Sentences with phrase «climate model projections of»

An alternative approach uses simple climate model projections of global warming under stabilisation to scale AOGCM patterns of climate change assuming unmitigated emissions, and then uses the resulting scenarios to assess regional impacts (e.g., Bakkenes et al., 2006).

In a 2012 study, Williams and his colleagues looked at past tree ring samples from the Southwest in the context of both past droughts and climate model projections of VPD.

New climate model projections of the world's coral reefs reveal which reefs will be hit first by annual coral bleaching, an event that poses the gravest threat to one of the Earth's most important ecosystems.

More moderate versions of this theory rely primarily on climate model projections of sea ice and acknowledge a significant amount of noise from interannual variability.

This is an important façade for the IPCC to keep up, for without the overheated climate model projections of future climate change, the issue would be a lot less politically interesting (and government money could be used for other things... or simply not taken from taxpayers in the first place).

Without the exaggerated alarm conjured from overly pessimistic climate model projections of climate change from carbon dioxide emissions, fossil fuels — coal, oil, gas — would regain their image as the celebrated agents of prosperity that they are, rather than being labeled as pernicious agents of our destruction.

A section of the piece on an emerging disconnect between climate model projections of warming and observations makes it clear that climate modelers have plenty of work to do.

Several media outlets are reporting that new research shows climate model projections of rainfall extremes may be «flawed» or «wrong».

Previous climate model projections of climate change accounted for external forcing from natural and anthropogenic sources but did not attempt to predict internally generated natural variability.

The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system.

New climate model projections of the world's coral reefs reveal which reefs will be hit first by annual coral bleaching, an event that poses the gravest threat to one of the Earth's most important ecosystems.

Not exact matches

A better understanding of the heating distributions required to robustly simulate strong MJOs in climate models will improve insights into the dynamics of the climate system and projections of future climate.

The research in Nature Climate Change signals that many climate models may be too conservative in their projections through this century, as they are not considering ice loss from the northeast portion of GreClimate Change signals that many climate models may be too conservative in their projections through this century, as they are not considering ice loss from the northeast portion of Greclimate models may be too conservative in their projections through this century, as they are not considering ice loss from the northeast portion of Greenland.

For projections of future temperature and precipitation during the near future (2021 - 2050) and the far future (2071 - 2100), the researchers used 11 different global climate models.

They used this data compilation to evaluate the quality of their regional atmospheric climate model, based on global climate projections that included several scenarios of anticipated climate change.

Therefore, also changes in land cover should be represented in climate models for projections of future climate,» concludes Francesco S.R. Pausata.

The new study builds on this earlier research, extending the projections globally using a variety of climate models and taking into account future population growth.

Two important advances since the last IPCC assessment have increased confidence in the use of models for both attribution and projection of climate changes.

This critical question is addressed using simulations from climate models based on projections of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols.

Richard Betts, head of climate impacts at the Hadley Centre of the U.K.'s Met office presented to reporters in Copenhagen today a new analysis of modeling data showing how conserving tropical forests is going to be crucial if the world is to make a target of 2 ˚C, even under the most conservative projections of how much carbon the forests contain.

The study was partially funded by Columbia University Research Initiatives for Science and Engineering (RISE) award; the Office of Naval Research; NOAA's Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections; Willis Research Network; and the National Science Foundation.

The goals of the project include reconstructing extreme climate changes from the recent past (1894 - 2014), using historically referenced data to assess near - future global climate model projections, and to ultimately use this analysis to investigate ecological problems in Chesapeake Bay, such as eelgrass diebacks.

Dr Pete Falloon of the Met Office Hadley Centre, who led the climate modelling, said «State - of - the - art high resolution climate models were used in this project alongside the latest UKCP09 climate projections.

Current climate change models indicate temperatures will increase as long as humans continue to emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but the projections of future precipitation are far less certain.

The uncertainty associated with future climate projections linked to economic possibilities of what people will do is far larger than the uncertainty associated with physical climate models.

The researchers then used a mathematical model that combined the conflict data with temperature and rainfall projections through 2050 to come up with predictions about the likelihood of climate - related violence in the future.

«Prior analyses have found that climate models underestimate the observed rate of tropical widening, leading to questions on possible model deficiencies, possible errors in the observations, and lack of confidence in future projections,» said Robert J. Allen, an assistant professor of climatology in UC Riverside's Department of Earth Sciences, who led the study.

