths along which cyclones travel in the Northern and Southern hemispheres — would shift poleward; that subtropical dry regions would expand, and that the tops of the highest clouds would get even higher.

13 - Feb - 2007 Antarctic Temperatures Disagree with Climate Model Predictions Ohio State University http://www.newswise.com/articles/view/527313/

Bromwich said the disagreement between climate model predictions and the snowfall and temperature records doesn't necessarily mean that the models are wrong.

There are examples where it is — for instance in the response to Pinatubo (for which validated climate model predictions were made ahead of time — Hansen et al 1992)-- but this is not in general going to be true.

A warning to the skeptics — there are very obvious trends for most of the parameters, which accord with climate model predictions for a hotter drier future.

This is quite subtle though — weather forecast models obviously do better if they have initial conditions that are closer to the observations, and one might argue that for particular climate model predictions that are strongly dependent on the base climatology (such as for Arctic sea ice) tuning to the climatology will be worthwhile.

More - severe climate model predictions could be the most accurate December 6, 2017 Carnegie Institution for Science

And one more thing that really bothers me about climate model predictions that is rarely discussed around here, and kind of swept into the closet, which is prediction skill.

C. Mountain glaciers are in retreat all over the world at low elevations, also matching climate model predictions.

Nevertheless, the IPCC appears to be set to conclude that warming in the near future will resume in accord with climate model predictions.

In reality, when we compare apples to apples — El Niño years to El Niño years — we've seen more than 0.3 °C global surface warming over the past 18 years, which is in line with climate model predictions.

Climate model predictions, however, are not accepted blindly when making attribution claims.

Speaking of Hansen's 1988 predictions and GCMs in general, Demetris Koutsoyiannis» paper has been published, evaluating 18 years of climate model predictions of temperature and precipitation at 8 locales distributed worldwide.

Figure 5: Various best estimate global temperature climate model predictions evaluated in the «Lessons from Past Climate Predictions» series vs. GISTEMP (red).

The three are Garth Paltridge, Albert Arking and Michael Pook, and they have found that, contrary to climate model predictions, water vapour in the upper atmosphere is acting as a brake on global warming.

QUESTION: If this hypothetical +0.03 C per decade trend line for the seven hottest peak years on record between 1998 and 2028 stayed within the CMIP5 min - max boundary line, as shown on the above graphic, could climate scientists justifiably claim in the year 2028 that «global warming» a.k.a. «climate change» had occurred on schedule according to AR5's climate model predictions?

For the tropical tropospheric temperature «anthropogenic signature», global climate model predictions since 1979/81 are already ~ 300 % to high over the satellite range.

To have the discrepancy between climate model predictions and reality acknowledged in Nature Geoscience is good.

It goes like this: The Russian heat wave 2010 was caused by a blocking pattern (albeit an extraordinary black swan type one (but we don't care, as these are future climate model predictions (and now is today, not tomorrow)-RRB--RRB-.

Michael Mann, another prominent climate scientist, recently said of the unexpectedly sudden Atlantic slowdown, «This is yet another example of where observations suggest that climate model predictions may be too conservative when it comes to the pace at which certain aspects of climate change are proceeding.»

Roger states that one can not consider climate model predictions (his type 4) at the regional scale when their predictive skill in hindcast mode is not demonstrated.

The multi-decadal global climate model predictions can certainly be used as one option for scenario generation.

Its hard to take climate model predictions seriously when such small errors can project twice the global warming — OR global cooling!

In contrast to the sophisticated climate model predictions of runaway («tipping point») global warming, in reality, real - world global warming, as measured by satellites, has disappeared for over 16 years despite the gargantuan increases in CO2 emissions... (Ramez Naam denies this)

No matter how many years go by, the trend towards ever worse climate model predictions continues.

The simple, indisputable, scientific summary after 35 years of empirical evidence: The tropical, runaway hotspot did not happen in spite of massive amounts of CO2 emissions released into the atmosphere; ergo, the IPCC was wrong, again; the billion - dollar climate model predictions were wrong, again; alarmist, agenda - driven scientists» claims of climate doomsday were wrong, again; and, the fanatical anti-CO2 green lobby was wrong, as always.

While these ideas have obvious applications to climate change and national security, I think Danzig's ideas also have broad applicability to climate change: how we view climate model predictions, the inadequacy of our scenarios, and the failure to factor in the possibility of genuine surprises, or Dragon Kings.

This is one reason why coastal engineers wrote a paper urging everyone to ignore the climate model predictions on sea level and just watch the tide gauge trends.

With this information, I examine global climate model predictions of future climate to see whether the models change in what seem to be realistic ways.

No doubt the IPCC will assiduously avoid addressing such issues in AR5, and will distract the global media with measures of dramatically increasing CO2 emissions and climate model predictions of it's impact, (delayed by up to 15 years apparently!).

Confronted with obstinate refusal by nature to comply with climate model predictions / projections, she now has serious doubts and makes it very clear to the ragbag collection of looney warmista that, like it or not, they have a very uncomfortable reality to confront.

Second, even Santer's 2011 paper said 17 years would falsify climate model predictions.

The IPCC is rapidly losing credibility because ALL of their climate model predictions have failed principally because politicians have sanctioned upward amendments of recent temperature data and downwards amendment of older temperatures to hide the heat of the 1930's.

As «C3» has pointed out in numerous articles, climate model predictions are worthless, which this style of analysis confirms.

Economic model predictions are as inaccurate as climate model predictions.

In a previous «C3» article, it was well documented how badly the NASA - James Hansen climate model predictions have performed versus reality.

Once again, contradicting UN IPCC climate model predictions!

As noted by Pat Frank, Demetris Koutsoyiannis» new paper has been published, evaluating 18 years of climate model predictions of temperature and precipitation at 8 locales distributed worldwide.

So for example, as far as IPCC climate model predictions to the year 2100 are concerned, they are theoretically falsifiable, but not practically in our lifetime.