Sentences with phrase «climate model simulations predicted»

There is a new myth circulating in the climate contrarian blogosphere and mainstream media that a figure presented in the «leaked» draft Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report shows that the planet has warmed less than previous IPCC report climate model simulations predicted.

Over the past forty years, the ice cover in summer has shrunk by more than half, with climate model simulations predicting that the remaining half might be gone by mid-century unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced rapidly.

Following the AD 1258 eruption, the climate model simulations predict a drop of 2C, but the tree ring - based reconstruction shows only about a 0.5 C cooling.

«Over the past forty years, the ice cover in summer has shrunk by more than half, with climate model simulations predicting that the remaining half might be gone by mid-century unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced rapidly.»

Not exact matches

Scientists are checking advanced climate simulation models against existing data to find that they're running right on track to better predict drastic climate change

Using Mg / Ca paleothermometry from the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber from the past 500 k.y. at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 871 in the western Pacific warm pool, we estimate the tropical Pacific climate sensitivity parameter (λ) to be 0.94 — 1.06 °C (W m − 2) − 1, higher than that predicted by model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum or by models of doubled greenhouse gas concentration forcing.

However, satellite observations are notably cooler in the lower troposphere than predicted by climate models, and the research team in their paper acknowledge this, remarking: «One area of concern is that on average... simulations underestimate the observed lower stratospheric cooling and overestimate tropospheric warming... These differences must be due to some combination of errors in model forcings, model response errors, residual observational inhomogeneities, and an unusual manifestation of natural internal variability in the observations.»

Using Mg / Ca paleothermometry from the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber from the past 500 k.y. at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 871 in the western Pacific warm pool, we estimate the tropical Pacific climate sensitivity parameter (λ) to be 0.94 — 1.06 °C (W m − 2) − 1, higher than that predicted by model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum or by models of doubled greenhouse gas concentration forcing.

I think there is an important context here that is easy to lose in all of the emphasis on the thing that the trees don't appear to be doing well w / (i.e. the response to the high - frequency cooling events associated primarily with explosive volcanic eruptions): that's, the thing that the trees appear to be doing remarkably well with, i.e. capturing the long - term trends and low - frequency variability that is predicted by the climate model simulations.

Direct comparison of the radiances predicted by the model to those observed by AIRS in the thermal spectral regions dominated by water vapor absorption provides a means of assessing the simulation of water vapor in the climate model at the high level of detail provided by spectral measurements.

In my experience this is certainly the case if you talk about the simulations as predictions rather than projections — the climate models are not predicting what the weather will be on the 5th of May 2051 — they are providing projections of the climate based on emission scenarios and initial conditions.

The results of several current climate model simulations fail to predict this large observed variation in tropical energy budget.

The fact that the CMIP simulations ensemble mean can reproduce the 1970 — 2010 US SW temperature increase without inclusion of the AMO (the AMO is treated as an intrinsic natural climate vari - ability that is averaged out by taking an ensemble mean of individual simulations) suggests that the CMIP5 models» predicted US SW temperature sensitivity to the GHG has been significantly (by about a factor of two) overestimated.

Put another way, these billion - dollar, taxpayer - funded super-computer model simulations have performed atrociously, and are entirely worthless at predicting future climate scenarios.

«The fact that the CMIP simulations ensemble mean can reproduce the 1970 — 2010 US SW temperature increase without inclusion of the AMO (the AMO is treated as an intrinsic natural climate variability that is averaged out by taking an ensemble mean of individual simulations) suggests that the CMIP5 models» predicted US SW temperature sensitivity to the GHG has been significantly (by about a factor of two) overestimated.»

The hypothesis and the computer model simulation used to predict global climate has consistently failed.

Dr Dyson says that current simulation models of climate fail to account for some important factors, thus their results contain too much error to reliably predict future trends.

«A strong warming and severe drought predicted on the basis of the ensemble mean of the CMIP climate models simulations is supported by our regression analysis only in a very unlikely case of the continually increasing AMO at a rate similar to its 1970 — 2010 increase» 7

The new position statement is equivocal, beginning with the observation that «the AAPG membership is divided on the degree of influence that anthropogenic CO2 has on recent and potential global temperature increases», and going on to say «Certain climate simulation models predict that the warming trend will continue, as reported through NAS, AGU, AAAS, and AMS.

Why would anyone expect climate model simulations of the global temperature record to predict the «pause», when ocean models are not specifically set up to have the necessary capability to model such large - scale incursions of deep - ocean cold water.

If you are trying to test the hypothesis that climate models have not predicted the pause since 1998, then you should be comparing trends between models and observations, rather than seeing if the observed temperature anomalies lie within a broad envelope of climate model simulations.

The accuracy of the simulations of GST by IPCC would also be improved significantly by introducing the influence of fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions into their climate models; thus, global warming behavior could be more accurately predicted

Climate models are computer simulations which are supposed to predict the impact on the climate from increasing levels Climate models are computer simulations which are supposed to predict the impact on the climate from increasing levels climate from increasing levels of CO2.

You state «Why would anyone expect climate model simulations of the global temperature record to predict the «pause», when ocean models are not specifically set up to have the necessary capability to model such large - scale incursions of deep - ocean cold water.

Michaels and Landsea, in a paper submitted over a year ago (prior to Emanuel and Webster papers that was published in late 2005), they attempted to discredit the climate model simulations saying that they they were incapable of accurately predicting tropical cyclone intensity (which is mostly correct).

Climate model simulations are used to predict how much warming should be expected for any given increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

After a few infrared measurements on summer nights showed that the amount of heat being radiated from the atmosphere was much less than some climate models predicted, he began an intensive study resulting in his own computer simulations based on available atmospheric data and well - known laws of infrared physics.