«When we look forward several decades, climate models predict such profound loss of Arctic sea ice that there's little doubt this will negatively affect polar bears throughout much of their range, because of their critical dependence on sea ice,» said Kristin Laidre, a researcher at the University of Washington's Polar Science Center in Seattle and co-author of a study on projections of the global polar bear population.

On March 31 Muller testified in front of Congress and confirmed what mainstream climate scientists had been saying: Earth is warming in line with the projections of climate models.

The correction also reduces the projected warming of the region by 20 percent relative to projections of previous climate models.

This projection is unlike what has been predicted as a drying period by the majority of current climate models.

Computer model projections of future conditions analyzed by the Scripps team indicate that regions such as the Amazon, Central America, Indonesia, and all Mediterranean climate regions around the world will likely see the greatest increase in the number of «dry days» per year, going without rain for as many as 30 days more every year.

While this underestimate does not call into question the response of climate to carbon dioxide concentration in the IPCC models, the researchers say, it does suggest that a better understanding of what happened during the last 50 years could improve projections of future ecosystem changes.

The trends driven by earlier snowmelt are likely to as they are «are very much in line with the projections of future climate» from climate models, study co-author Berit Arheimer of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute said.

When this model was then applied to the future, they found that in a world of continuing high greenhouse gas emissions, the threshold for widespread drought - induced vascular damage would be crossed and initiate widespread tree deaths on average across climate model projections in the 2050s.

Scientists have developed and used Global Climate Models (GCMs) to simulate the global climate and make projections of future AT and other climatic variables under different carbon emission scenarios in the 21st cClimate Models (GCMs) to simulate the global climate and make projections of future AT and other climatic variables under different carbon emission scenarios in the 21st cclimate and make projections of future AT and other climatic variables under different carbon emission scenarios in the 21st century.

«The new work improves our understanding of history, allowing better model tests and allowing better assessment of how the ice responded to climate changes in the past,» Alley said, «and this will help in making better and more - reliable projections for the future.»

That could help with projections of climate models and hypotheses of broader changes to the rest of the ecosystem.

Air pollutant emission inventories are essential in measuring the impact of pollution on air quality and the climate, as they are fed into atmospheric and climate models to make projections for the future.

They brought up that they are skeptical of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports and of any model projections of climate Climate Change) reports and of any model projections of climate climate change.

«There are some climate projection models that suggest sugar maple may not prefer the climate so much in our neck of the woods in the future.

In summary the projections of the IPCC — Met office models and all the impact studies (especially the Stern report) which derive from them are based on specifically structurally flawed and inherently useless models.They deserve no place in any serious discussion of future climate trends and represent an enormous waste of time and money.As a basis for public policy their forecasts are grossly in error and therefore worse than useless.For further discussion and an estimate of the coming cooling see http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com

Another technique, called probabilistic inversion, would adjust a climate model's projections to reflect those experts» judgment of its probability.

Surface temperature from HadCRUT4 (black line) tracks the lower edge of the 5 - 95 % range of climate model projections (grey shading).

A recent paper by climate skeptic politician Viscount Christopher Monckton claimed scientists» model - based projections of climate change are overstated.

Of the many inane arguments that are made against taking action on climate change, perhaps the most fatuous is that the projections climate models offer about the future are too uncertain to justify taking steps that might inconvenience us in the present.

Themes: Aerosols, Arctic and Antarctic climate, Atmospheric Science, Climate modelling, Climate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellclimate, Atmospheric Science, Climate modelling, Climate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, MiscellClimate modelling, Climate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, MiscellClimate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, MiscellClimate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellclimate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellclimate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, MiscellClimate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellaneous.

Understanding how well climate models represent these processes will help reduce uncertainties in the model projections of the effects of global warming on the world's water cycle.

«This work was a foundational reference case for the recently released RCP4.5 model scenario, one of four scenarios that will be used by modeling groups around the globe to make realistic projections of future climate change,» said Dr. Steven J. Smith, scientist at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between PNNL and the University of Maryland, and lead research author.

Future ocean projections for the year 2100 were compiled from all available data generated by Earth Systems Models as part of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Taylor et al., 2012) as in Mora et al. (2013).